Monthly Archives: March 2010

The sudden dip in March 16′s InTrade ObamaCare prediction market was an intentional coup.

Here’s the latest discussion.

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Market Trading | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Allegedly, an idiot pressed the wrong button on March 16′s InTrade ObamaCare prediction market. Do you buy it?

Marcus Shea: Here’s the most likely scenario as to what happened here: Somebody had a decent short position. Say they had about 65 shares (the volume bars indicate that this was likely a < 100 share transaction, ie, < $5 … Continue reading

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Market Trading | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | 10 Comments

UK political prediction markets at Smarkets

Just opened.

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Genesis, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

InTrade prediction markets “got health care wrong”… — dixit Daniel Gross of Slate, a site I will no longer read.

Slate’s Daniel Gross: Don’t Short Obama Why political futures markets got the health care bill so wrong. By Daniel Gross Posted Monday, March 22, 2010, at 6:05 PM ET It would be very difficult to tote up all the times … Continue reading

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Post-Mortem | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

Paul Krugman Makes a Boo Boo.

In Paul Krugman’s blog entry, Done, at 4:39pm (EDT) on March 21, 2010, he commented: “OK, nothing is sure in this world. Intrade is still giving Obamacare a 2.2% chance of failing, …” He was talking about the InTrade market … Continue reading

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Market Transaction Costs, Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

Michael Lewis on Imus – [VIDEO]

Posted in Finance, History, The Global Economy | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Does InTrade participate on its 2012 Republication Nomination prediction markets?

A mysterious InTrade forum user (could be a trader or could be John Delaney) has posted this: ***** Newbie Joined: 24/01/2010 15:58:35 Messages: 1 Original thread at midasoracle.org: So the actor has to a) not care about the transaction fee … Continue reading

Posted in Exchange & Market Management, Exchange Liquidity, Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Makers (Automated), Market Makers (Human), Market Prices & Probabilities, Market Trading, Market Transaction Costs | Tagged , , , , , | 2 Comments

Health Care Reform Explained

I watched part of the U.S. Health Care Reform bill passage on Sunday, March 21, 2010. Combined with the political commentary, it was pretty clear that there is a lot of misinformation. A particularly extreme right-wing viewpoint (along with moronic … Continue reading

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Economics, Politics, The Global Economy | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

BetFair’s Mark Davis on Internet gambling regulations in the UK

The Bottom Line – Radio 4 “Evan Davis and his panel discuss rivals and regulation.“ Mark Davis was censored edited.

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The Real Arithmetic Of The Health Care Reform

The Real Arithmetic Of The Health Care Reform – NYT – by a former CBO director. Required reading for Paul Hewitt. – - ADDENDUM More info on health care reform on Memeorandum, Politico and Slate.

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics, Predictions - Forecasts | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments