Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Monthly Archives: October, 2008

Will Florida vote for Barack Obama or John McCain?

Here’s a quick roundup of the state polls and of the prediction markets… for the state of Florida.
Data were taken around 1:00 pm —this Friday, October 31, 2008.
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#1. PREDICTION MARKETS
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InTrade: Florida will vote Barack Obama.

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HubDub: Florida will vote Barack Obama.
Who will win Florida in the 2008 Presidential Election?
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BetFair: Florida will vote for Barack Obama.

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#2. [...]

How do the HubDub prediction markets work? How can I predict the upcoming news?

Download this post if you don’t see the video below:
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Hubdub screencast from Rob on Vimeo.

Why would an event derivative trader inform his/her fellow traders about pieces of information that give clues about the future outcome of an event that they all bet on?

- Why did Jenni Peterson give clues to her competitors?
- Why didn’t she keep the information (see comments #6 and #7) close to her chest instead?
- Do the traders who use play money are more talkative than the traders who use real money?
- Shouldn’t an event derivative trader beam out false signals instead of helping [...]

Would InTrade or BetFair have done a better job predicting how many people would see the Barack Obama infomercial?

As I disclose on the other blog (Midas Oracle .COM), the HubDub traders wrongly thought that the (Socialist) Barack Obama informercial would have be seen by “more than 50 million”. No, no, no, no. It was 33.5 million, according to Nielsen. The HubDub traders were too optimistic.
Would the InTrade or BetFair traders have done a [...]

Midas Oracle is going to do well during this upcoming economic recession.

Hopefully…
By the way, blogging was born during the last economic recession.
UPDATE: Felix Salmon explains the economics of blogs.
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Electoral college map prediction for the 2008 US presidential election —based on state polls and prediction markets

Wanna know who is going to win on November 4?
Do scroll down.
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Contents:

a visual roundup of the odds for the 2008 US electoral college
the latest news about the race for the White House
a visual roundup of various electoral maps based on state polls
more odds

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ODDS FROM THE PREDICTION MARKETS
2008 US Electoral College
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- This is a dynamic electoral [...]

Barry Ritholtz has a new home.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/
His blog (The Big Picture) is now powered by WordPress —of course.
Best wishes to him.
I disagree with Barry politically, and about what to think of the prediction markets —but Barry is a very nice person, and his blog is highly informative.
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Justin Wolfers won the World Series.

You should read:
- Philadelphia’s baseball team (the Phillies) won the World Series —and it happens that prediction market expert Justin Wolfers also lives and works in Philadelphia, PA.
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TradeSports:

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HubDub:

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Yet another indispensable set of prediction markets that HubDub is the only exchange to run

To discover it, click here before 8 p.m. tonite, this Wednesday, October 29, 2008.
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UPDATE:

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Enterprise Prediction Markets = The wisdom of crowds comes to the enterprise.

Here are short excerpts of the Forrester report on enterprise prediction markets and companies that provide software for enterprise prediction markets.
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The Forrester executive summary:
The “wisdom of crowds” is capturing the attention of corporate strategists across the globe, and, as a result, many are now looking to prediction markets — speculative markets in which traders collectively [...]

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