Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: reading

Excerpts of the BetFair’s answers to their traders’ questions

About the new bet-matching logic:
It’s not clear why you believe that the majority of those customers who use Betfair’s forum are unhappy about the introduction of the improved matching logic. The sport this will most significantly benefit is football [soccer], and there’s nothing we’ve heard from our football customers that would suggest they’re unhappy, nor [...]

How BetFair screw up the “Next Mayor Of London” embeddable, enriched, compound chart widget —BIG TIME

-
PUT YOUR MOUSE CURSOR ON ONE OF THE WHITE DOTS PRESENT ON THE CHART, AND SPOT THE POP-UP MESSAGE.
-
IF YOU’RE READING THIS FROM WITHIN YOUR FEED READER, GO TO THE BLOG POST, ON THE MIDAS ORACLE WEBSITE, BECAUSE THE BETFAIR CHART WIDGET IN QUESTION DOESN’T APPEAR IN THE FEED.
-
-
1. The chart should output the market-generated, [...]

Decision Markets and Futarchy are solutions in desperate search for a problem to solve and for their early adopters… and that may stay that way well after Robin Hanson’s head gets cryogenized.

-
Robin Hanson:
[...] We rarely seek out advice, and when we do it is usually on much smaller decisions. [...] One reason we avoid getting advice is that it lowers our status relative to those who give advice. Of course this is also makes asking for advice a good way to flatter and supplicate. Not sure [...]

How InTrade-TradeSports and BetFair-TradeFair should reach out

-
Fred Wilson (a famous NY-based venture capitalist, a “VC”):
Really think about if you need that $15,000 a month PR firm. – There are some really good PR firms out there and if you can get one of them to work with your company, then it may be worth considering it. But a mediocre PR firm [...]

WordPress is a bit like WikiMedia (the software powering Wikipedia), now.

Two weeks ago, I was seeking a WordPress way to have multiple authors for a post or a page. I found 2 interesting plugins.

The CO-AUTHORS plugin, which does what it says. One specific post or page can be assigned two or more co-author(s) by the blog editor. Very interesting. (I don’t get why the plugin [...]

Midas Oracle readers = information workers

Bill Gates (the head of the Evil Empire):
The skills you need to succeed
One of the most important changes of the last 30 years is that digital technology has transformed almost everyone into an information worker. [...]
I also place a high value on having a passion for ongoing learning. When I was pretty young, I picked [...]

Reading the Markets – Forecasting Prediction Markets By News Content Analysis

Reading the Markets – Forecasting Prediction Markets By News Content Analysis – (PDF file) – by Ari Gilder and Kevin Lerman – 2007-xx-xx
Abstract
We present a system for predicting price fluctuations in Prediction Markets, such as TradeSports and the Iowa Electronic Markets. Our approach utilizes both market history and public news articles, published before the beginning [...]

BOMBASTIC CLAIM: Today’s prediction markets are far from being efficient.

[The IEM prediction] markets were not even weakly efficient.

Hillary Clinton – IEM vs. Linguistic analysis of news articles

Rudy Giuliani – IEM vs. Linguistic analysis of news articles


NEXT: Reading the Markets – Forecasting Prediction Markets By News Content Analysis

MENTAL HEALTH EXPERTS: INKLING HOBBY IS GOOD FOR ENERGY ECONOMIST MICHAEL GIBERSON.

The New York Times:
Carol Kauffman, an assistant clinical professor at Harvard Medical School: “When you’re really engaged in a hobby you love, you lose your sense of time and enter what’s called a flow state, and that restores your mind and energy.” [...] “That positive emotion builds your cognitive and social skills. If you follow [...]

TradeSports has not enough liquidity and is too much dependent on human market makers.

That’s the conclusion I draw from reading this long complaint from Todd Griepenburg —who felt that a market maker left him high and dry.

Search

Post Categories