Tag Archives: US political elections

State Polls vs. Prediction Markets — 2008 US Presidential Election Prediction

Posted on November 4, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Here are the latest (and last) state polls and prediction market probabilities. I am writing this post at 10:00 am —on Tuesday, November 4, 2008. – Contents a visual roundup of the prediction market probabilities for the 2008 US electoral … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged 2008 US congressional elections, BetFair, betting exchanges, betting markets, charts, dashboard, Democratic party, democrats, electoral college, electoral college prediction markets, electoral map, electoral map prediction, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecast, Forecasting (Science & Practice), GOP, HubDub, Independents, InTrade, Midas Oracle, NewsFutures, next US Congress, next US president, objective probabilistic predictions, play-money prediction markets, political elections dashboard, political elections forecast, political elections predictions, political prediction markets, polls, polls versus prediction markets, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, prediction markets beat polls, Predictions, probabilistic predictions, probabilities, real-money prediction markets, Republican Party, republicans, state polls, Thrid Parties, TradeFair, TradeSports, U.S. House of Representatives, United States Of America, US Congress, US Congress prediction, US congressional elections, US elections, US political elections, US politics, US President, US President prediction, US presidential elections, US Senate, US states, USA, vote predictor | Leave a comment

2008 US electoral map prediction for the 2008 US presidential elections

Posted on October 23, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Folks, – IMPORTANT NOTE: – Till Election Day, this present blog (Midas Oracle .ORG) is going to update you once in a while about the horse race thru the lens of the prediction markets. – Additionally, the other blog (Midas … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged 2008 US congressional elections, BetFair, betting exchanges, betting markets, charts, dashboard, Democratic party, democrats, electoral college, electoral college prediction markets, electoral map, electoral map prediction, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecast, Forecasting (Science & Practice), GOP, HubDub, Independents, InTrade, NewsFutures, next US Congress, next US president, objective probabilistic predictions, play-money prediction markets, political elections dashboard, political elections forecast, political elections predictions, political prediction markets, polls, polls versus prediction markets, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, prediction markets beat polls, Predictions, probabilistic predictions, probabilities, real-money prediction markets, Republican Party, republicans, Thrid Parties, TradeFair, TradeSports, U.S. House of Representatives, United States Of America, US Congress, US Congress prediction, US congressional elections, US elections, US political elections, US politics, US President, US President prediction, US presidential elections, US Senate, US states, USA, vote predictor | Leave a comment

2008 US Presidential and Congressional Elections Prediction: The Sarah Palin effect has partially evaporated, but its remains point to a close race, come Tuesday, November 4, 2008.

Posted on September 23, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

#1. Explainer On Prediction Markets – A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged 2008 US congressional elections, bet exchanges, BetFair, betting exchanges, betting markets, charts, dashboard, Democratic party, democrats, electoral college, electoral college prediction markets, electoral map, electoral map prediction, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecast, Forecasting (Science & Practice), GOP, HubDub, Independents, InTrade, Midas Oracle, NewsFutures, next US Congress, next US president, objective probabilistic predictions, play-money prediction markets, political elections dashboard, political elections forecast, political elections predictions, political prediction markets, polls, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, prediction markets beat polls, Predictions, probabilistic predictions, probabilities, real-money prediction markets, Republican Party, republicans, Thrid Parties, TradeFair, TradeSports, U.S. House of Representatives, United States Of America, US Congress, US Congress prediction, US congressional elections, US elections, US political elections, US politics, US President, US President prediction, US presidential elections, US Senate, US states, USA, vote predictor | Leave a comment

A Democratic sweep in Washington DC, in November 2008, will likely lead to the legalization of the real-money prediction markets.

