Monthly Archives: March 2008

Last year’s best April Fool’s Day joke had something to do with the wisdom of crowds.

- CNET: Wikipedia founder’s bold experiment Diagnosed with cataracts, Jimmy Wales invites first 100 people who show up at his home to perform surgery. “There may be some trial and error, but I’m confident the community will make the right … Continue reading

Posted in Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Humor | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Will HedgeStreet USA, the hypothetical InTrade USA, and the hypothetical TradeFair USA, be regulated in the future by a merged SEC+CFTC regulatory structure?

That sounds like a good prediction market proposal. – As you all know: The SEC regulates the securities markets (which support capital formation). The CFTC regulates the futures markets (which exist to discover prices). The SEC is rules based, meaning … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Market Proposals), Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Regulations | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

WORST THAN ELIOT SPITZER (if it were possible): Formula One boss, Max Mosley, had sado-masochist sex with 5 prostitutes, for 5 hours (!!), reenacting a concentration camp scene (!!) in which he played the role of both Nazi guard and inmate.

Here are the ugly photos. [UPDATE: Photos and videos have been taken down.] The associations representing the victims of the Nazi regime are all up in arms, as you may imagine. UPDATE #2: The Times of London says he should … Continue reading

Posted in Ethics, Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments

Is BetFair Poker a booby trap for the gullible novices? Does The Sporting Exchange (the operator of the BetFair brands) help gangs plucking down innocent recreational poker players?? To get an inkling, don’t read The Guardian, seeded by the BetFair spin doctor; read Midas Oracle.

Rab Bibater commenting here: [...] the dark side of online poker – the fact that many players are colluding using devices such as MSN messenger; this is something that the average innocent, who decides to play online poker, is better … Continue reading

Posted in Betting, Ethics, Gambling | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

The video that the technologically retarded BetFair spin doctor should watch.

Blogs: What are they good for? – - Robert Scoble’s blog Mashable blog – UPDATE: More about blogging from Tech Crunch.

Posted in History, Information Technology, Prediction Journalism, The Internet | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Google is THE problem, but BetFair should discover the solution.

Here’s why. Take a look at the following Google search results: – - PROBLEM #1: GOOGLE LINKS PROMINENTLY TO THE POST THAT PUBLICIZED THE RUMOR. SOLUTION: Updating that post with the link to the post that debunks that rumor. RISK: … Continue reading

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, Prediction Journalism | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments

The economic model that BetFair Australia operates under does not compensate the industry for putting on the show.

… said some kind of horse racing official from Down Under. Via mister Betting Market.

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Business, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

A little international HELLO to the friends of prediction markets around the world

Infontology (I like that blog name): den 17 januari 2008 Informationssamhället och nässlorna Ett informationssamhälle är ett samhälle där nässlorna kunde genomgÃ¥ en mutation och sluta brännas, utan att nÃ¥gon hade märkt det. /Simon – 09:46 f.m. | Permalink Comments … Continue reading

Posted in Humor, Miscellaneous | Tagged | 2 Comments

Let’s face it. The political world doesn’t give the first fig about the prediction markets, InTrade, BetFair, Betdaq, NewsFutures, HubDub, Robin Hanson, Justin Wolfers, and the rest of our little clique.

Some of our luminaries have had their vapors and have boldly stated that the public [*] prediction markets would soon take over the free world and become the forecasting tool of choice for decision makers. Since our movement has started, … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Leading & Lagging Indicators, Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

LinkedIn feed of your network updates

UPDATE: Following my protestation published in the post below, LinkedIn has just fixed the problem I described and its network update feeds do now output both a title and a body (a.k.a. description). The body contains information and links, as … Continue reading

Posted in Information Technology, Midas Oracle Network | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment