Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Monthly Archives: March, 2007

Recession in the US in 2007? Seems like the Bears will lose this one.


Warning:

TradeSports is unregulated in the Netherlands Antilles (a place that lives off drug trafficking and money laundering). — InTrade is unregulated in Ireland.
TradeSports / InTrade are not members of the Independent Betting Arbitration Service. —
TradeSports — SportsBook Review rating: C+ (Scale: A+ to F-) — Bookmakers Review rating: 3.5 / 5 —
InTrade — [...]

American Idol prediction markets: about 60,000 transactions at InTrade-TradeSports


Warning:

TradeSports is unregulated in the Netherlands Antilles (a place that lives off drug trafficking and money laundering). — InTrade is unregulated in Ireland.
TradeSports / InTrade are not members of the Independent Betting Arbitration Service. —
TradeSports — SportsBook Review rating: C+ (Scale: A+ to F-) — Bookmakers Review rating: 3.5 / 5 —
InTrade — [...]

Bo Cowgill’s Google has been 60 times more useful to Midas Oracle than David Pennock’s Yahoo!.

Visits to Midas Oracle .org from search engines (September 26, 2006, to March 30, 2007):
Google Search: 16,001
Yahoo Search: 270
(((All that said in all due respect to David Pennock. )))

Midas Oracle’s coverage of the prediction markets is massive and colorful.

by Dallas

DIY PREDICTION MARKETS: Foresight Exchange or Inkling Markets or Flutter??

Robin Hanson (PDF file):
[...] I created the first internal corporate idea futures at Xanadu in 1989, and in 1994 my design and inspiration led to one of the first web markets, then called Idea Futures, for which I received the Prix Ars Electronica Golden Nica, a prestigious electronic art prize. Now called the Foresight Exchange, [...]

Are Exchange-Traded Futures Poised to Revolutionize the Credit Derivative Market?

Futures Industry magazine:
The credit derivatives market is one of today’s most important over-the-counter markets. The growth of the market has outperformed all expectations, rising from a notional value of $5 trillion in 2004 to over $20 trillion in 2006, according to the British Bankers Association. This phenomenal growth in the size of the market has [...]

Internet Gambling: The World Trade Organization busts the United States of America.

Background on the dispute between Antigua and the US of A on internet gambling and betting:
DISPUTE SETTLEMENT: DISPUTE DS285 — United States — Measures Affecting the Cross-Border Supply of Gambling and Betting Services
March 30, 2007’s WTO ruling: PDF file
VII. CONCLUSION
7.1 For the reasons set out in this Report, the Panel concludes that the United States [...]

BetOnSports founder Gary Kaplan, fugitive — BUSTED

New York Times: Authorities Arrest Founder of Internet Gambling Site

Your blog is linked to by the New York Times. How many incoming visitors?

Not that many.
Danny Sullivan (a search engine expert) got linked to by a March 15’s New York Times article (Google Adds a Safeguard on Privacy for Searchers):
[...] To date, 645 visits in all. [...]
I’m not impressed. Marginal Revolution and other big blogs can deliver much more than that, under the right circumstances.
Some of my awards [...]

Big trader to the other traders: LET’S LEAVE TRADESPORTS-INTRADE EN MASSE.

(No pun intended.)
“Dark Horse”:
Dark*Horse
Posted Thu March 29 2007 08:07 AM
The underlying question I have after reading this thread is why people are so attached to [TradeSports-InTrade]. Just walk away, as [TradeSports-InTrade] itself suggested in response to vary valid criticism. But do so with conviction…
Allow me to point out that traders have the power. Simply present [...]

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