Keith Jacks Gamble: simExchange is somewhat OK, but will remained confined in play-money land.

Keith Jacks Gamble on Brian Shiau:

Thanks for the response. Ita€™s interesting to see examples of product news stories and how your markets responded. These examples suggest that your game share prices are connected with sales. Ia€™m not surprised and Keynes wouldna€™t be either. His beauty contest view explains exactly why prices on the simExchange are connected to sales despite the fact that game shares have no intrinsic connection to sales (no dividends based on sales, nor the possibility to liquidate based on actual sales). The tradersa€™ comments you mentioned confirm that traders have picked up on this point and are buying and selling in anticipation of other tradersa€™ actions. Certainly, a lot of trading on Wall Street works the same way.

My point that game shares have no intrinsic value, unlike Wall Street shares, has two implications. First, ita€™s one reason that prices on the simExchange may deviate more from actual sales than prices on Wall Street exchanges deviate from actual value. Importantly, this statement doesna€™t say that simExchanges prices will deviate more, nor does it say that any deviation will be large. Further, your simExchange has at least one advantage for keeping prices near sales that Wall Street does not have: your market makers have infinite resources to keep prices at reasonable levels. Second, although irrelevant since the simExchange uses play money, the fact that game shares have no intrinsic value prevents the simExchange from ever working with real money.

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