Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: The Guardian

TRAFIGURA: The Guardian was served with a gagging order forbidding it from reporting parliamentary business.

“The Guardian is prevented from identifying the MP who has asked the question, what the question is, which minister might answer it, or where the question is to be found. The Guardian is also forbidden from telling its readers why the paper is prevented – for the first time in memory – from reporting parliament.”
“The [...]

UK’s Guardian lambasts Mr Crystal Balls Nate Silver.

“A less-than-brilliant Oscars for Nate Silver, who used his skills as a baseball statistics nerd to turn his politics blog, FiveThirtyEight.com, into the online hit of last year’s election. Silver predicted the presidential outcome with eerie precision, and gamely crunched the numbers for Sunday’s awards ceremony too, weighing such factors as release date, box office [...]

The Guardian now treats BetFair as a monopoly.

- The Guardian on the BetFair premium charges, the privatization of the BetFair forum, and BetFair’s monopoly. – [Our previous story.]

- The Financial Times on the BetFair prediction market(s) about the next UK general elections.

#1 —above The Guardian… and far above BetFair.

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UPDATE:

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PREVIOUSLY: BetFair impose new “Premium Charges”… Do BetFair gag the critics, too?
UPDATE: They announce a Q&A.

Some vocal event derivative traders reject the new BetFair “premium charges” —as a matter of principle.

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PREVIOUSLY: BetFair impose new “Premium Charges”… Do BetFair gag the critics, too?
UPDATE: They announce a Q&A.

BetFair impose new “Premium Charges”, and their very active traders are up in arms. – Plus, do BetFair gag the critics?

My analysis of this PR debacle:

BetFair has a very complex information technology system, which is very costly, making BetFair less profitable than the fixed-odds betting operators (the big British bookmakers). They attack the problem with a dual approach: they try to lower the IT costs associated with each bet transaction (see FlyWheel Lite), and they [...]

Nick Davis’ effort to clean up British horse racing

The Guardian
Nick Davis’ thread on the BetFair forum … that started the grass-root campaign.
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Thanks to Betting Market and BetFair for the deep links.
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JIMMY CARTER: Picking up Hillary Clinton on the Democratic ticket “would be the worst mistake that could be made”.

The Guardian
Take that, Mike R.
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Reminder: I have stong reservations about those VP prediction markets. (But Bo compels me to publish about them anyway. )
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InTrade
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Democratic Vice President Nominee

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Republican Vice President Nominee

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BetFair
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Next Vice President:

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Democratic Ticket

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Democratic Vice President Nominee

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Republican Vice President Nominee

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NewsFutures
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Barack Obama will pick [...]

Tennis is not systematically nor institutionally corrupt. There is no evidence of a link to the Mafia.

Only 45 suspicious tennis matches out of the hundreds of thousands of matches played over the last five years.
That’s peanuts.
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Via Steve Roman
Bloomberg
New York Times
The Times (of London)
The Guardian
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Previously: The Mark Davies speech on sports, corruption, sports betting, and BetFair
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Has BetFair a little part of responsibility in the collapse of the Kieren Fallon trial (which cost British taxpayers £950,000)?

BetFair actively report betting that appears to them out of the ordinary. And, if any sport regulator has concerns, then BetFair provide them with additional information. BetFair, of course, has no say in whether a criminal offense has been committed, and no input into the prosecution (the Crown Prosecution Service).
In the Fallon case (an Irish [...]

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