Monthly Archives: November 2006

confab.yahoo on prediction markets: Sunnyvale, Dec 13 5:30p

Posted on November 29, 2006 by David Pennock

I’m happy to announce the following public event: confab.yahoo on prediction markets: tapping the wisdom of crowds 5:30-8:00pm Wed Dec 13, 2006 Yahoo! Headquarters, Building C, Classroom 5 701 First Avenue, Sunnyvale, CA 94089 USA Join us for a public … Continue reading →

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Foresight Exchange vs. Hollywood Stock Exchange

Posted on November 29, 2006 by Chris F. Masse

… Which prediction exchange is the oldest? With two sub-questions: – Which one is the oldest commercial prediction exchange? —> HSX – Which one is the oldest continuously operating play-money prediction exchange? —> FX… … PROVIDING THAT YOU AGREE WITH … Continue reading →

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Google Gadget vs. Site Feed – ???

Posted on November 29, 2006 by Chris F. Masse

From the Google blog (whose author must be kidding, probably): Q: Why is it better to create gadgets rather than create feeds? A: First, gadgets are much more flexible. As a publisher, you control the format of your content. Second, … Continue reading →

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PLEASE, FILL IN THIS QUICK SURVEY.

Posted on November 28, 2006 by Chris F. Masse

— DEAR READERS, — OF ALL THE BLOG POSTS ON THE MIDAS ORACLE FRONTPAGE, WHICH ONE(S) SHOULD HAVE BEEN PUBLISHED ON THE SIDEBAR BLOG? — E-MAIL ME, USE THE CONTACT PAGE, OR POST A COMMENT JUST BELOW. — THANKS FOR … Continue reading →

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Prof. Bainbridge on Burton Malkiel on the efficient capital markets theory (ECMH)

Posted on November 28, 2006 by Chris F. Masse

Prof. Bainbridge on Burton Malkiel on the efficient capital markets theory (ECMH): The second pillar of Malkiel’s analysis is the efficient capital markets theory (ECMH). The fundamental thesis of the ECMH is that, in an efficient market, current prices always … Continue reading →

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Does the field of forecasting encompass prediction markets?

Posted on November 28, 2006 by Chris F. Masse

And the answer is… A RESOUNDING YES, if you can believe it —I sure can, but JC Kommer will disapprove. From the more than official Forecasting Principles site: A. Forecasting, the field 1. What does the field of forecasting encompass? … Continue reading →

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Economic Derivatives Auction Trader Motivations

Posted on November 27, 2006 by Jason Ruspini

The National Association for Business Economics’ experimental auction data for the October payrolls release seems to be unavailable, but let’s compare their forecasts to CME’s economic derivatives auction for the September release. NABE: CME: The CME numbers had more variance … Continue reading →

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HedgeStreet & the calmer than average Hurricane season

Posted on November 27, 2006 by Chris F. Masse

From The Tampa Tribune: 9: The number of named storms this year 17: The number of named storms predicted May 31 by a team at Colorado State University led by Professor William Gray — HedgeStreet had opened a top-notch Hurricane … Continue reading →

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Futures Fail to Predict Interest Rate Changes, Fed’s Poole Says.

Posted on November 27, 2006 by Chris F. Masse

Max Keiser (co-founder of the HSX) had this thought while reading this Bloomberg story: It underscores what people who trade markets know: markets can’t predict outcomes.

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Economies of scale in event markets?

Posted on November 27, 2006 by Alex Forshaw

This morning, a single buyer swamped the robust Tradesports Hillary-nomination market from 54.5% to 68.5% in one massive buy. I found this to be incredibly interesting on two levels. Firstly, the notion that someone who has presumably accumulated decent buying … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , | 4 Comments