Enterprise Prediction Markets: Co-Creating An Organizations Future

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Prediction Markets: Co-Creating An Organization&#8217-s Future – (PDF file) – by Inside Knowledge Magazine&#8217-s Victoria Axelrod and Jenny Ambrozek – 2008-05-10

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David Perry of Consensus Point:

Yes, markets are early warning systems for many things, they give you a sense of what your people know and do not know.

Prediction markets are not necessary if everyone has perfect knowledge- markets are designed to tell people what they do know, to be quiet when they do not
know and are designed to get around take place over time, allowing for prices to fluctuate depending on traders’ confidence.

The longer the markets run, the more informed. They are like wine, they get better with time.

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Emile Servan-Schreiber of NewsFutures is cited too.

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La Sagesse Des Foules

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Good news this week for French-speaking Midas Oracle readers: The French version of Surowiecki&#8217-s book has at last been released. Here&#8217-s wishing it the success it deserves! Early reviews are very positive: One reviewer writes poetically about &#8220-crowds so wise that they become revolutionary.&#8221- Cute, and telling: As the country celebrates the student uprisings of April-May 1968, when Mao&#8217-s little red book was a must read, Surowiecki&#8217-s manifesto is indeed perfectly timed to launch a new cultural revolution.

La Sagesse des Foules

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Spot the red line. I like the idea of this comparison.

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • If Midas Oracle were to meet, would we use Huddle, and why?
  • WORLD’S SUCH A SMALL PLACE: Smarkets meet HubDub.
  • 50% of our prediction market luminaries have a MacBook.
  • STRAIGHT FROM OUR TRUISM DEPARTMENT: Money buys happiness.
  • Ron Paul (R) and Barney Frank (D) ally together to attack “the practical hurdles of the federal law, known as the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act, rather than its legitimacy”.
  • Clicking on the “SPHERE: RELATED CONTENT” button, at the bottom of each Midas Oracle post, will bring you a list of external webspots.
  • FRIGHTENING: Jed Christiansen’s prediction market blog was briefly overtaken by web spammers, who inserted invisible links to their commercial sites so as to game the Google PageRank system.

The First One, The Free One, and The Good One.

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No GravatarSteven Frank:

My current hypothesis is that there are at least three positions of prominence in each segment &#8212- three ways to be number one, if you will: The First One, The Free One, and The Good One.

I like his short essay.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • 50% of our prediction market luminaries have a MacBook.
  • STRAIGHT FROM OUR TRUISM DEPARTMENT: Money buys happiness.
  • Ron Paul (R) and Barney Frank (D) ally together to attack “the practical hurdles of the federal law, known as the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act, rather than its legitimacy”.
  • Clicking on the “SPHERE: RELATED CONTENT” button, at the bottom of each Midas Oracle post, will bring you a list of external webspots.
  • FRIGHTENING: Jed Christiansen’s prediction market blog was briefly overtaken by web spammers, who inserted invisible links to their commercial sites so as to game the Google PageRank system.
  • InTrade ditch market-leader Bloomberg for low-cost, second-tier data provider eSignal.
  • Drawing a parallel between our reluctance to seek advice and the experts’ reluctance to take the market-generated probabilistic predictions in an un-discriminating, un-critical fashion

Katie Couric prediction markets are urgently needed, mister InTrade.

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No Gravatar–

Matt Drudge&#8217-s headline:

NYT: COURIC PALS SAY ANCHOR EXIT POSSIBLE IN FEW WEEKS&#8230-

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • If Midas Oracle were to meet, would we use Huddle, and why?
  • WORLD’S SUCH A SMALL PLACE: Smarkets meet HubDub.
  • 50% of our prediction market luminaries have a MacBook.
  • STRAIGHT FROM OUR TRUISM DEPARTMENT: Money buys happiness.
  • Ron Paul (R) and Barney Frank (D) ally together to attack “the practical hurdles of the federal law, known as the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act, rather than its legitimacy”.
  • Clicking on the “SPHERE: RELATED CONTENT” button, at the bottom of each Midas Oracle post, will bring you a list of external webspots.
  • FRIGHTENING: Jed Christiansen’s prediction market blog was briefly overtaken by web spammers, who inserted invisible links to their commercial sites so as to game the Google PageRank system.

