Tag Archives: wisdom of crowds

How do InTrades prediction markets work, and are they really accurate?

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Thanks to the InTrade person who uploaded the first CNBC segment on YouTube, and fixed the initial technical problem.

I renew my asking for the second CNBC segment to be uploaded at YouTube, too. [If someone else than InTrade does it, please hit me with the YouTube URL. Thanks.]

My analysis:

  1. InTrade-TradeSports CEO John Delaney does a good job explaining the mechanism of the wisdom of crowds.
  2. They cut professor Justin Wolfers too short. It&#8217-s a nuclear disaster &#8212-once again. Justin Wolfers is an admirable and ultra friendly person, a great prediction market researcher, a good prediction market analyst, and a wonderful blogger, but his TV appearances are, so far, totally crappy. The guy needs to hire a publicist who will teach him to flatten his Australian accent and to talk straight and plain &#8212-to go to the point real quick.
  3. &#8220-It seems like someone at CNBC decided at some point that they would NEVER address the legality issue.&#8221- – Dixit Deep Throat.
  4. After the broadcast of the video shot in Ireland, the camera goes back to the TV set, and, at this point, the comments from the journalists and the guest (Steve Forbes) show that they still don&#8217-t understand fully the prediction markets. They don&#8217-t have the right facts, and their analysis is not crystal clear.
  5. Overall, a good explainer on the prediction markets &#8212-taken into account that CNBC is an entertainment media. For deeper explainers, see the Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times, or Midas Oracle.

YouTube video (the last part was censored by InTrade-TradeSports CEO John Delaney – PRECISION: the discussion between the journalists and the guest on the TV set was suppressed)

APPENDIX: CNBC video + CNBC video #2

UPDATE: The second CNBC video segment that TradeSports-InTrade CEO John Delaney does not want you to see on YouTube

INTRADE-TRADESPORTS CEO JOHN DELANEY CENSORS CNBC ON YOUTUBE.

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– HE CENSORS THE END OF THE FIRST CNBC VIDEO SEGMENT TO FIT HIS MARKETING AGENDA.

– HE ORDERS THAT THE SECOND CNBC VIDEO SEGMENT NOT TO BE UPLOADED ON YOUTUBE.

THE PROOF OF THE CENSORSHIP:

YouTube video (whose last part was censored by InTrade-TradeSports CEO John Delaney – PRECISION: the discussion between the journalists and the guest on the TV set was suppressed)

PLEASE, SOMEBODY, DO UPLOAD THE FULL VIDEO SEGMENT ON YOUTUBE, UNCENSORED, AND HIT ME WITH ITS URL. I&#8217-LL RE-EMBED IT FOR EVERYONE TO SEE. THERE IS NO CENSORSHIP ON MIDAS ORACLE. WE ARE NEITHER IN CHINA NOR IN IRELAND. WE ARE FREE WORLD&#8217-S CITIZENS. WE WANT TO SEE THE NAKED TRUTH, NOT DOCTORED TAPES.

The second CNBC video segment that TradeSports-InTrade CEO John Delaney does not want you to see on YouTube

APPENDIX: CNBC video + CNBC video #2

APPENDIX: THE ULTIMATE THING THAT TRADESPORTS-INTRADE CEO JOHN DELANEY WANTED TO CENSOR BUT COULDN&#8217-T THANKS TO MIDAS ORACLE.

The second CNBC video on InTrades prediction markets is up and running.

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CNBC video + CNBC video #2

In both segments, the appearance of Justin Wolfers is a nuclear disaster. They cut him ultra short. Maybe because of his strong Australian accent, I don&#8217-t know. But the end result is bad. It&#8217-s a pity. Justin Wolfers would have had many interesting things to say.

PS: InTrade people, please, put that on YouTube and tip me when it is done, so I can embed those videos.

UPDATE: YouTube video (the last part was censored by InTrade-TradeSports CEO John Delaney – PRECISION: the discussion between the journalists and the guest on the TV set was suppressed)

UPDATE: The second CNBC video segment that TradeSports-InTrade CEO John Delaney does not want you to see on YouTube

CNBC airs an upbeat explainer about InTrades prediction markets.

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Via our good friend Jason Ruspini.

CNBC video + CNBC video #2

– Please, put that on YouTube, and then give me the YouTube URL. I&#8217-ll embed the video in another post.

– Who is that guy that they will interview later on, Jason??? [UPDATE: Serge Ravitch]

My observations:

  1. Quite upbeat. Almost an advertisement for InTrade.
  2. No mention whatsoever that InTrade is illegal in America.
  3. On the website, they call InTrade a &#8220-political futures market&#8221-.
  4. The InTrade critic was Barry Ritholtz. They just showed his blog. He wrote that the trading on InTrade is &#8220-pitifully&#8221- small.
  5. The first prediction market analyst they want to hear is InTrade CEO John Delaney. The second is professor Justin Wolfers. And that&#8217-s all.
  6. Steve Forbes asked whether &#8220-this thing&#8221- (InTrade) predicted Joe Biden &#8220-weeks ago&#8221-. The answer is that InTrade predicted Joe Biden some days ago.
  7. Joe Kerner put an emphasis on liquidity, whereas the emphasis should have been on the market as the mechanism that delivers a collective verdict.

