Prediction & Decision Markets – Robin Hanson Edition

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Presentation:

Prediction &amp- Decision Markets – (PPT file) – by Robin Hanson – 2008-04-17

And, that one, for your curiosity&#8230- really fascinating ( :-D ):

Evolutionary Game Theory of Interstellar Colonization – (PPT file) – by Robin Hanson – 2008-05-26

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Kudos to BetFair’s e-mail marketing team?
  • Conditional prediction markets about oil price and SegWay sales… Like the idea, Robin Hanson?
  • Justin Wolfers [*] is the most cited prediction market economist
  • The Orb @ Texas Tech University
  • IS IT SAFE TO LOCATE A PREDICTION EXCHANGE NEAR A RIVER???
  • RIVER RISING. POWER PLANT CLOSED. IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS AT RISK? DEVELOPING…
  • U.S. COAST GUARDS DEPLOYED TO SAVE THE IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS

DIY enterprise prediction markets as revelators of institutional lies

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Adam Siegel of Inkling Markets:

Mike,

The context of that discussion was talking about allowing people to create their own markets vs. having them only be run by a central entity or only through recommendations by a consulting firm.

We were also talking about the insights you may get by running prediction markets that are not readily apparent in the market results.

The original point was, by allowing people to ask as many questions as possible, the questions may be a signal themselves pointing to something that you didn’t previously know about. If someone asks a question about the probability of a risk factor occurring that you never even considered before, for example. That would never have been uncovered, otherwise, because the “prediction market administrators” wouldn’t even have known to ask.

BEWARE THE BLOGGING ACADEMICS: They are not blogging to inform us -they are blogging to promote themselves.

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The New York Times on the brand-new SSRN ranking functionality:

Bloggers like Mr. Reynolds [a university professor] tend to do well on the site, since they can promote their work and offer links to their articles.

Social Science Research Network – (SSRN)

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • The best research papers on prediction markets
  • 2008 Electoral Map
  • American Enterprise Institute’s Center For Regulatory And Market Studies (Policy Markets)
  • IIF’s SIG on Prediction Markets
  • Science
  • Why did prediction markets do well in the pre-polling era, professor Strumpf?
  • Mozilla FireFox users, do you have trouble downloading academic papers (as PDF files) from SSRN?

Did Jason Ruspini and friends cash in on huge moves in prices of oil, natural gas, coal and other parts of the energy patch, this semester?

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Wall Street Journal $$$:

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • The marketing association between BetFair and TOTE Tasmania works better than expected.
  • The term “event markets” sucks —and the uncritical thinkers using this crappy term suck too.
  • CLIMBING HIS WAY TO THE TOP: Erik Snowberg is now Assistant Professor of Economics and Political Science at California Institute of Technology.
  • Unlike other countries, the United States of America defends the freedom to offend in speech.
  • The best research papers on prediction markets
  • 2008 Electoral Map
  • American Enterprise Institute’s Center For Regulatory And Market Studies (Policy Markets)

BetFairs brand-new bet matching logic

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BetFair:

Betfair Customer Services 06 Jun 15:55

We held a forum Q&amp-A session in March in which we announced that we were working on an improved version of bet matching. This would allow us to match bets across selections, and to match those bets at better prices than requested where possible, as we do now when matching back bets against lay bets on the same selection. We wanted to provide customers with an update on our progress towards this.

An example of how this would work in practice:

You submit a bet request to back Roger Federer at 1.7, but there are no unmatched lay bets on Federer at 1.7 or higher to match your bet. However, we do have an unmatched customer request to back his opponent at 2.2 already on the system. The way matching works currently there are two possible outcomes:

1. your bet will remain unmatched, or
2. another customer will subsequently lay your bet, and it will be matched at 1.7, the price you requested.

With the improved bet matching process we would match your request to back Federer against the customer looking to back his opponent at 2.2, and provide an improvement to the price you requested. Your bet would be matched at the best possible price that is a valid increment on Betfair’s odds ladder, in this case 1.83.

