Monthly Archives: April 2008

Mathematically speaking, as the saying goes, no one wins the lottery. Sports betting, by contrast, involves skill, and it is possible, although very difficult, to consistently win money on it. Sports bettors are closer to stock or commodities buyers than to people who buy lottery tickets. How much difference is there, after all, between betting on the future price of wheat (an activity banned in some states in the nineteenth century) and betting on the performance of a baseball team?

Posted on April 30, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Guess who said that in 2006. – Previously: BetFair’s Mark Davies on sports betting -

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2020′s PREDICTION MARKET JOURNALISM = Polls + Experts + Prediction Markets

Posted on April 30, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- Justin Wolfers interview: [...] Wolfers predicted that cable news shows would turn to prediction-market experts for analysis in 2008. “My forecast is that they’ll either have someone in the studio whose job it is to track the markets, or … Continue reading →

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THE PLUNGE — “A prediction market, by essence, can’t predict an upset.” —dixit Koleman Strumpf. — Well, that upset is a nice one. I want more like that one.

Posted on April 30, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- InTrade, just after the announcement (right-click on the chart): -

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Great WordPress Plugin Of The Day

Posted on April 30, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- Cross-Linker by Jan Hvizdak Write the words InTrade or BetFair in your post, and the plugin will automatically add the appropriate web links. Of course, the plugin won’t mess with your already, manually embedded links. Generally speaking, it won’t … Continue reading →

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Can a one-person company harness internally the wisdom of crowds?

Posted on April 30, 2008 by Chris F. Masse
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The Experts versus The Wisdom Of Crowds

Posted on April 30, 2008 by Chris F. Masse
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Where is Tom W. Bell when we need him?

Posted on April 30, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Yahoo!’s Political Dashboard does not link to InTrade. The Wall Street Journal does link to InTrade. – Does anybody know whether full prediction market journalism can be practiced on America‘s soil? Or do we have to go offshore to be … Continue reading →

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JUSTIN WOLFERS’ EXTATIC “2020″ VISION BECOMING REALITY? Spot, number one, that they chronicle the horse race thru the lens of the real-markets prediction markets (and not thru the polls), and, number two, that they link to InTrade —(a root link, not a deep link, though). If that journalistic trend proves to be steady, that means that my pessimism was wrong, and that I risk being viewed as an imbécile, now.

Posted on April 29, 2008 by Chris F. Masse
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The Rise of Crowdsourcing: Creative Wisdom of the Crowd — Tuesday, May 20th, 2008 at 6:00pm — @ Bo Cowgill’s Alma Mater

Posted on April 29, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

The Rise of Crowdsourcing: Creative Wisdom of the Crowd – @ Stanford Business School, Stanford University, California, U.S.A. – 2008-05-20 –> Predictify & Cambrian House – Via Daniel Horowitz (Business and Technology Consultant) -

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BetFair Education has now a sub-site within the BetFair blog.

Posted on April 29, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

BetFair Education – The navigation is easy —see the menu on the left-side sidebar. I encountered only one 404. They are using Movable Type, and not WordPress, alas. The list of posts is comprehensive. They could have integrated their events … Continue reading →

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