Is Big Brother being fixed in Great Britain? And are the alleged fixers using BetFair to make a fast buck (or quid, as they say in the U.K.)?

Posted on May 31, 2008 by admin

Via Ed, The Daily Mail:

The Daily Star reveals that some punters are set to earn more than half a million pounds after a total bet of ?971 was staked via BetFair on Nikki to win at 1000-1 shortly after she was voted out of the house. […]

Rumours of &#8216-insider dealing&#8217- on BetFair chat forums continue to surround the clued up gamblers who stand to win ?582,250. […]

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That &#8220-Nikki&#8221- was evicted, an later on re-instated in the game.

Hence, the questions about the traders who did bet on her, after her eviction. Did they &#8220-know&#8221- something that the other traders didn&#8217-t?

On the other hand, it&#8217-s a constitutional right for Joe A. Doe to bet ?971 on a loser. Many do that every day at the horse race track. We should not accuse people of insider trading (or corruption) without any evidence.

BetFair employs many specialists in their &#8220-integrity team&#8221- to deal with such occurrences.

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VIDEO – Robotic Mule

Posted on May 31, 2008 by admin

Nigel, you should set up some kind of prediction market about that at HubDub.

Amazing.

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Via the ultra-interesting Robin Hanson &#8212-who, for once, does not write a soporific post.

Un-Important Technical Note: The video above is dated 2008, while Robin Hanson links to a 2006 video, in his post.

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

This is why I said that those who believe that Hillary Clinton has a chance to be on the Democratic ticket are “clueless”.
WEB EXCLUSIVE: — The annoted, historical, compound chart that those triple morons at the BetFair blog are hiding from their readers’ view. — It is located in a secret cache, linked to behind a picture of Hillary Clinton. — Curious place to locate a prediction market chart. — I bet nobody downloaded that chart. —
Knows the similarity between Google, Craig’s List, and the Drudge Report?
“Listening to each other is core to our culture, and we don’t listen to each other just because we’re all so smart. We listen because everyone has good ideas, and because it’s a great way to show respect. And any company, at any point in its history, can start listening more.”
2 days after my ringing the alarm bell… THE FREE FALL
Tech News Of The Day — Friday Morning Edition
VIDEO: Why Hillary Clinton will never be the Vice President of the United States of America.

PREDICTION MARKET TECHNOLOGY NOT IN GARTNERS TOP 10 TECHNOLOGIES LIST

Posted on May 31, 2008 by admin

Via Jim Anderson

Gartner:

1. Multicore and hybrid processors
2. Virtualization and fabric computing
3. Social networks and social software
4. Cloud computing and cloud/Web platforms
5. Web mashups
6. User Interface
7. Ubiquitous computing
8. Contextual computing
9. Augmented reality
10. Semantics

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

WEB EXCLUSIVE: — The annoted, historical, compound chart that those triple morons at the BetFair blog are hiding from their readers’ view. — It is located in a secret cache, linked to behind a picture of Hillary Clinton. — Curious place to locate a prediction market chart. — I bet nobody downloaded that chart. —
Knows the similarity between Google, Craig’s List, and the Drudge Report?
“Listening to each other is core to our culture, and we don’t listen to each other just because we’re all so smart. We listen because everyone has good ideas, and because it’s a great way to show respect. And any company, at any point in its history, can start listening more.”
2 days after my ringing the alarm bell… THE FREE FALL
Tech News Of The Day — Friday Morning Edition
VIDEO: Why Hillary Clinton will never be the Vice President of the United States of America.
Any idea what Brad Stewart means with that logo that features a south-to-north rotation? — Does he want to put our Planet Earth upside down? — The real rotation occurs around an axis that connects the north and the south poles.

Extreme Prediction Markets & Ethics

Posted on May 30, 2008 by admin

While Robin Hanson was busy signing Bob&#8217-s petitions and blablabling on philosophy, Jason Ruspini answered the questions.

Jason Ruspini (&#8221-The Brain&#8221-) has established himself as one of the experts in the field of prediction markets. Listen up.