As we mentioned during the Q&amp-A, doing the necessary calculations for an individual bet on a market with only two selections is relatively simple. However bet matching has to work efficiently in much more complex situations: i.e. in markets with many runners, where bets may be partially matched, and matched against bets at more than one price. We also understand that customers would expect no deterioration in the overall performance of bet matching as a result of us adding this functionality. It’s taken us a little longer than we originally hoped to find a solution that meets all those objectives. However we’ve coded a new version of bet matching, and our performance tests on the new process indicate that it will match backs against lays and bets across selections more efficiently than the existing bet matching process.

We are now into the final few weeks of testing, and expect to be ready to introduce this improvement to the site in early July. Again as we mentioned in the Q&amp-A it was a higher priority for us to find a way to provide price improvements for customers than to resolve issues around the withdrawal of non-runners, so we don’t intend to match bets across selections in horse racing markets in the near future. We’d therefore expect most situations where we would match across selections to occur in the busiest 2- and 3-runner markets, including football and tennis. It’s a busy month ahead for both those sports, and as we believe it’s prudent not to introduce this change at peak times we’ve taken the decision to wait until Euro 2008 and Wimbledon are completed. If Wimbledon is completed on schedule, and assuming remaining testing goes to plan, we expect to make this change to the site on Monday 7th July. We will confirm this nearer the time, but wanted to give customers advance notice as we’ve previously promised.

Thank you for your continued feedback.

More Old Info:

– Michael Robb

– Tony Clare

The New Republic profiles the next Vice President of the United States of America -Jim Webb, maybe.

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Via mister Bo Cowgill

The New Republic

Some British betting bloggers are completely out of the loop. :-D

UPDATE: Andrew Sullivan on Hillary Clinton&#8217-s exit statement. (He liked it.)

UPDATE: InTrade forum thread.

InTrade

Democratic Vice President Nominee

Price for 2008 Democratic Vice-Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Democratic Vice-Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Democratic Vice-Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Democratic Vice-Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

Republican Vice President Nominee

Price for 2008 Republican Vice-Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Republican Vice-Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Republican Vice-Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Republican Vice-Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

BetFair

Next Vice President:

Democratic Ticket

Democratic Vice President Nominee

Republican Vice President Nominee

NewsFutures

Barack Obama will pick a woman as running mate.

© NewsFutures


Explainer On Prediction Markets

Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that traders bring when they agree on prices. Prediction markets are meta forecasting tools that feed on the advanced indicators (i.e., the primary sources of information). Garbage in, garbage out&#8230- Intelligence in, intelligence out&#8230-

A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative can be interpreted as the objective probability of the future outcome (i.e., its most statistically accurate forecast). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, then 6 times out of 10, the favored outcome will occur- and 4 times out of 10, the unfavored outcome will occur.

Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism.

The best blogs on prediction markets

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CFM: Blogs

Midas Oracle: Links

Send me your blog URL, if you write on prediction markets &#8212-and I&#8217-ll Include it in the list (maybe :-D ).

The new kid on the block is The Quantified Pundit. Great blog name. :-D Bookmark it, and subscribe to its site feed. I recommend it highly.

  • Andrew &#8220-Bert&#8221- Black — Category: &#8220-BetFair&#8220-
  • Ask Markets —
  • Ashish Singal
  • Betdaq Exchange Views [U.K.] —
  • Betting @ BetFair [U.K.] —
  • Betting Market [U.K.] —
  • Bo Cowgill —
  • Caveat Bettor
  • Chris Hibbert — Category: &#8220-prediction markets&#8220-
  • Consensus Point — Decommissioned.
  • Freakonomics — Category: &#8220-prediction markets&#8220-
  • George Tziralis [Greece] —
  • HubDub
  • Inkling Markets
  • Jed Christiansen
  • Marginal Revolution
  • Media Predict —
  • Midas Oracle .COM – Group Blog on Prediction Markets For People
  • Midas Oracle .NET – Group Blog on Prediction Markets For Enterprises —
  • Midas Oracle .ORG – Group Blog on Prediction Markets For All
  • Mike Linksvayer — Category: &#8220-prediction markets&#8220-
  • NewsFutures
  • Odd Head — Category: &#8220-prediction markets&#8220-
  • Overcoming Bias — Category: &#8220-prediction markets&#8220-
  • Political Betting [U.K.] —
  • PopSci PPX —
  • Reality Markets —
  • Risk Markets And Politics —
  • The Sim Exchange —
  • Usable Markets — Category: &#8220-prediction markets&#8220-
  • Washington Stock Exchange —

Quite a small list.

