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Does anybody know whether full prediction market journalism can be practiced on America’-s soil? Or do we have to go offshore to be able to link to InTrade?
What does the law say?
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Cross-Linker by Jan Hvizdak
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I have tested all the WordPress.org plugins in this category, and Cross-Linker (from Jan Hvizdak) is the best ever.
Recommended for prediction market journalism (or else).
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I’-m Chris Masse and I approved this message. 
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Guess who said that in 2006.
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Previously: BetFair’-s Mark Davies on sports betting
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The Rise of Crowdsourcing: Creative Wisdom of the Crowd – @ Stanford Business School, Stanford University, California, U.S.A. – 2008-05-20
–->- Predictify &- Cambrian House
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Via Daniel Horowitz (Business and Technology Consultant)
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Nigel Eccles:
How did you forget yadda yadda yadda. [ Hilarious. ]
Nice list, roughly makes sense but lots to disagree with (as you would expect). However one clear mistake is BetFair. They should be valued at $3 billion. They just did a recapitalisation which distributed 10% of the company in cash to shareholders (I got the check this morning). It was at a valuation of ?1.5 billion, so unless you are even more bearish on the exchange rate that works out at $3 billion.
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Henry Blodget:
Thanks for the info on Betfair–-that’-s exactly the sort of concrete detail we’-re especially looking for. We’-ll see if we can confirm, and, if so, the valuation will drop to $3 billion.
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And there’-s another interesting comment, on the other page:
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Insider:
why the gratuitous —- and painfully ignorant – -swipes at the USA?
can’-t you do your job without the silly —- and, again, factually incorrect —- morals lectureds and editorializing?
actually the U.K. is one of the few countries in the world where online gambling is essentially legal (though the U.K. still hasn’-t sorted out all the laws it is creating to govern online betting)
many EU countries are literally at each others throats about how/when to tax internet gambling (principally because state-run lotteries are specifically carved out of the E.U. free trade agreements)
japan, australia and china have sever and horrible and harsh punishments for internet gambling
of course, pretty much all of the islamic world puts people to death or dismemberment for breaking qu’-ran-ic law – and gambling is totally and utterly forbidden under the qu’-ran
it is you who are “-of arbitrary morals”-. stick to blogging.
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Insider’-s comment sounds informed, but he/she should have avoided the nasty last line.
“-Stick to blogging”- is an insult I was served with, recently, (by a UK-based financial trader), so I can relate. But that’-s never helpful. Educate that blogger, instead. You’-ll get a better ROI, believe me.
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BetFair Education
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Both InTrade and NewsFutures are in the process of overhauling their website. We’-ll see within the next weeks what they have to offer.
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Mike,
My Good Lord,
Would prediction market journalism (that is, showing to the normal people on the street that prediction markets can help understand better baseball games, or whatever else, on top of being fun and pure) fit your criteria of non-bogosity and interestingness?
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Let’-s hope that that WSJ columnist is right.
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Another MSM journalist who draws heavily on Koleman Strumpf’-s work and does not cite him, or his colleague (Paul Rhode).
What a shame.
PDF file of the paper on historical prediction markets
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