Nate Silver explains how he builds his forecasting models. – [VIDEO]
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SXSW: Nate Silver explains how he approached political forecasting for the 2008 US presidential elections. – [VIDEO]
In part #2, he speaks about the books he is writing:
Oscars 2010 Post-Mortem – InTrade Prediction Markets
In France, prediction markets are hyped by 2 bozo economists -David Thesmar and Augustin Landier.
Emile Servan-Schreiber is doing a great job of putting prediction markets on the French media scene. (As I type this, he is on French TV.)
2 green-foot French economists (David Thesmar and Augustin Landier) are hyping the prediction markets in the French media, using a non-scientific language (“-predictive markets”-, “-stocks”- *) and few references to hard facts. Their background is not stellar. They penned an Op-Ed in July 2007, titled, “-The mega-crash won’-t happen”- [PDF file].
Of course, one year later, the developed world experienced (and is still experiencing) the worst financial crisis ever. What’-s funny is that, in 2007, our 2 economists-in-chief were hyping the non-regulated credit derivatives that sent us into the depression, and denying the possibility of systemic risk. What a bunch of incompetents.
Emile, please recruit more serious people.
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[*] The good vocabulary is “-prediction markets”-, and “-traded bets”- or “-event derivatives”-.
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Logica FutureScope
Predictalot = combinatorial prediction markets (a la Robin Hanson)
How does professor Lance Fortnow use Twitter?
Lance “-P NP”- Fortnow explains his usage of Twitter.
Jason Ruspini and David Pennock should listen.
Greece owns buildings, companies and uninhabited islands, which could all be used for debt redemption.
I love the idea, but would our good friend George Tziralis (Ask Markets &- Open Fund) agree?
- 2,000 islands–
- 227 of those islands are inhabited.
Sell them all.
Hyping enterprise prediction markets in Mashable
Business leaders rely on metrics and data to inform decisions around new products and opportunities, but traditional forecasting methods suffer from bias and lack of first-hand information. That’s why business forecasting is an ideal target for the application of crowd wisdom. While bets are made anonymously, some prediction market software applications have built-in reward systems for accurate forecasters. And the accuracy of prediction markets over traditional forecasting methods is proven again and again. […] Prediction markets will then aggregate this knowledge to produce actionable, people-powered forecasts. The result is an ultra-rich information source that will lay the foundation for smarter, better-informed company decisions. […]
PubSubHubbub + PuSHPress
I have just installed the PuSHPress plugin, and this post is a test to see whether it works. If yes, this post should be indexed quickly by Google Reader (and other feed readers).
Filed in “-Real-Time Web“-.
UPDATE: I am so impressed, I could lay an egg. A brand-new post appears in Google Reader within seconds. I can’-t believe it.
UPDATE 2: Any small editing is immediately fetched by Google Reader (provided it is done on the last 10 posts). Amazing.