How to read the Wall Street Journal stories on prediction markets… FOR FREE

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Very simple. The WSJ is free if you come from big news content aggregators (like Digg or Google News). If you can manage to have your browser produce artificially a Digg or Google News referral, then you&#8217-re permitted to enter the WSJ paid content for free.

  1. Download RefSpoof, which is an add-on for Mozilla FireFox-
  2. Type &#8220-digg.com&#8221- in the RefSpoof entry box-
  3. In the &#8220-R&#8221- drop menu, on the right, check &#8220-static&#8221-.
  4. Go to the Wall Street Journal, and click on a story. (You&#8217-ll hit the pay wall.)
  5. Click on &#8220-spoof&#8221-, which is located at the left of the RefSpoon entry box. (That will create the false referral.)
  6. You&#8217-ll see that the Wall Street Journal story reloads and that the pay wall has disappeared, freeing the content.

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The guy who published that trick says it&#8217-s all ethical to him. (Hummm&#8230-)

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NEXT WEEK, we&#8217-ll show you how to speculate on BetFair-TradeFair and InTrade-TradeSports event derivative markets&#8230- FOR FREE. :-D Just kidding. :-D

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Speculating on event derivative markets is not investing.

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No GravatarUltra pertinent remark from the Club For Growth blogger:

[The New York Post video] is an informative video, but I want to quibble about two things. I view the term &#8220-investing&#8221- as the act of buying an asset with the hopes of it appreciating in value sometime in the future. Used correctly, you &#8220-invest&#8221- in a new home, a company on the stock exchange, or a baseball card collection.

However, you can&#8217-t &#8220-invest&#8221- in politics as the New York Post reporter said you could. The reason why you can&#8217-t is because contracts sold on prediction markets like InTrade.com are not assets– they are derivatives. Their value is based on the outcome of some event. Like futures contracts for frozen concentrated orange juice. [&#8230-]

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I have been blogging about that for years, here, on Midas Oracle.

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • If Midas Oracle were to meet, would we use Huddle, and why?
  • WORLD’S SUCH A SMALL PLACE: Smarkets meet HubDub.
  • 50% of our prediction market luminaries have a MacBook.
  • STRAIGHT FROM OUR TRUISM DEPARTMENT: Money buys happiness.
  • Ron Paul (R) and Barney Frank (D) ally together to attack “the practical hurdles of the federal law, known as the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act, rather than its legitimacy”.
  • Clicking on the “SPHERE: RELATED CONTENT” button, at the bottom of each Midas Oracle post, will bring you a list of external webspots.
  • FRIGHTENING: Jed Christiansen’s prediction market blog was briefly overtaken by web spammers, who inserted invisible links to their commercial sites so as to game the Google PageRank system.

The New York Times article doesnt mention Googles enterprise prediction markets, alas. – Bo Cowgill says that the illustration published in the sidebar defines exclusively what is done at Google.

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Right-click on the New York Times graphic below, open Bo Cowgill&#8217-s post in another browser tab, and read his arguments.

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NYT PMs

Image Credit: Chris Gash for the New York Times

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Adam Siegel of Inkling Markets is also out with a post on that NYT article, but it is of no intellectual interest. Maybe Adam should blog less quickly and eat more fish.

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I forgot to tell you, the other day, that Best Buy is a Consensus Point client, but you knew that already.

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Previously: The New York Times is telling the business world that enterprise prediction markets are an essential management tool.

[Via Xpree]

Previously: Do Google’s enterprise prediction markets work?

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • The Terror Finance Blog
  • Playing fantasy sports is not gambling. The Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act includes a specific exemption for fantasy sports, provided the prizes are determined in advance and the imaginary teams don’t correspond to any real teams.
  • Inkling Markets’ Advisory Board… which does not want to tell its name
  • BetFair created the world’s largest ad banner —as certified by the Guinness Book of World Records.
  • Why Emile Servan-Schreiber is on to something with Bet 2 Give —and why InTrade, TradeSports and BetFair should each have a philanthropy wallet.
  • The CFTC is going to close the comments in 14 days. We have 14 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges, and counter the evil petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).
  • The purpose of X2 is to identify future disruptions, opportunities, and competitive landscapes related to the content and dynamics of global science and technology innovation- to develop a new platform for understanding global innovation trends- and to present this information to policy- and decision-makers, as well as the general public, in a useful form.