#1 -above The Guardian… and far above BetFair.

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PREVIOUSLY: BetFair impose new “Premium Charges”… Do BetFair gag the critics, too?

UPDATE: They announce a Q&amp-A.

InTrade DOT NET – www.intrade.net

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This post is a very short review of their new website. I might publish a deeper review, later on.

The log line is that InTrade CEO John Delaney has ingested all the innovations that HubDub has brought to the prediction market scene since January 2007 (e.g., long and rich prediction market webpages that are indexed by the search engines, and use of social networking to boost trading) and has asked his technological team to clone those innovations for InTrade. This is great. I also appreciate that their charting system is satisfying. (The advanced charts seem to be of the right size, I have noticed. Neither too small, nor too big.)

On the negative side, the execution is not as good as it should be &#8212-and I&#8217-m polite. But to be fair with them, they say their website is still in &#8220-beta&#8221- &#8212-so let&#8217-s give them time to improve their work.

Overall, it&#8217-s a good move, and it shows, as I have said for months, that Nigel Eccles of HubDub is having a profound impact on the prediction market industry.

UPDATE: I forgot to mention that InTrade.net presents probabilities expressed in percentage, not prices, which they also took from HubDub.

OLYMPIC MEDALS: The Los Angeles Times cites HubDub -but not BetFair, TradeSports, NewsFutures, or YooPick.

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Los Angeles Times

Could it be because the journalist had googled &#8220-Olympics&#8221- for his/her research?

HubDub is the only prediction exchange whose prediction market webpages are indexed well by Google.

SEO is key for marketing and P.R., folks &#8212-you see the evidence under your very nose with HubDub and the Olympics.

Why the BetFair model is partially obsolete

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I like BetFair and the BetFair people very much. I was the only blogger to talk up the BetFair starting price system and the BetFair brand-new bet-matching logic. But the other face of the coin is that 2 aspects of their model are rotten to the core.

BetFair was created in 1999 and started off in 2000. Since that time, 2 major things arrived on the world scene. Number one, we have seen the emergence of the prediction market approach. Number two, the Web has taken our lives, and Google has become the dominant Internet search engine. Here are how these 2 major trends are affecting BetFair negatively.

  1. Decimal Odds (a.k.a. Digital Odds). – The prediction market approach means that we attack the public with the news and their associated probabilistic predictions, expressed in percentages, where high prices mean high probabilities of happening. BetFair, at the contrary, approach the public with a betting universe and an arcane vocabulary (&#8221-backing&#8221- and &#8220-laying&#8221-) where low prices mean high probabilities of happening. That is totally counter intuitive.
  2. Non-Indexable Prediction Market Webpages. – Like it or not, Google is now the world&#8217-s #1 media. We &#8220-google&#8221- anything, first thing in the morning. None of the BetFair prediction market webpages can be indexed by Google and the other Internet search engines. That means that BetFair is missing out, in my estimation, on hundreds of thousands of Google visitors each year. Those Google visitors will favor other prediction exchanges (e.g., HubDub) whose prediction market webpages are indexed naturally by the Internet search engines.

The British, who drive on the wrong side of the road, don&#8217-t have the 2 most important keys of the future.

Google Search thinks that Midas Oracle has more value than the New York Times and Freakonomics when the topic is Googles enterprise prediction markets. How do you like that, Bo? Its cool, no?

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Excellent article about enterprise prediction markets and Inkling Markets —with a good word for Robin Hanson, who invented MSR.
  • HubDub limitations
  • BetFair Developer Program use Joomla! as their blog software (and CMS).
  • Lawsuit aiming at compelling the office of the United States trade representative to produce a copy of its compensation settlement with the European Union over the United States’ withdrawal of gambling services from the General Agreement on Trade in Services.
  • Iraq War = “not necessary”, “a serious strategic blunder” — US News Media = “complicit enablers” in the manipulation of the public (“the propaganda campaign”) — George W. Bush turned away “from candor and honesty when those qualities were most needed.”
  • JASON RUSPINI’S CROCKERY: The Brain states forcefully that they are not “event futures”, but “binary options”. Still, as soon as he premieres prediction markets on tax rates at InTrade, he calls them “tax futures” —of course.
  • Tasmania’s Prime Minister who licenced BetFair Australia departs “abruptly”.