I’-ll keep an eye on that thread.
Thanks to Deep Throat for the link.
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BetFair Casino offers a registration bonus… but reserves the right to take it back later.
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EXPIRATIONS: Puerto Rico, South Dakota, and Montana
Expired prediction markets
InTrade
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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:
- IIF’s SIG on Prediction Markets
- Science
- Why did prediction markets do well in the pre-polling era, professor Strumpf?
- Mozilla FireFox users, do you have trouble downloading academic papers (as PDF files) from SSRN?
- “Impact Matrix. Used to collect and gauge the likelihood and business impact of various events in the very long term.”
- Ends and Means of Prediction Markets — Tom W. Bell Edition
- How to run enterprise prediction markets… legally
Barack Obama is the presumptive nominee of the Democratic party.
Cocky HubDub has just expired the contract. InTrade and BetFair did not. InTrade will expire the Democratic candidate contract when the Democratic party declares their nominee at their convention. BetFair does not state anything. Maybe they’-re too shy to tell. 
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UPDATE: Read Andrew Sulivan’-s analysis of Hillary Clinton’-s speech.
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UPDATE: NewsFutures did not expired its Democratic candidate contract either.
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UPDATE: Brad Stewart tells us in a comment that Reality Markets did not expire its contract, too.
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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:
- No Trades (other than at the start) —-> Not a reliable predictor, as of today
- How you should read Midas Oracle
- The best prediction exchanges
- “There will be no media consumption left in ten years that is not delivered over an IP network. There will be no newspapers, no magazines that are delivered in paper form. Everything gets delivered in an electronic form.”
- Hillary Clinton won’t be on the Democratic ticket. — It’s not going to happen. — N-E-V-E-R. — Not a chance. — Period.
- Suggestion for WordPress — Subscribers’ Capabilities
- This is why I said that those who believe that Hillary Clinton has a chance to be on the Democratic ticket are “clueless”.
Question to Caveat Bettor
Cav,
In light of Robin Hanson’-s latest blah blah blah…-
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Do you really think that a prediction market journalist (or blogger) should disclose his/her event derivative holdings (as you do systematically)?…-
Just a question that crossed my mind.
I was in favor of it before I read Hanson. Now, I have doubts…- (Hanson, be damned. )
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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:
- POLLS VERSUS PREDICTION MARKETS: Justin Wolfers retorts to Bob Erikson.
- Based on market data from a tiny prediction exchange (IEM, which is much smaller than InTrade-TradeSports or BetFair), a couple of researchers claim that prediction markets do not have superior predictive power. — And, adding salt to injury, they call our prediction market luminaries (Robin Hanson, Justin Wolfers, etc.)… “naive”.
- Do the media avoid reporting the bad omens that is sometimes reflected in the prediction markets?
- BetFair’s brand-new bet matching logic
- Quizz Of The Day — Monday Morning Edition
- BEWARE THE BLOGGING ACADEMICS: They are not blogging to inform us —they are blogging to promote themselves.
- Did Jason Ruspini and friends cash in on huge moves in prices of oil, natural gas, coal and other parts of the energy patch, this semester?
Clueless Mike Smithson is betting that Barack Obama will take Hillary Clinton on the Democratic ticket.
Wouarf.
He will lose his bet.
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TV News Shows = Entertainment
The awful French TV program on sports betting (where BetFair’-s Mark Davies croaked in French) reminded me of what Robert Scoble said about TV news shows.
They do not intend to educate you..
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Robert Scoble:
Last week I was on CNBC twice. Once on “Fast Money” and once on Donny Deutsch’s “The Big Idea.”
The Fast Money segment has been torn apart on the Internet but Roger Ehrenberg of the Information Arbitrage blog had the most intelligent analysis of it.
Here’s the key piece of the Donny Deutsch show, where we had a bunch of bloggers on the Microsoft Blogger Bus asking questions of Bug Labs’ CEO Peter Semmelhack. Bug Labs went onto win CNET’s “Best of CES” award for the emerging tech category.
Some things that are worth underlying about the difference between my video show and CNBC.
1. Expense. CNBC had dozens of people involved in the show, a huge booth, really expensive cameras, satellite time, etc. My show? Get a Nokia phone and go for it.
2. Makeup. Yeah, I wore it. There’s a video out there on the Internet somewhere. I’m not sure why Valleywag hasn’t found it yet.
3. You don’t get to say whatever you want. Donny’s show was tape delayed. If you try doing something wacky, they’ll just cut you out. But even if they keep you on, they have a director who is telling you what they want. She preps you for each segment, giving you “talking points.” If you don’t agree with those talking points you have to negotiate to have them changed. But if they don’t like your talking points they just won’t go with you. Second, she has a big sign and if she thinks you should make a point she makes it clear.
4. These shows are NOT about getting deep, or really getting a good understanding of CES. They were ALL about being entertaining! Hey, who knew? (I tried to pull a bunch of gadgets out and they said “we don’t care about the gadgets.”)
