Doing The Delegate/SuperDelegate Math.

No GravatarNew York Times – Talking Point Memo

Read the previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Never talk when you can nod, and never nod when you can wink, and never write an e-mail because it’s death. You’re giving prosecutors all the evidence we need.
  • Is Justin Wolfers a libertarian? Probably not.
  • The information technology that caught Eliot Spitzer
  • Eric Zitzewitz’s 10 minutes of fame
  • Fun with conditional probabilities
  • Wrongly Crafted Headlines Of The Day
  • an American, petite, very pretty brunette, 5 feet 5 inches, and 105 pounds

So no matter how you cut it, Obama will almost certainly end the primaries with a pledged-delegate lead, courtesy of all those landslides in February.

No GravatarJonathan Alter: &#8220-Hillary’s Math Problem – Forget tonight. She could win 16 straight and still lose.&#8221-

UPDATE

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Red Herring’s list of the top 100 North-American high-tech startups includes Inkling Markets —but not NewsFutures, Consensus Point, or Xpree.
  • Professor Koleman Strumpf explains the prediction markets to the countryland people.
  • Professor Koleman Strumpf tells CNN that a prediction market, by essence, can’t predict an upset.
  • Time magazine interview the 2 BetFair-Tradefair co-founders, and not a single time do they pronounce the magic words, “prediction markets”.
  • One Deep Throat told me that this VC firm might have been connected with the Irish prediction exchange, at inception.
  • BetFair Rapid = BetFair’s standalone, local, PC-based, order-entry software for prediction markets
  • Michael Moore tells the Democratic people to go Barack Obama in Pennsylvania (a two-tier state), but the polls and the prediction markets tell us that that won’t do the trick.

With 45,000 registered Irish customers, BetFair-TradeFair (not TradeSports-InTrade) is the dominant prediction exchange in Ireland.

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Link.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Prediction Markets
  • Meet professor Justin Wolfers.
  • Become “friend” with me on Google E-Mail so as to share feed items with me within Google Reader.
  • Nigel Eccles’ flawed “vision” about HubDub shows that he hasn’t any.
  • How does InTrade deal with insider trading?
  • Modern Life
  • “The Beacon” is an excellent blog published by The Independent Institute.

If Warren Buffett cant figure out derivatives, can anybody?

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The $300 Trillion Time Bomb

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • The FaceBook profiles of the 2 most important men of the field of prediction markets
  • THE HUMAN GADFLY WHOSE OBJECTIONS ROBIN HANSON IS DUCKING…???…
  • Google now considers Midas Oracle as a major blog.
  • Horizon 2015: A long-term strategic perspective for the real-money prediction markets
  • Join our group at LinkedIn to have your “Prediction Markets” badge on your profile. It’s ‘chic’. (“Groups” info should be set as “visible”, in your profile options.) We are 63 this early Saturday morning —keeps growing.
  • If you have been using PayPal to fund your InTrade, TradeSports or BetFair account, please, check that horror story.
  • 48 hours after the launch of the “Prediction Markets” group at LinkedIn, we have already 52 members —both prediction market luminaries and simple people (trading the event derivatives or collecting the market-generated probabilities).

Why Midas Oracle (and not TV news shows or print newspapers) will dominate the future.

No GravatarLizard

Henry Blodget:

We still occasionally encounter people who argue that physical newspapers and TV news shows have a vital roll to play in the dissemination of news. These folks usually work for physical newspapers and TV networks, of course. [&#8230-]

Ha! ha! ha! :-D

48% said their primary source of news is the Internet (up 20% from only a year ago).
86% of Americans regard web sites as an important source of news.
36% regard &#8220-blogs&#8221- as an important source of news.
87% of Americans think &#8220-professional journalism&#8221- will remain vitally important.
77% think &#8220-citizen journalism&#8221- will be important
59% think &#8220-blogs&#8221- will be important.

More at Zogby.

BetFair-TradeFair, Betdaq, TradeSports-InTrade, MatchBook, NewsFutures, HSX, et al., should begin to take prediction market blogs seriously.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Red Herring’s list of the top 100 North-American high-tech startups includes Inkling Markets —but not NewsFutures, Consensus Point, or Xpree.
  • Professor Koleman Strumpf explains the prediction markets to the countryland people.
  • Professor Koleman Strumpf tells CNN that a prediction market, by essence, can’t predict an upset.
  • Time magazine interview the 2 BetFair-Tradefair co-founders, and not a single time do they pronounce the magic words, “prediction markets”.
  • One Deep Throat told me that this VC firm might have been connected with the Irish prediction exchange, at inception.
  • BetFair Rapid = BetFair’s standalone, local, PC-based, order-entry software for prediction markets
  • Michael Moore tells the Democratic people to go Barack Obama in Pennsylvania (a two-tier state), but the polls and the prediction markets tell us that that won’t do the trick.

Alpha Thesis

No Gravatar&#8230- Is The Blog Of The Day.

Good prediction market journalism.

Best wishes for your blog, Ashish Singal.