UPDATE: YouTube video (the last part was censored by InTrade-TradeSports CEO John Delaney – PRECISION: the discussion between the journalists and the guest on the TV set was suppressed)

UPDATE: The second CNBC video segment that TradeSports-InTrade CEO John Delaney does not want you to see on YouTube

The John Edwards Non-Affair gives us an opportunity to look deep into the caldron of the wisdom of crowds.

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As you all know, The National Enquirer (a supermarket tabloid which pays its informants and sometimes publishes false news) has it that John Edwards has a &#8220-love child&#8221- from one of his former assistants (all this while his wife is dying of cancer), and that the whole story is being covered up, big time.

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Should the Wikipedia webpage on John Edwards mention that alleged scandal?

Well, the debate is raging inside Wikipedia.

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Michael Weiss of Gawker is misinformed about the wisdom of crowds.

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His Jason Calacanis-inspired critique of The Wisdom Of Crowds is an abyssal nullity.

James Surowiecki is a great thinker, and the principles behind the wisdom of crowds are effective. (see point #3.)

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • If you want your affiliation with the “Prediction Markets” group to appear on your LinkedIn profile, then click on “Edit Public Profile Settings”, and check the “Groups” option.
  • If you want to connect with InTrade CEO John Delaney on LinkedIn…
  • Do join the “Prediction Markets” group at LinkedIn, if you have a strong interest in the prediction markets or if you work in the prediction market industry. It’s free, and that’s a way for the LinkedIn visitors browsing stuff about prediction markets to stumble upon your resume / profile.
  • You can now join the LinkedIn group on Prediction Markets.
  • Nigel Eccles says that HubDub generates “data on peoples’ reputations for accurately analyzing and forecasting future events”.
  • I did drop BetFair from the Midas Oracle coverage of the prediction markets. They should re-establish the direct links, from their 2 frontpages, to the prediction markets on politics, finance, and the other socially valuable issues.
  • I dropped BetFair from the Midas Oracle coverage of the prediction markets. They should re-establish the direct links, from their 2 frontpages, to the prediction markets on politics, finance, and the other socially valuable issues.

Forrester recommend to add enterprise prediction markets in the company toolbox.

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Forrester recommend to view enterprise prediction markets as&#8230- addition &#8212-not substitution.

Excellent point.

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Prediction Markets Harness The Wisdom Of The Crowd To Predict The Future
Prediction Markets Bring A Market Function To The Gathering Of Information
Most Markets See Accuracy That Is At Least As Good As Traditional Forecasting Methods
Prediction Markets Have Substantive Benefits For The Enterprise&#8230-
&#8230-But Still Need Active Supervision To Ensure Success

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The &#8220-wisdom of crowds&#8221- is capturing the attention of corporate strategists across the globe, and, as a result, many are now looking to prediction markets — speculative markets in which traders collectively predict future events — to generate collective intelligence. For enterprises, prediction markets bring unique value: They focus on the future, aggregate diverse information pools that can be applied to multiple decision-making domains, create streams of actionable data suitable for executive decision-making, and can often cut through corporate politics and pressures at lower cost than traditional forecasting methods. Market researchers will, however, need to have an active hand in the management of these mechanisms, ensuring strong management support, the right incentives for traders, and a focus on appropriate questions. When executed properly, the value to the enterprise is enormous- as a result, Forrester believes that prediction markets will ultimately find a permanent home in the market research toolbox.

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James Surowiecki, author of The Wisdom of Crowds, sums up his book.

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Video #1

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Video #2

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • The FaceBook profiles of the 2 most important men of the field of prediction markets
  • THE HUMAN GADFLY WHOSE OBJECTIONS ROBIN HANSON IS DUCKING…???…
  • Google now considers Midas Oracle as a major blog.
  • Horizon 2015: A long-term strategic perspective for the real-money prediction markets
  • Join our group at LinkedIn to have your “Prediction Markets” badge on your profile. It’s ‘chic’. (“Groups” info should be set as “visible”, in your profile options.) We are 63 this early Saturday morning —keeps growing.
  • If you have been using PayPal to fund your InTrade, TradeSports or BetFair account, please, check that horror story.
  • 48 hours after the launch of the “Prediction Markets” group at LinkedIn, we have already 52 members —both prediction market luminaries and simple people (trading the event derivatives or collecting the market-generated probabilities).