The definitive proof that its presently impossible to practice prediction market journalism with BetFair.

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Homer's brain

Unlike InTrade and NewsFutures, BetFair does not deliver any chart after that the prediction market has expired &#8212-leaving the blog post that linked to it totally blank (in a digital world where old content is King, and where Google sends traffic to old blog posts).

The BetFair marketing department is staffed by arrogant incompetents who are incapable of establishing a working relationship with prediction market bloggers like me.

There is nothing more important for our industry than the uprising of new blogs that would hot-link to the charts of prediction markets. The BetFair marketing team hasn&#8217-t computed that yet, in spite of all efforts made in their direction.

Of all the prediction market firms I talk with, BetFair is the most impermeable to the prediction market approach: their degree of arrogance is inversely proportional to their level of competency.

US Masters 2008 prediction markets

Midas Oracle is incontestably [*] the best vertical portal to prediction markets.

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This site has more than you need to know about futures markets and the subtle point that they don’t predict but rather capture what people think will happen. Clear?

My dual strategy is paying off.

  1. Presenting a prediction market chart associated with an explainer about prediction markets on the blog frontpage &#8212-on top of the daily posts, making the reading of this introductory material compulsory for our visitors.
  2. Publishing, again, the explainer on prediction markets on top of the page grouping the current prediction market charts. This &#8220-predictions&#8221- page has been the more popular material on Midas Oracle, these last 30 days.

[*] Overcoming Bias and Freakonomics are not prediction market blogs. And they didn&#8217-t take my challenge to comment on the BetFair Starting Prices.

Midas Oracle is the only popular, independent, exhaustive, multi-author, multi-exchange, Web-based resource on prediction markets.

Dear Midas Oracle readers,

I&#8217-m happy to report progress in building the architecture and content of our group blog, Midas Oracle. Let me introduce you to our 2 master pages: &#8220-PREDICTIONS&#8221- and &#8220-BEST&#8221-.





= our explainer on prediction markets + the best charts of prediction markets

Following the New Hampshire brouhaha, I believe that the way to go is to systematically associate (when time and space permit) a short probability explainer to any published chart of prediction market. You can see such an association at the top of our blog frontpage. I will do that in some blog posts, too, in the future.

Political charts from InTrade and NewsFutures are published there. Charts from more exchanges will be added there over the coming weeks, months, and years. Suggestions are welcomed.

Thanks to Michael Giberson and Emile Servan-Schreiber for some tiny input in establishing that brand-new page.



#2. BEST


= the best external weblinks on prediction markets + the best Midas Oracle posts on prediction markets

This file has been quite popular &#8212-see the web stats report, in the appendix. I will, of course, augment this file with many more pointers, in the coming weeks, months, and years. Suggestions are welcomed.





You can now search the archives of the Midas Oracle blog posts &#8212-by date, by category, by tag, by poster, etc. Bo Cowgill will now be able to dig the Midas Oracle archives to unearth all &#8220-the inaccuracies&#8221- that I have printed &#8220-over the years&#8221-. :-D Good luck for your quest, Bo.





More pageviews for the blog.

More coverage of the prediction markets (as opposed to coverage of the prediction market industry) &#8212-on the other two blogs (Midas Oracle .NET and Midas Oracle .COM).

More academic paper reviews.

A sense of what could be prediction market journalism (pioneered by Justin Wolfers in the Wall Street Journal).

A discussion on the usefulness of a prediction market plugin for WordPress.

And, maybe, the building of an advisory board for Midas Oracle &#8212-if that makes sense and serves a purpose.

Step one towards our ultimate goal: WORLD DOMINATION. :-D




Below are pageviews of the most popular Midas Oracle webpages, since September 2006. For the posts (as opposed to the pages), to get a more complete picture, you should add the number 1,050 (estimation) to the numbers below &#8212-to account for the feed subscribers (900) and the blog frontpage readers (150), who both also consumed the posts in question.

Please note that these stats are from Google Analytics. When assessing the popularity of Midas Oracle against other websites, do use the Google Analytics numbers, and not numbers from other web stats services. (I also have server stats, whose numbers are much more impressive, but they don&#8217-t count the same things.) Thanks.



Read the previous blog posts by Chris. F. Masse:

  • Our good doctor EJSS laughs at the “Web 2.0” concept on TechCrunch, but touts it as an essential part of the NewsFutures offerings on his website.
  • NewsFutures do *NOT* favor event derivative management by traders.
  • Who will win Super Bowl XLII? Patriots vs. Giants
  • NewsFutures presidential widget
  • Win Florida, win the nomination.
  • Barack Obama’s victory in South Carolina won’t stop the Clintons.
  • eTech 2008 — Google’s enterprise prediction markets



Author Profile&nbsp-Editor and Publisher of Midas Oracle .ORG .NET .COM &#8212- Chris Masse&#8217-s mugshot &#8212- Contact Chris Masse &#8212- Chris Masse&#8217-s LinkedIn profile &#8212- Chris Masse&#8217-s FaceBook profile &#8212- Chris Masse&#8217-s Google profile &#8212- Sophia-Antipolis, France, E.U. Read more from this author&#8230-

Read the previous blog posts by Chris. F. Masse:

  • Comments are now completely open on Midas Oracle.
  • Albert Einstein, Chairman of the Midas Oracle Advisory Board
  • Erratic –but not Stochastic– Charts
  • Barack Obama is the 44th US president.
  • We already have prediction markets in future tax rates. It’s called the municipal bond yield curve.
  • O’Reilly – Money-Tech Conference