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1-2) These markets could have insider trading restrictions and forced settlement w/ new contract set.
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3-4) The CFTC/NFA could monitor a “large trader” list and have special reporting requirements for them. If trading seemed unreasonable given the objective outlook for a candidate, they could begin an investigation.
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5) Don’t void or unwind the market, just settle the contracts at the price immediately before the event and then start a new set of contracts as soon as possible.
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The only problem there is what happens when a price manipulation precedes an event such that the manipulated outcome locks-in the “manipulated” prices. The arrangements in 3-4) would go a long way towards addressing that scenario. Failing that, contracts could be worded in such a way to allow for freezing funds and unwinding trades in that sort of situation. Also, it would be difficult for a trader to set-off a feedback loop in a liquid binary market even if they were very large.

Justin Wolfers should have his own Wikipedia entry.

Posted on May 29, 2008 by admin

Any Wikipedian out there willing to start off his page?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Justin_Wolfers

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Robin Hanson, Tyler Cowen, Steve Levitt, and even Don Luskin and Robert Scoble, have their own Wikipedia entry. Why not Wolfers???&#8230- I realized that when I updated my &#8220-acknowledgments&#8221- page:

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Acknowledgments

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– Friedrich August Von Hayek (an economist who introduced, among other things, the concept of the market as an information aggregation tool in The Use of Knowledge in Society, and the 1974 co-winner of the Nobel Prize in economics)-

– Professor Vernon Smith (an experimental economics pioneer, and, as such, the 2002 co-winner of the Nobel Prize in economics)-

– Professor Robin Hanson (one of the contemporary co-inventors of the prediction markets)-

– Doctor James Surowiecki (author of The Wisdom Of Crowds)-

– Professors Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz (meta analysts of the prediction markets)-

– Professor Steve Levitt (co-author of Freakonomics)-

– Professor Tyler Cowen (co-author of Marginal Revolution and author of Discover Your Inner Economist)-

– Donald Luskin (author of The Conspiracy To Keep You Poor And Stupid)-

– The GNU, Linux, WordPress, World Wide Web Consortium, Mozilla, Opera, Yahoo!, Google, Wikipedia, Creative Commons and Free Software Foundation people (among others) for freeing our information-based society.

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More Thanks

The Midas Oracle Blog Authors
Credits

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The simplicity and social utility of the gravatars explained to Tom W. Bell by blog guru Chris Pirillo.

Posted on May 29, 2008 by admin

Tom W. Bell,

Please, watch this short video, and get yourself a gravatar. It&#8217-s easy and fun.

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The little difference between Midas Oracle and Chris Pirillo&#8217-s blog is that he set up things so that when somebody does not have a gravatar, a randomly-pixelized image appears, while on Midas Oracle, there&#8217-s a face pic of an anonymous person that appears.

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

How you should read Midas Oracle
The best prediction exchanges
“There will be no media consumption left in ten years that is not delivered over an IP network. There will be no newspapers, no magazines that are delivered in paper form. Everything gets delivered in an electronic form.”
Hillary Clinton won’t be on the Democratic ticket. — It’s not going to happen. — N-E-V-E-R. — Not a chance. — Period.
Suggestion for WordPress — Subscribers’ Capabilities
This is why I said that those who believe that Hillary Clinton has a chance to be on the Democratic ticket are “clueless”.
WEB EXCLUSIVE: — The annoted, historical, compound chart that those triple morons at the BetFair blog are hiding from their readers’ view. — It is located in a secret cache, linked to behind a picture of Hillary Clinton. — Curious place to locate a prediction market chart. — I bet nobody downloaded that chart. —

Where to find advice on how to set up your enterprise prediction markets

Posted on May 29, 2008 by admin

Consultants

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Inkling – URL: Inkling Markets – (Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A.)

Adam Siegel — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
Nathan Kontny

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Consensus Point – (Nashville, Tennessee, U.S.A. &amp- Calgary, Alberta, Canada)

David Perry — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
Ken Kittlitz, who co-founded the Foresight Exchange in 1994. — Post Archives at Midas Oracle

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NewsFutures – (Maryland, U.S.A. &amp- Paris, France, E.U.)

Emile Servan-Schreiber — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
Maurice Balick

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Xpree – (U.S.A.)

Mat Fogarty — Post Archives at Midas Oracle

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HP Services – HP Labs – (U.S.A.)

Predicting the future &#8211-with games — Introductory article
Information Dynamics Lab — Internal prediction markets
BRAIN – (Behaviorallly Robust Aggregation of Information in Networks) — Scoring Rules (i.e., non-trading technique)
Bernardo A. Huberman – Bernardo Huberman – Senior Fellow &amp- Director
Kay-Yut Chen –
Google Search for &#8220-prediction markets&#8221-

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Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX) &amp- HSX Research – (L.A., California, U.S.A.)

