Tag Archives: US political elections

State Polls vs. Prediction Markets — 2008 US Presidential Election Prediction

Written by Chris F. Masse on November 4, 2008 — Leave a Comment

Here are the latest (and last) state polls and prediction market probabilities.
I am writing this post at 10:00 am —on Tuesday, November 4, 2008.
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Contents

a visual roundup of the prediction market probabilities for the 2008 US electoral college
the latest news about the race for the White House
a visual roundup of various electoral maps based on state [...]

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Also tagged 2008 US congressional elections, BetFair, betting exchanges, betting markets, charts, dashboard, Democratic party, democrats, electoral college, electoral college prediction markets, electoral map, electoral map prediction, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecast, Forecasting (Science & Practice), GOP, HubDub, Independents, InTrade, Midas Oracle, NewsFutures, next US Congress, next US president, objective probabilistic predictions, play-money prediction markets, political elections dashboard, political elections forecast, political elections predictions, political prediction markets, polls, polls versus prediction markets, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, prediction markets beat polls, Predictions, probabilistic predictions, probabilities, real-money prediction markets, Republican Party, republicans, state polls, Thrid Parties, TradeFair, TradeSports, U.S. House of Representatives, United States Of America, US Congress, US Congress prediction, US congressional elections, US elections, US politics, US President, US President prediction, US presidential elections, US Senate, US states, USA, vote predictor

2008 US electoral map prediction for the 2008 US presidential elections

Written by Chris F. Masse on October 23, 2008 — Leave a Comment

Folks,
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IMPORTANT NOTE:
- Till Election Day, this present blog (Midas Oracle .ORG) is going to update you once in a while about the horse race thru the lens of the prediction markets.
- Additionally, the other blog (Midas Oracle .COM) is going to publish many posts per day about the US elections (scheduled for [...]

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Also tagged 2008 US congressional elections, BetFair, betting exchanges, betting markets, charts, dashboard, Democratic party, democrats, electoral college, electoral college prediction markets, electoral map, electoral map prediction, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecast, Forecasting (Science & Practice), GOP, HubDub, Independents, InTrade, NewsFutures, next US Congress, next US president, objective probabilistic predictions, play-money prediction markets, political elections dashboard, political elections forecast, political elections predictions, political prediction markets, polls, polls versus prediction markets, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, prediction markets beat polls, Predictions, probabilistic predictions, probabilities, real-money prediction markets, Republican Party, republicans, Thrid Parties, TradeFair, TradeSports, U.S. House of Representatives, United States Of America, US Congress, US Congress prediction, US congressional elections, US elections, US politics, US President, US President prediction, US presidential elections, US Senate, US states, USA, vote predictor

2008 US Presidential and Congressional Elections Prediction: The Sarah Palin effect has partially evaporated, but its remains point to a close race, come Tuesday, November 4, 2008.

Written by Chris F. Masse on September 23, 2008 — Leave a Comment

#1. Explainer On Prediction Markets
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A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the [...]

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Also tagged 2008 US congressional elections, bet exchanges, BetFair, betting exchanges, betting markets, charts, dashboard, Democratic party, democrats, electoral college, electoral college prediction markets, electoral map, electoral map prediction, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecast, Forecasting (Science & Practice), GOP, HubDub, Independents, InTrade, Midas Oracle, NewsFutures, next US Congress, next US president, objective probabilistic predictions, play-money prediction markets, political elections dashboard, political elections forecast, political elections predictions, political prediction markets, polls, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, prediction markets beat polls, Predictions, probabilistic predictions, probabilities, real-money prediction markets, Republican Party, republicans, Thrid Parties, TradeFair, TradeSports, U.S. House of Representatives, United States Of America, US Congress, US Congress prediction, US congressional elections, US elections, US politics, US President, US President prediction, US presidential elections, US Senate, US states, USA, vote predictor

A Democratic sweep in Washington DC, in November 2008, will likely lead to the legalization of the real-money prediction markets.

Written by Chris F. Masse on January 22, 2008 — 1 Comment

Gambling 911:
With the Nevada Caucuses taking place this Saturday, The Las Vegas Sun reports that Democrat Hillary Clinton supports a study to determine if Internet gambling can be fairly regulated so that individuals can safely participate in it and American businesses can compete in the international market.
I was not able to find that article [...]

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics, Regulations | Also tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US political elections, 2008 US presidential elections, BetFair, Betting, Democratic candidate, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Gambling, Hillary Clinton, Internet betting, Internet gambling, Internet Gambling Prohibition and Enforcement Act, InTrade, NewsFutures, online betting, online gambling, Politics, prediction markets, President, Republican candidate, The Las Vegas Sun, U.S. House of Representatives, United States, United States Senate, Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006, US elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections, Washington D.C., Will Be Democratic, Winning Party

Yahoo! Election 2008 Political Dashboard

Written by David Pennock on December 17, 2007 — Leave a Comment

(Cross posted from Oddhead Blog.)
I’m happy to report the launch of the Yahoo! Election ‘08 Political Dashboard. Using the dashboard, you can navigate through a wealth of election-related data, including prediction market data from intrade.com, polling data from Real Clear Politics, search buzz data from Yahoo!, and financial contributions data, regional demographic data, and historical [...]

