Nominatibility and Electability – 2008 presidential prediction markets

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Via our usual suspect Mike Linksvayer (recently featured in the New York Times for his weird diet), David Schneider-Joseph (a Foresight Exchange fanboy) on how to measure real electability of the US presidential candidates. Go reading his reasoning. His conclusion:

Put this way, it&#8217-s not a surprise that candidates with greater party ties have a greater chance of being nominated than their electability deserves. But that&#8217-s not the same thing as saying that their electability is actually lower than that of their competition.