Prediction market consultancy firm
Movie business

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Chris Hibbert – (California, U.S.A.)

Chris Hibbert (Software architect / Zocalo project manager) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
Chris Hibbert&#8217-s personal website — Chris Hibbert&#8217-s personal blog —
Chris Hibbert&#8217-s CommerceNet profile — (His stint there ended in mid-2006.)

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Robin Hanson – (George Mason U., Virginia, U.S.A.)

Robin Hanson — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
Robin Hanson does prediction market consulting work, and have no exclusive arrangements.
&#8220-I&#8217-m more interested in helping groups that want to add lots of value to big decisions, versus groups that just want to dabble in a new fad.&#8221-

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Justin Wolfers – (U. of Pennsylvania&#8217-s Wharton business school, Pennsylvania, U.S.A.)

Justin Wolfers — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
Justin Wolfers takes on prediction market consulting work.
The prediction market industry is &#8220-a case where the interaction between firm practice and academic research are reasonably close.&#8221-

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Koleman Strumpf – (U. of Kansas, Kansas, U.S.A.)

Koleman Strumpf — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
Koleman Strumpf can be approached to consult on prediction market projects.
&#8220-Prediction markets help harness the knowledge of diverse groups. They have great potential as a tool for industry.&#8221-

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Michael Giberson – (Virginia, U.S.A.)

Michael Giberson (energy economist, who is also an expert in prediction markets) — Post archives at Midas Oracle
Knowledge Problem – Blog on economics, energy policy, more.

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Robert Hahn – (American Enterprise Institute, Washington, D.C., U.S.A.)

Robert Hahn — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
Robert Hahn does consulting focused on improving decision making in the private and public sector. &#8220-This work builds on our evolving understanding of prediction markets and other economic tools.&#8221-

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IntelliMarket Systems – (L.A., California, U.S.A.)

Charles R. Plott – Charles Plott – (CalTech Inst., California, U.S.A.)

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Mercury Research and Consulting – (United Kingdom, E.U.)

Jed Christiansen — Post Archives at Midas Oracle

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Ask Markets – (Greece, E.U.)

George Tziralis — Post Archives at Midas Oracle

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Gexid – Global Exchange for Information Derivatives – (Germany, E.U.)

Bernd Ankenbrand — Post Archives at Midas Oracle

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Nosco – (Danemark, E.U.)

Jesper Krogstrup — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
Oliver Bernhard Pedersen

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Qmarkets – (Israel)

Noam Danon — Post Archives at Midas Oracle

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ProKons – (Germany)

Peter Gollowitsch

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Hive Insight – (Raleigh-Durham, North Carolina, U.S.A. &amp- London, U.K., E.U.)

Robert Wilburn (ex-NewsFutures)

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Foresight Markets – (??)

BPH Technologies

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NimaniX – (Israel)

Elad Amir (CEO), Littal Shemer Haim (VP Business development), David Shahar (VP R&amp-D)

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PrediCom – (London, United Kingdom, E.U.)

Mikael Edholm

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

This is why I said that those who believe that Hillary Clinton has a chance to be on the Democratic ticket are “clueless”.
WEB EXCLUSIVE: — The annoted, historical, compound chart that those triple morons at the BetFair blog are hiding from their readers’ view. — It is located in a secret cache, linked to behind a picture of Hillary Clinton. — Curious place to locate a prediction market chart. — I bet nobody downloaded that chart. —
Knows the similarity between Google, Craig’s List, and the Drudge Report?
“Listening to each other is core to our culture, and we don’t listen to each other just because we’re all so smart. We listen because everyone has good ideas, and because it’s a great way to show respect. And any company, at any point in its history, can start listening more.”
2 days after my ringing the alarm bell… THE FREE FALL
Tech News Of The Day — Friday Morning Edition
VIDEO: Why Hillary Clinton will never be the Vice President of the United States of America.

He asks questions; youll provide answers.