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Resources - References | Also tagged InTrade, prediction markets, search buzz data, US President, US presidential elections, Yahoo!, Yahoo! News US Political Dashboard

DAVID PENNOCK’S YAHOO! ENDORSE IRELAND-BASED, ILLEGAL, REAL-MONEY PREDICTION MARKETS.

Written by Chris F. Masse on December 15, 2007 — Leave a Comment

UPDATE: Someone points to me that there is no hyperlink between Yahoo! News Dashboard and InTrade. Indeed.

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Resources - References | Also tagged InTrade, Ireland, prediction markets, US President, US presidential elections, Yahoo!, Yahoo! News US Political Dashboard

My understanding was that she wasn’t Treasury secretary in the Clinton administration, so I don’t know exactly what experiences she’s claiming.

Written by Chris F. Masse on December 12, 2007 — Leave a Comment

Barak Obama on Hillary Clinton. Everybody laughed. New York Times columnist Maureen Dowd (in a November column) continues:
Hillary [Clinton] did not show good judgment in her areas of influence — the legal fiefdom, health care and running oppo-campaigns against Bill’s galpals.
“She hasn’t accomplished anything on her own since getting admitted to Yale Law,” wrote Joan [...]

Posted in Entrepreneurship, Humor, Politics | Also tagged Barak Obama, Boston, Clinton administration, columnist, Dianne Feinstein, Hillary Clinton, Joan Di Cola, lawyer, Madam Speaker, Maureen Dowd, mayor, Nancy Pelosi, New York Times, President, San Francisco, Senator, The Wall Street Journal, treasury secretary, United States, US President, US presidential elections, Yale

Electability of Hillary Clinton according to InTrade-TradeSports = 65%

Written by Chris F. Masse on December 12, 2007 — 2 Comments

Eddy Elfenbein at Crossing Wall Street:
I written about this topic before but one of the things I find fascinating about finance is how you can use markets for two items to create an “implied market” for a third. This idea is at the root of all the complex financial instruments that caused problems for so [...]

Posted in Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Also tagged Crossing Wall Street, Eddy Elfenbein, electability, Finance, Ford, Gerald Ford, Hillary Clinton, InTrade, Jimmy Carter, prediction markets, Republican Party, Ronald Reagan, Rudy Giuliani, US President, US presidential elections

Iowa Caucus: British blogger Mike Smithson is selling Hillary Clinton short.

Written by Chris F. Masse on December 7, 2007 — Leave a Comment

Mike Smithson in the Financial Times today:
[...] Feeding the development of political gambling is in his own interest. Mr Smithson estimates that there are as few as 1,500 regular political gamblers [*] in the UK, although the number swells to millions on the eve of an election. US constraints on online gambling have impeded the [...]

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Market Calls), Betting, Exchanges & Markets | Also tagged Arkansas, GBP, Hillary Clinton, Iowa, Mike Huckabee, Mike Smithson, online gambling, the Financial Times, United Kingdom, United States, US President, US presidential elections

Could a political campaign use prediction markets?

Written by Adam Siegel on November 26, 2007 — Leave a Comment

This is cross-posted from our Inkling Markets blog where we have far fewer readers than the illustrious Midas Oracle. …
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There are several prediction marketplaces out there for the upcoming U.S. election season and probably more to come. All the ones we know of are intended for participation by the general public. But what if [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Market Proposals), Exchanges & Markets, Politics | Also tagged advisors, event derivative markets, event derivatives, major candidate, Online Presence, online social networks, political operative, Politics, post-appearance local media coverage, prediction markets, United States, US President, US presidential elections

Tag Archives: US political elections

State Polls vs. Prediction Markets — 2008 US Presidential Election Prediction

2008 US electoral map prediction for the 2008 US presidential elections

2008 US Presidential and Congressional Elections Prediction: The Sarah Palin effect has partially evaporated, but its remains point to a close race, come Tuesday, November 4, 2008.

A Democratic sweep in Washington DC, in November 2008, will likely lead to the legalization of the real-money prediction markets.

Yahoo! Election 2008 Political Dashboard

DAVID PENNOCK’S YAHOO! ENDORSE IRELAND-BASED, ILLEGAL, REAL-MONEY PREDICTION MARKETS.

My understanding was that she wasn’t Treasury secretary in the Clinton administration, so I don’t know exactly what experiences she’s claiming.

Electability of Hillary Clinton according to InTrade-TradeSports = 65%

Iowa Caucus: British blogger Mike Smithson is selling Hillary Clinton short.

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