Tag Archives: Senate

CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts

Posted on June 17, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

CFTC – (PDF file): CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts – SUMMARY: The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (Commission or CFTC) is soliciting comment on the appropriate regulatory treatment of financial agreements offered by markets commonly … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Regulations | Tagged 202.418.5521, 202.418.5578, AEI-Brookings Joint Center, American Enterprise Institute, bet markets, betting markets, binary options, Bruce Fekrat, by-products, Capper, catastrophe single event insurance option contracts, CFTC, Chicago Board Of Trade, commodity futures, commodity futures contracts, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, commodity options, commodity options contracts, Congress, cottonseed oil, crude oil, D.C., David A. Stawick, definitions, Director, Division of Market Oversight, Eric W. Zitzewitz, event contracts, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event futures, event markets, Explainers, futures contracts, futures markets, governor, Hal R. Varian, House Committee on Agriculture, House-Senate Conference Committee, InTrade, Iraq, Jason Ruspini, Justin Wolfers, laws, legalization, livestock products, Michael Abramowicz, Michael Gorham, natural gas, office, particular candidate for political office, particular presidential candidate, Paul C. Tetlock, Paul Wolfowitz, peanut oil, Porter, prediction markets, predictive tools, producer, real-money prediction markets, Regulations, retail customers, retail market participants, retail users, Robert W. Hahn, Secretary, Senate, Senate Committee on Agriculture and Forestry, South Carolina, soybean oil, Special Counsel, specific candidate, specific farmer, the New York Times, The University of Iowa, Three Lafayette Centre, Tom W. Bell, Trader, United States, United States Of America, University of Iowa Departments of Accounting and Economics, University's College of Business Administration, USD, Valencia, Vernon Smith, Washington, West Coast, young economist | 24 Comments

Collecting bits and pieces of information, and aggregating it, so we can understand what people know.

Posted on May 13, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Charles Plott has nailed it. – I would lay out this dichotomy: Some of our academics, consultants, and exchange executives have sold the prediction markets as the ultimate forecasting tool —which is true, but people translated that as “this is … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Explainers | Tagged Alaska, Charles Plott, Collective Intelligence, event derivative markets, event derivatives, hype, InTrade, Justin Wolfers, meta forecasting tools, omniscient tool, prediction markets, Senate, ultimate forecasting tool, usage, USD, wisdom of crowds | Leave a comment

Self-Serving Prediction Market Of The Day — Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006

Posted on April 14, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

InTrade: New Market: Amendment to UIGEA Monday, Apr 14, 2008 We have listed a contract on an amendment to the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act being passed before the end of 2010, and that Rep. Barney Frank will be a … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets, Market Contract Statements | Tagged Barney Frank, Congress, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Internet Gambling Enforcement Act, Internet Gaming, InTrade, John Delaney, Library of Congress, media sources, prediction markets, President, President for signing, Senate, United States, Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006, USD | Leave a comment

Justin Wolfers will be glued on InTrade on Super Tuesday night.

Posted on February 5, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Much better piece than last time. No more prediction market event study —quite boring and of dubious quality. This time, he outputs a quality forward-looking piece, with a good narrative. [...] While momentum tends to build slowly in polling data, … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Clinton, distributed computing, InTrade, Justin Wolfers, Politics, prediction markets, Prime Minister, Senate, Super Tuesday, The WSJ editor, US elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections, Wall Street Journal | 2 Comments

InTrade is no psychic —but what if that bit of truth is systematically said BEFORE, as opposed to AFTER.

Posted on January 14, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

David Leonhart in his New York Times blog, last week: The political prediction markets just went through their version of the dot-com bubble. [...] Intradeâ€™s odds have had a very good forecasting record over the last few years, having correctly … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce | Tagged accuracy, David Leonhart, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecasting tool of convenience, InTrade, John McCain, New Hampshire, New York Times, prediction markets, probabilities, Rudolph W. Giuliani, Senate, United States | Leave a comment

The New Hampshire Hypothesis

Posted on January 11, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Finally, the BetFair blog publishes one interesting post. It was about time. From our usual British suspect, professor Leighton Vaughan-Williams (who was on ABC News lately) —who else. How did everyone get New Hampshire so horribly wrong? These are the … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets | Tagged ABC, accuracy, Barack Obama, BetFair, Betting Research Unit, Director, Director of the Political Forecasting Unit and Betting Research Unit, event derivative markets, event derivatives, First Lady, Hillary Clinton, Illinois, InTrade, Iowa, John McCain, Leighton Vaughan-Williams, Mike Huckabee, New Hampshire, New York, Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University, Political Forecasting Unit, prediction markets, Professor, Senate, Senator, United States Senate | Leave a comment

Not since 1928 has there been a US presidential election with neither a sitting president or vice president running.

Posted on January 3, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

CNBC Streaming Video: Trading The Election The start of the biggest election in 80 years begins Thursday. Not since 1928 has there been an election with neither a sitting president or vice president running. The polls have the leading candidates … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Everybody Wants to Rule the World, InTrade, online prediction market, Politics, prediction markets, Senate, sitting president, Streaming Video, United States, US elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections, vice president, White House | Leave a comment

NBC News Tim Russert (the host of Meet The Press) would have not expired the Larry Craig contract too early.

Posted on December 26, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

“[I]t is my intent to resign from the Senate, effective September 30 [2007]“, said US Senator Larry Craig. (Important note: In that same output, he did not say that he would not seek another term.) Based on this vague statement … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry | Tagged intent, intention, John McCain, Larry Craig, lawyer, Member, NBC, President, Senate, Tim Russert, United States, United States Senate, USD, Well | Leave a comment

Michael Mukasey is the next US Attorney General, according to InTrade-TradeSports.

Posted on November 8, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

— The New York Times: The Senate Judiciary Committee voted on Tuesday to approve the nomination of Michael B. Mukasey as attorney general despite opposition from most of the committeeâ€™s Democrats over Mr. Mukaseyâ€™s refusal to label a harsh interrogation … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged attorney general, InTrade, Judiciary Committee, Michael B. Mukasey, Michael Mukasey, next Attorney General, prediction markets, Senate, the New York Times, United States, US Attorney General | Leave a comment

Prediction market infiltrations in the media – US vs. UK

Posted on October 5, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Folks, I want to tackle this important issue in this blog post. But first, I will excerpt two news articles from The Economist. The first one was written by their American correspondence, and the second one was written by their … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged ABC, America, Barack Obama, Christmas, D.C., economist, Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Ladbrokes Hill, Leighton Vaughan-Williams, Nottingham Trent University's Betting Research Unit, online betting markets, Prime Minister, Professor, Republican Party, Senate, The Economist, United Kingdom, United States, USD, Washington, Washington Post, White House, William Hill | Leave a comment

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