Posted on May 29, 2008 by admin

I would like to ask the U.S. contributors to Midas Oracle what they would make of a prediction market for the 2012 Democratic nomination where one contender was backed heavily, at any price, despite losing every single primary heavily for months.
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The Democratic nomination is only a once every four years event, but similar things to this happen regularly on tennis markets in the last 12 months.
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The questions are
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(1) What if Hillary Clinton herself wagered millions of dollars that she would not be the next Democratic candidate?
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(2) What if someone had the power to knock Hillary Clinton out of the race somehow had wagered millions on her not being the 2012 candidate? An example where this could happen would be the tournament where a spectator knifed Monica Seles during that tennis match in the early 90s. She would then not be able to win that tournament, but what if there is a financial incentive for people to injure participants, like with Seles? Or if someone assassinated Clinton? Should that market be paid out?
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(3) Should people be able to bet in near unlimited size on prediction markets, who weren’t regular bettors/traders? If it is a brand new account waging a quarter of a million dollars on a tennis player to lose, should that account have been restricted before placing that bet?
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(4) Should there be circumstances where a multi-million pound gamble is paid out on Obama 2012, if over a period of a number of months, someone had backed him heavily to win the nomination, even though he was losing every single primary?
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(5) If someone knifed Maria Sharapova, as happened with Monica Seles, you could make the argument that bets on that tournament should be void, if the knifeman has bet heavily on Sharapova not to win it, and because of her being knifed, she then doesn’t make the final and win. However, you could then reach a situation where someone injures a player deliberately, expecting that a prediction market would be voided, which they could also benefit from financially. A situation like this occurred in England in the seasons 1995/1996 and 1996/1997, where floodlights at soccer games were deliberately sabotaged, forcing abandonment of the matches concerned, as a result of the saboteurs not liking the half time scoreline. There is an incentive for someone to bet heavily against a Seles or a Sharapova, and then seriously wound or assault them to alter the outcome of a sports prediction market, but there is also an incentive to try to get a prediction market voided. The knifeman benefits from ensuring that Sharapova or Seles cannot win the tournament, but the saboteur benefits from the market being voided. The answer to the first one is probably to void the market due to foul play, removing the financial incentive to knife a female tennis player, but the chance to get a void market will provide a financial incentive to try to get the event abandoned,………. how should the arbiters of a prediction market put the right safeguards in place to remove financial moral hazard from the market?

Answer these questions below this present post or here.

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Lawsuit aiming at compelling the office of the United States trade representative to produce a copy of its compensation settlement with the European Union over the United States withdrawal of gambling services from the General Agreement on Trade in Services.

Posted on May 28, 2008 by admin

&#8220-National Security&#8221- is the reason given for the cover up.

The Center for Independent Media and Public Citizen are suing their pants off.

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Iraq War = not necessary, a serious strategic blunder – US News Media = complicit enablers in the manipulation of the public (the propaganda campaign) – George W. Bush turned away from candor and honesty when those qualities were most needed.

Posted on May 28, 2008 by admin

Scott McClellan

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Check what he wrote on Katrina and on Condoleeza Rice.

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And, now, the clincher:

[Scott McClellan] does not exempt himself from failings — “I fell far short of living up to the kind of public servant I wanted to be” — and calls the news media “complicit enablers” in the White House’s “carefully orchestrated campaign to shape and manipulate sources of public approval” in the march to the Iraq war in 2002 and 2003.

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Midas Oracle.ORG – Predictions & Innovation

Prediction Markets, Collective Intelligence, Innovation and Growth

Is Big Brother being fixed in Great Britain? And are the alleged fixers using BetFair to make a fast buck (or quid, as they say in the U.K.)?

VIDEO – Robotic Mule

PREDICTION MARKET TECHNOLOGY NOT IN GARTNERS TOP 10 TECHNOLOGIES LIST

Extreme Prediction Markets & Ethics

Justin Wolfers should have his own Wikipedia entry.

The simplicity and social utility of the gravatars explained to Tom W. Bell by blog guru Chris Pirillo.

Where to find advice on how to set up your enterprise prediction markets

He asks questions; youll provide answers.

Lawsuit aiming at compelling the office of the United States trade representative to produce a copy of its compensation settlement with the European Union over the United States withdrawal of gambling services from the General Agreement on Trade in Services.

Iraq War = not necessary, a serious strategic blunder – US News Media = complicit enablers in the manipulation of the public (the propaganda campaign) – George W. Bush turned away from candor and honesty when those qualities were most needed.