Posted on January 22, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Gambling 911: With the Nevada Caucuses taking place this Saturday, The Las Vegas Sun reports that Democrat Hillary Clinton supports a study to determine if Internet gambling can be fairly regulated so that individuals can safely participate in it and … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics, Regulations | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US political elections, 2008 US presidential elections, BetFair, Betting, Democratic candidate, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Gambling, Hillary Clinton, Internet betting, Internet gambling, Internet Gambling Prohibition and Enforcement Act, InTrade, NewsFutures, online betting, online gambling, Politics, prediction markets, President, Republican candidate, The Las Vegas Sun, U.S. House of Representatives, United States, United States Senate, Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006, US elections, US political elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections, Washington D.C., Will Be Democratic, Winning Party | 1 Comment

Yahoo! Election 2008 Political Dashboard

Posted on December 17, 2007 by David Pennock

(Cross posted from Oddhead Blog.) I’m happy to report the launch of the Yahoo! Election ’08 Political Dashboard. Using the dashboard, you can navigate through a wealth of election-related data, including prediction market data from intrade.com, polling data from Real … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Resources - References | Tagged InTrade, prediction markets, search buzz data, US political elections, US President, US presidential elections, Yahoo!, Yahoo! News US Political Dashboard | Leave a comment

DAVID PENNOCK’S YAHOO! ENDORSE IRELAND-BASED, ILLEGAL, REAL-MONEY PREDICTION MARKETS.

Posted on December 15, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

UPDATE: Someone points to me that there is no hyperlink between Yahoo! News Dashboard and InTrade. Indeed.

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Resources - References | Tagged InTrade, Ireland, prediction markets, US political elections, US President, US presidential elections, Yahoo!, Yahoo! News US Political Dashboard | Leave a comment

My understanding was that she wasnâ€™t Treasury secretary in the Clinton administration, so I donâ€™t know exactly what experiences sheâ€™s claiming.

Posted on December 12, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Barak Obama on Hillary Clinton. Everybody laughed. New York Times columnist Maureen Dowd (in a November column) continues: Hillary [Clinton] did not show good judgment in her areas of influence â€” the legal fiefdom, health care and running oppo-campaigns against … Continue reading →

Posted in Entrepreneurship, Humor, Politics | Tagged Barak Obama, Boston, Clinton administration, columnist, Dianne Feinstein, Hillary Clinton, Joan Di Cola, lawyer, Madam Speaker, Maureen Dowd, mayor, Nancy Pelosi, New York Times, President, San Francisco, Senator, The Wall Street Journal, treasury secretary, United States, US political elections, US President, US presidential elections, Yale | Leave a comment

Electability of Hillary Clinton according to InTrade-TradeSports = 65%

Posted on December 12, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Eddy Elfenbein at Crossing Wall Street: I written about this topic before but one of the things I find fascinating about finance is how you can use markets for two items to create an â€œimplied marketâ€ for a third. This … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged Crossing Wall Street, Eddy Elfenbein, electability, Finance, Ford, Gerald Ford, Hillary Clinton, InTrade, Jimmy Carter, prediction markets, Republican Party, Ronald Reagan, Rudy Giuliani, US political elections, US President, US presidential elections | 2 Comments

Iowa Caucus: British blogger Mike Smithson is selling Hillary Clinton short.

Posted on December 7, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Mike Smithson in the Financial Times today: [...] Feeding the development of political gambling is in his own interest. Mr Smithson estimates that there are as few as 1,500 regular political gamblers [*] in the UK, although the number swells … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Market Calls), Betting, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged Arkansas, GBP, Hillary Clinton, Iowa, Mike Huckabee, Mike Smithson, online gambling, the Financial Times, United Kingdom, United States, US political elections, US President, US presidential elections | Leave a comment

Could a political campaign use prediction markets?

Posted on November 26, 2007 by Adam Siegel

This is cross-posted from our Inkling Markets blog where we have far fewer readers than the illustrious Midas Oracle. … — There are several prediction marketplaces out there for the upcoming U.S. election season and probably more to come. All … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Market Proposals), Exchanges & Markets, Politics | Tagged advisors, event derivative markets, event derivatives, major candidate, Online Presence, online social networks, political operative, Politics, post-appearance local media coverage, prediction markets, United States, US political elections, US President, US presidential elections | Leave a comment