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- Inside Apple — [VIDEO]
- Mitt Romney’s taxes — [LINKS]
- A critique of Apple’s multimedia iBooks. — [LINK]
- Does Apple lack “generosity”? — [LINKS]
- Apple Education Push — [LINKS]
- Water Crystals — [DOCUMENT]
- Apple’s e-book software will allow publishers to make textbooks more interactive. — [LINKS + VIDEO]
- Alain Soral is France’s most dangerous intellectual… (dangerous for the French plutocrats, that is). — [VIDEO]
- Computers thru time — [CHART]
- NASA has finally understood the theorical basis of LENR (low-energy nuclear reactions). — [VIDEO]
- Why Samsung is no Apple — [VIDEO]
- Mitt Romney @ Bain Capital — [VIDEO]
- Central banks should set up prediction markets. — [LINK]
- Max Keiser on NADEX — [VIDEO]
- New Hampshire prediction markets screwed up political forecasting in 2008. Will they be right this time? — [CHARTS]
- The real reasons why prediction markets are accurate. — [LINK]
- Much better than a bike… and more affordable than a SegWay… –> The Me-Mover — [VIDEO]
- InTrade is not predictive, says notable financial journalist. — [SCREENSHOT]
- Drudge links directly to InTrade prediction markets, bypassing journalos. — [SCREENSHOT]
- BetFair’s glitch ruins a set of £23m prediction markets. — [LINKS]
Monthly Archives: January 2010
The Internal Revenue Service is examining whether equity swaps help banks avoid taxes by masking who really owns the shares underlying the instruments.
“Federal authorities are scrutinizing certain financial derivatives that may enable Wall Street banks to avoid collecting billions of dollars in withholding taxes on stock dividends.”
Posted in Finance, Financial Markets, Regulations
Tagged derivatives, Internal Revenue Service, IRS
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iPredict’s first conditional prediction markets
Note to our good friend Eric Crampton: – They are event derivatives, not “stocks”. I REQUEST A KIWI CORRECTION.
Bill Gates now uses Twitter. — Paul Hewitt and David Pennock should use it too.
http://twitter.com/billgates http://twitter.com/midasoracle http://torontopm.wordpress.com/ http://blog.oddhead.com/
Republican Scott Brown has become the Senator-elect from Massachusetts.
Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics
Tagged election, elections, InTrade, Martha Coakley, Massachusetts, Nate Silver, Politics, prediction market, prediction markets, Scott Brown, Ted Kennedy, United States Senate, US politics, US Senate
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InTrade servers were down on Mass. election night.
- “Unbelievable.” – “this is terrible” – “Absolutely pathetic Intrade.” Were some reactions by the event derivative traders.
Massachusetts special election: Nate Silver knowns nothing. —REDUX
Nate Silver: There are many assumptions in this model which may not be valid []. Although I believe that these are generally a fairly well-balanced set of assumptions relative to the universe of possible assumptions (i.e. alternate sets of assumptions … Continue reading
Can a conditional prediction market play chess?
The Hanson–Moldbug debate
Massachusetts special election: Nate Silver knowns nothing.
6 scenarios United States Senate special election in Massachusetts, 2010
You can’t have accumulator bets on the weather of neighboring regions…
… because “if it snows in one city, it’s likely to snow in another city.” In other words, these weren’t independent events. Via Barry Ritholtz (author of Bailout Nation)
Posted in Betting
Tagged accumulator bet, accumulator bets, Bet, bets, Betting, bookmaker, bookmakers, Christmas, Great Britain, Ladbrokes, United Kingdom, weather, White Christmas bet, White Christmas bets
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