Did Florian Riahi of Texodus Predictions really read those academic papers about prediction markets?

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I described in a previous post why I delisted his company from my list of prediction market consultants.

I want to share a remark with you, today. Here is a man from Holland who recruited by e-mail some US-based &#8220-advisors&#8221- &#8212-one ocean away. One curious online recruit he made is professor Christopher Wlezien, the co-author of an academic paper&#8230- that claims that prediction markets are *NO* better than damped polls:

For now, our results suggest the need for much more caution and less naive cheerleading about election markets on the part of prediction market advocates.

I bet that Florian Riahi didn&#8217-t read that paper, and I bet that professor Christopher Wlezien accepted the advisory slot in order to make the simple point that the &#8220-prediction market advocates&#8221- are just a bunch of baloneys who don&#8217-t read academic papers. :-D

Previously:

– How that prediction market consultant in Holland attracts economic advisers on the cheap

– I bet that those academic scholars…

Should research scientist David Pennock lead the Prediction Market Institute?

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Should we create a Prediction Market Institute?

– Should we ask doctor David Pennock to super-head it?

– Should we have a Prediction Markets Consortium that will anchor itself somewhere in an educational institution or non-profit foundation?

– Should we follow the ideas of Chris Masse, or should we follow someone else with better ideas?

Should we let the non-PM companies (Google/Yahoo!/MicroSoft) dictate to us the founding terms of this Prediction Market Institute?

– Shouldn&#8217-t the public prediction exchanges (InTrade, BetFair, HedgeStreet, Hollywood Stock Exchange, HubDub, NewsFutures, etc.) be more involved into the founding of this Prediction Market Institute?

– Should we let David Pennock rename &#8220-The Open Institute Of Prediction Markets&#8221- into a &#8220-Prediction Market Institute&#8221- without my prior agreement? :-D

Some enterprise prediction markets work very well… -some others are just a waste of time.

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Jed Christiansen:

[…] When it comes to the first point, forecasting something that the company already forecasts, prediction markets may or may not be an excellent solution. I’ve seen one set of markets that absolutely blew away the accuracy of current forecasts, and I’ve seen other markets that were consistent with current forecasts with little or no accuracy edge. […]

Care to say more about what is the determinant of an EPM success?

Removal of Florian Riahi of Texodus Predictions

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Dear readers,

I am informing you of the removal of Texodus Predictions from my listing of prediction market consultants. The listing is intended to display serious and professionally minded consultants, only.

Thanks for your attention.

Previously:

– How that prediction market consultant in Holland attracts economic advisers on the cheap

– I bet that those academic scholars…

Who is behind?

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IMPORTANT UPDATE REGARDING THE INCIDENT.

Somebody did set up a website making a fool of me. Searching who is behind this turned out the IP address of the NewsFutures server &#8212-but Emile Servan-Schreiber is as innocent as a lamb because this data was in fact fudged by the attacker (so as to wrongly put the blame on NewsFutures). It might well be the same thing for the IP that connected to comment here.

UPDATE:

Did the attacker try to pin it on, not just one, but *two* prediction market software vendors?

http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/03/13/did-the-attacker-try-to-pin-it-on-not-just-one-but-two-prediction-market-software-vendors/

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nashville

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Niall is not happy…

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Niall O&#8217-Connor:

Cowardly bastards …if this can be confirmed I will pass the story on to one of my contacts at the Guardian. And I will ensure that the other cowards who received emails last Friday about the websites, but chose to keep quiet are also exposed- by informing their companies of this obscene example of corporate bullying.