Come visit us on Midas Oracle whenever you want.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Red Herring’s list of the top 100 North-American high-tech startups includes Inkling Markets —but not NewsFutures, Consensus Point, or Xpree.
  • Professor Koleman Strumpf explains the prediction markets to the countryland people.
  • Professor Koleman Strumpf tells CNN that a prediction market, by essence, can’t predict an upset.
  • Time magazine interview the 2 BetFair-Tradefair co-founders, and not a single time do they pronounce the magic words, “prediction markets”.
  • One Deep Throat told me that this VC firm might have been connected with the Irish prediction exchange, at inception.
  • BetFair Rapid = BetFair’s standalone, local, PC-based, order-entry software for prediction markets
  • Michael Moore tells the Democratic people to go Barack Obama in Pennsylvania (a two-tier state), but the polls and the prediction markets tell us that that won’t do the trick.

Meet Michael Arrington of TechCrunch.

No GravatarMichael Arrington

Lloyd Grove: I ran into Nick Denton [the owner of Gawker Media, parent company of the Silicon Valley blog ValleyWag.com] last night. What do you think of him?

Michael Arrington: I think he&#8217-s a total dick.

Lloyd Grove: Would you care to elaborate?

Michael Arrington: I think he&#8217-s amoral. I don&#8217-t think he has any sense of right and wrong, and he&#8217-ll do anything he can to make money and have a successful blog. So I just don&#8217-t associate with him.

Lloyd Grove: I have to say, when he invited me to be his friend on Facebook, I had to think about it a long time. Because here in New York, when I had a gossip column at the New York Daily News, Gawker particularly attempted to make my life less pleasant than it ought to have been.

Michael Arrington: Yeah, I know what that&#8217-s all about. By the way, Valleywag competes with TechCrunch on some stories, and it doesn&#8217-t matter. If they get a tip or think something&#8217-s funny, they&#8217-ll write it about me. And it&#8217-s not just me, they do it to everyone. But I just try to ignore it.

Lloyd Grove: Uh huh. Tell me, obviously the big challenge for traditional print journalism organizations like the Washington Post or Time magazine or New York magazine, and even Conde Nast Portfolio, is to figure out how to monetize the internet and make their businesses viable on the internet. Do people in those businesses ever consult you since you seem to have a very successful journalistic operation?

Michael Arrington: Not so much. I mean, we&#8217-re able to monetize because we have a very high-end audience and it&#8217-s very niche and very specific. We&#8217-re lucky, but it&#8217-s not magic. If you can get an audience like ours, it&#8217-s pretty easy to generate revenue.

Lloyd Grove: How do you describe your audience to advertisers?

Michael Arrington: You know, they&#8217-re early adopters. They&#8217-re people that want to try new products. A significant portion of my audience, for instance, would&#8217-ve bought the Kindle when Amazon released it last year, immediately. And they&#8217-re a lot of entrepreneurs, so a lot of them need service providers, they need designers, they need accountants, and then they need to buy software. So Microsoft, Adobe, and others are always advertising on the site as well. So that&#8217-s it, and sometimes, you have other things as well, but it&#8217-s a high-end high-income sort of audience. We did a survey a while back, and the average was like $100,000 a year.

Lloyd Grove: You&#8217-re only two years old, right?

Michael Arrington: This is going to be our third year.

TechCrunch

CrunchNotes

More Info

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Red Herring’s list of the top 100 North-American high-tech startups includes Inkling Markets —but not NewsFutures, Consensus Point, or Xpree.
  • Professor Koleman Strumpf explains the prediction markets to the countryland people.
  • Professor Koleman Strumpf tells CNN that a prediction market, by essence, can’t predict an upset.
  • Time magazine interview the 2 BetFair-Tradefair co-founders, and not a single time do they pronounce the magic words, “prediction markets”.
  • One Deep Throat told me that this VC firm might have been connected with the Irish prediction exchange, at inception.
  • BetFair Rapid = BetFair’s standalone, local, PC-based, order-entry software for prediction markets
  • Michael Moore tells the Democratic people to go Barack Obama in Pennsylvania (a two-tier state), but the polls and the prediction markets tell us that that won’t do the trick.

Changes to Midas Oracle

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  1. Anyone can comment &#8212-no need to be a registered member. It has been working fine. Spammers have been kept at bay by the math test. (They can&#8217-t count, apparently. :-D )
  2. Anyone can register himself/herself to become a member. A math test will deter spammers.
  3. The last part of some of my posts will be seen only by registered members &#8212-at times. You&#8217-ll be told to login or register to see the full post.
  4. I will send out an e-mail newsletter to the registered members &#8212-at times. This will be performed directly from the Midas Oracle system. Your e-mail addresses won&#8217-t be shared with an external service.

Meta Links:

  • How To Join-
  • Login-
  • Lost Password?-
  • Site Administration-
  • Register-
  • Logout-
  • How To Get Removed.

That&#8217-s what you&#8217-ll see at the top of the sidebar:

NRM

Once logged in, here&#8217-s what you&#8217-ll see:

RM

Read the previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • TechCrunch is 221 times bigger than Midas Oracle.
  • Earthquake measuring 9.0 or more on Richter scale to occur anywhere on or before December 31, 2008
  • Why Midas Oracle (and not TV news shows or print newspapers) will dominate the future.
  • The Six Degrees Of Separation
  • Alpha Thesis
  • Meet Michael Arrington of TechCrunch.
  • Hedge your taxes –and forecast them too.