Maybe, in the next update, I&#8217-ll add The Washington Wire from the WSJ. They seem to go the Wolfers route. WIll see.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • NewsFutures powers the prediction exchange of a prestigious French science magazine.
  • DIY enterprise prediction markets as revelators of institutional lies
  • So far, the Prediction Market Industry Association (PMIA) is a shallow organization run by a bunch of delirium-tremens incompetents. — It sounds too European, too French. — Yeah, it’s too French. — All words and no actions. — Hot air in a golden-painted balloon ready to burst.
  • The best presentations from the world’s best conference on enterprise prediction markets —ever
  • John Delaney and Mark Davies’ P.R. tactics suck.
  • Predictify is about building track records of human predictors.
  • Prediction & Decision Markets — Robin Hanson Edition

How you should read Midas Oracle

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • No Trades (other than at the start) —-> Not a reliable predictor, as of today
  • The best prediction exchanges
  • “There will be no media consumption left in ten years that is not delivered over an IP network. There will be no newspapers, no magazines that are delivered in paper form. Everything gets delivered in an electronic form.”
  • Hillary Clinton won’t be on the Democratic ticket. — It’s not going to happen. — N-E-V-E-R. — Not a chance. — Period.
  • Suggestion for WordPress — Subscribers’ Capabilities
  • This is why I said that those who believe that Hillary Clinton has a chance to be on the Democratic ticket are “clueless”.
  • WEB EXCLUSIVE: — The annoted, historical, compound chart that those triple morons at the BetFair blog are hiding from their readers’ view. — It is located in a secret cache, linked to behind a picture of Hillary Clinton. — Curious place to locate a prediction market chart. — I bet nobody downloaded that chart. —

Knows the similarity between Google, Craigs List, and the Drudge Report?

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Simplicity. Quite true. BetFair has gone the opposite trend these last months &#8212-more complexity.

More about Matt Drudge in The Politico.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • How you should read Midas Oracle
  • The best prediction exchanges
  • “There will be no media consumption left in ten years that is not delivered over an IP network. There will be no newspapers, no magazines that are delivered in paper form. Everything gets delivered in an electronic form.”
  • Hillary Clinton won’t be on the Democratic ticket. — It’s not going to happen. — N-E-V-E-R. — Not a chance. — Period.
  • Suggestion for WordPress — Subscribers’ Capabilities
  • This is why I said that those who believe that Hillary Clinton has a chance to be on the Democratic ticket are “clueless”.
  • WEB EXCLUSIVE: — The annoted, historical, compound chart that those triple morons at the BetFair blog are hiding from their readers’ view. — It is located in a secret cache, linked to behind a picture of Hillary Clinton. — Curious place to locate a prediction market chart. — I bet nobody downloaded that chart. —

This is why I said that those who believe that Hillary Clinton has a chance to be on the Democratic ticket are clueless.

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– Michelle [Obama] Vetoes Hillary [Clinton]. – by Robert Novak – May 20, 2008 &#8212-&#8211- mirror link.

A veto &#8212-it&#8217-s a strong word. Those British betting bloggers are out of the loop.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • The best prediction exchanges
  • “There will be no media consumption left in ten years that is not delivered over an IP network. There will be no newspapers, no magazines that are delivered in paper form. Everything gets delivered in an electronic form.”
  • Hillary Clinton won’t be on the Democratic ticket. — It’s not going to happen. — N-E-V-E-R. — Not a chance. — Period.
  • Suggestion for WordPress — Subscribers’ Capabilities
  • WEB EXCLUSIVE: — The annoted, historical, compound chart that those triple morons at the BetFair blog are hiding from their readers’ view. — It is located in a secret cache, linked to behind a picture of Hillary Clinton. — Curious place to locate a prediction market chart. — I bet nobody downloaded that chart. —
  • Knows the similarity between Google, Craig’s List, and the Drudge Report?
  • “Listening to each other is core to our culture, and we don’t listen to each other just because we’re all so smart. We listen because everyone has good ideas, and because it’s a great way to show respect. And any company, at any point in its history, can start listening more.”