5. They filmed Bug Labs’ CEO for 10 hours for a two-minute segment. Now do you understand why so many CEOs let me come over and film them? I never take more than an hour with an executive, so it’s always easy to get onto someone’s schedule.
6. My show has very little editing, so it’s pretty rare that the context gets lost on an answer. On TV, though, things get cut up, sliced and diced, all for entertainment effect, not necessarily to tell the best story.
VIDEO – BetFairs Mark Davies croaks like a frog.
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To watch Mark Davies speaking French:
- Internet Explorer —-no FireFox.
- Latest Flash.
- Go to M6 Replay.
- Select “-magazines”-.
- Scroll on the right to go to “-Enquete Exclusive”-.
- Select Sunday, May 1, 2008 —- Paris sportifs: Quand la Mafia s’-en mele…-
- Windows Media.
- 9:00 into, they talk about Davydenko.
- 11:00 into, they show the BetFair HQ.
- Mark Davies is introduced as “-the #2″-. And, later on, they mis-translate “-Managing Director”- into “-Directeur General”-, which means “-CEO”- in French. Let’-s hope David Yu won’-t watch that tape.
- His French is not superb…- but quite close to.
- Explains that, in the Davydenko match, it was the bets that lead the game —-not the other way around. So, BetFair voided all bets.
- I am realizing that the phrase “-the prices of the bets”- (”-les prix des paris“-) is not usable. Better to talk about probabilities to the public.
- The rest of that news report is devoted to demonstrating, thru innuendos, rumors, unfounded pseudo facts, and mis-reported true facts, that the Mafia is in control of all world sports —-thru world-wide betting.
- At the very end, though, one official (from the tennis federation, the ATP, if my memory is correct) says that they cooperate with some betting operators to stop corruption.
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M6 – Enquete Exclusive – Sunday, June 1, 2008 —- Paris sportifs: Quand la Mafia s’-en mele…- –- [Sports bets: When the Mafia gets involved…]
1.6 million French people watched that TV show.
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Bo Cowgills boss = Hal Varian
UPDATE: Bo tells us: “-Actually, that’s my desk right behind him, in the top picture.”-
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Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google – (PDF file – PDF file) – by Bo Cowgill, Justin Wolfers, and Eric Zitwewitz – 2008-01-06
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Blip.TV –
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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:
- POLLS VERSUS PREDICTION MARKETS: Justin Wolfers retorts to Bob Erikson.
- Based on market data from a tiny prediction exchange (IEM, which is much smaller than InTrade-TradeSports or BetFair), a couple of researchers claim that prediction markets do not have superior predictive power. — And, adding salt to injury, they call our prediction market luminaries (Robin Hanson, Justin Wolfers, etc.)… “naive”.
- Do the media avoid reporting the bad omens that is sometimes reflected in the prediction markets?
- BetFair’s brand-new bet matching logic
- Quizz Of The Day — Monday Morning Edition
- BEWARE THE BLOGGING ACADEMICS: They are not blogging to inform us —they are blogging to promote themselves.
- Did Jason Ruspini and friends cash in on huge moves in prices of oil, natural gas, coal and other parts of the energy patch, this semester?
PREDICTION MARKETS HAVE ARRIVED: Bloomberg columnist shames Indias government FOR NOT USING prediction markets to forecast demand.
WOW. This is big.
Andy Mukherjee:
[…] Finally, demand estimation is too important to be left entirely to experts.
Companies such as Google Inc. are harnessing the power of prediction markets —- which gather information from a large number of participants —- to generate useful forecasts.
There’-s no reason why governments can’-t do the same.
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Great idea.
Let’-s shame the 95% of Fortune-500 companies for not using enterprise prediction markets.
- Shame on you, McDonald’-s, for not using enterprise prediction markets.
- Shame on you, Nike, for not using enterprise prediction markets.
- Shame on you, Conquest Capital, for not using enterprise prediction markets.
- etc. etc. etc.
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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:
- Midas Oracle is only 6 times smaller than Fred Wilson’s blog, “A VC”.
- The best blogs on prediction markets
- The New Republic profiles the next Vice President of the United States of America —Jim Webb, maybe.
- No Trades (other than at the start) —-> Not a reliable predictor, as of today
- How you should read Midas Oracle
- The best prediction exchanges
- “There will be no media consumption left in ten years that is not delivered over an IP network. There will be no newspapers, no magazines that are delivered in paper form. Everything gets delivered in an electronic form.”
The Wikipedia entry on prediction markets looks like a messy Marrakesh bazaar. – Shame on all members of the field of prediction markets -including the author of this present, finger-wagging post.
The Wikipedia entry on prediction markets does not seem to be well maintained.
Here are the warnings that welcome visitors. The first of the 2 warnings has been up since November 2007 —-that’-s 7 months ago!!!!!!
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And the definition opens on the big myth, create by IEM, and perpetuated by some scholars:
Prediction markets are speculative markets created for the purpose of making predictions.
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It’-s a big myth.
The TradeSports and BetFair prediction markets were primarily created to satisfy the traders —-their predictions come as an interesting offspring.
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