Monthly Archives: October 2008

Will Florida vote for Barack Obama or John McCain?

Posted on October 31, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Here’s a quick roundup of the state polls and of the prediction markets… for the state of Florida. Data were taken around 1:00 pm —this Friday, October 31, 2008. – #1. PREDICTION MARKETS – InTrade: Florida will vote Barack Obama. … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, BetFair, Florida, HubDub, InTrade, John McCain, polls, prediction markets, US politics, US presidential elections | Leave a comment

How do the HubDub prediction markets work? How can I predict the upcoming news?

Posted on October 31, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Download this post if you don’t see the video below: – Hubdub screencast from Rob on Vimeo.

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Explainers, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, Market Trading | Tagged HubDub, prediction markets | Leave a comment

Why would an event derivative trader inform his/her fellow traders about pieces of information that give clues about the future outcome of an event that they all bet on?

Posted on October 31, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- Why did Jenni Peterson give clues to her competitors? – Why didn’t she keep the information (see comments #6 and #7) close to her chest instead? – Do the traders who use play money are more talkative than the … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Psychology | Tagged betting markets, competition, event derivative markets, event derivative traders, HubDub, Jenni Peterson, play-money prediction markets, prediction markets, solidarity, traders | 7 Comments

Would InTrade or BetFair have done a better job predicting how many people would see the Barack Obama infomercial?

Posted on October 31, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

As I disclose on the other blog (Midas Oracle .COM), the HubDub traders wrongly thought that the (Socialist) Barack Obama informercial would have be seen by “more than 50 million”. No, no, no, no. It was 33.5 million, according to … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, BetFair, HubDub, infomercials, InTrade, prediction markets, ratings, Ross Perot, TV, viewers | 4 Comments

Midas Oracle is going to do well during this upcoming economic recession.

Posted on October 31, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Hopefully… By the way, blogging was born during the last economic recession. UPDATE: Felix Salmon explains the economics of blogs. -

Posted in Business, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, Inventions & Innovations, Prediction Journalism, The Internet | Tagged bloggers, blogging, Midas Oracle, Open Media | Leave a comment

Electoral college map prediction for the 2008 US presidential election —based on state polls and prediction markets

Posted on October 30, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Wanna know who is going to win on November 4? Do scroll down. – Contents: a visual roundup of the odds for the 2008 US electoral college the latest news about the race for the White House a visual roundup … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, BetFair, betting markets, event derivative markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), HubDub, InTrade, Iowa Electronic Markets, John McCain, NewsFutures, polls, prediction markets, Predictions, US politics, US presidential elections | 1 Comment

Barry Ritholtz has a new home.

Posted on October 30, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/ His blog (The Big Picture) is now powered by WordPress —of course. Best wishes to him. I disagree with Barry politically, and about what to think of the prediction markets —but Barry is a very nice person, and his … Continue reading →

Posted in Finance, Resources - References | Tagged Barry Ritholtz, bloggers, blogging, Finance, Open Media, The Big Picture, Wall Street | Leave a comment

Justin Wolfers won the World Series.

Posted on October 30, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

You should read: – Philadelphia’s baseball team (the Phillies) won the World Series —and it happens that prediction market expert Justin Wolfers also lives and works in Philadelphia, PA. – TradeSports: – HubDub: -

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Sports | Tagged baseball, HubDub, InTrade, Justin Wolfers, Phillies, prediction markets, Sports, World Series | Leave a comment

Yet another indispensable set of prediction markets that HubDub is the only exchange to run

Posted on October 29, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

To discover it, click here before 8 p.m. tonite, this Wednesday, October 29, 2008. – UPDATE: -

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, HubDub, informercial, prediction markets, TV, TV ratings, US politics, viewers | 1 Comment

Enterprise Prediction Markets = The wisdom of crowds comes to the enterprise.

Posted on October 29, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Here are short excerpts of the Forrester report on enterprise prediction markets and companies that provide software for enterprise prediction markets. – The Forrester executive summary: The “wisdom of crowds” is capturing the attention of corporate strategists across the globe, … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Cases, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Consulting, Exchanges & Markets, Explainers | Tagged A. Huberman - Bernardo Huberman, Adam, Adam Siegel, Alberta, Bernardo A. Huberman, Bernd Ankenbrand, Boston Consulting Group, Calgary, California, Canada, Center for Energy Commerce, CEO, Charles R. Plott, Chicago, Chris Hibbert, Client Resource Center, Collective Intelligence, corporate prediction markets, David Perry, David Shahar, Director, EDS, Elad Amir, Emile Servan-Schreiber, ENERGY ECONOMIST, energy policy, enterprise prediction markets, Exago, Forrester, France, George Mason University, George Tziralis, Germany, Google, Greece, Hollywood Stock Exchange, HP Services & HP Labs, IBM, Illinois, Information Dynamics Lab, IntelliMarket Systems, internal prediction markets, Israel, Justin Wolfers, Kansas, Kay-Yut Chen, Ken Kittlitz, KPMG, L.A., Littal Shemer Haim, Maryland, Maurice Balick, Michael Giberson, Microsoft, Nashville, Nathan Kontny, Noam Danon, Oliver Bernhard Pedersen, Paris, Pedro Da Cunha, Pennsylvania, Peter Gollowitsch, Portugal, prediction market consultants, Prediction Market Software, prediction markets, private prediction markets, R. Plott - Charles Plott, Rawls College of Business, Robin Hanson, Software architect / Zocalo project manager, software for prediction markets, Tennessee, Texas, Texas Tech University, United States, University of Kansas, University of Pennsylvania's Wharton Business School, Virginia, Virtual Specialist, VP Business development, VP R&D, wisdom of crowds, Yahoo! | 2 Comments

Monthly Archives: October 2008

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