Emile Servan-Schreiber: Mr. Kristof, if you want to keep yourself accountable and track the success of your predictions in the long run and in real-time, why not simply participate in a prediction market such as NewsFutures? You could suggest that … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Betting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged Bet 2 Give, Bet2Give, expertise, experts, HubDub, inkling markets, InTrade, NewsFutures, prediction markets, pundits, scholars, track records | Leave a comment

Track records + Prediction markets — Will they mix up well?

Posted on March 26, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Yet another reason why we should *not* call it the “Prediction Market Institute”… Nicholas Kristof: So what about a system to evaluate us prognosticators? Professor Tetlock suggests that various foundations might try to create a â€œtrans-ideological Consumer Reports for punditry,â€ … Continue reading →

Posted in Forecasting (Science & Practice), Midas Oracle Project, Science | Tagged expertise, experts, Prediction Market Institute, pundits, scholars, track records | 1 Comment

Handbags are down as one info-tech predictor defends his reputation against the one-year-later reality check done by HubDub.

Posted on January 13, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

HubDub has investigated and graded the 2008 predictions of some notorious pundits. One of those pundits didn’t take it graciously —look down for the comments. -

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged Forecasting (Science & Practice), HubDub, prediction markets, Predictions, pundits, reality checks | Leave a comment

“Still, as noted, it was a good election for [the] prediction markets and another piece of evidence of their superiority over the pundit[s] (and at least parity with the poll).”

Posted on November 25, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Dixit Nigel Eccles in a comment. – at least parity with the poll – I agree with the above. – their superiority over the pundits – What documented evidence do you have about that, mister the cocky entrepreneurial Scotsman? John … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged 2008 US presidential elections, accuracy, betting markets, event derivative markets, experts, Forecasting (Science & Practice), polls, prediction accuracy, prediction markets, pundits, state polls | 2 Comments

VIDEO: Max Keiser’s attempt at predicting the future —subjectively

Posted on June 19, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Overall, the TV show is based on a good concept (trying to predict future headlines), and I’m sure it will be a success in the end. However, one big mistake Max is doing is to have female journalists. Sorry to … Continue reading →

Posted in Forecasting (Science & Practice), Prediction Journalism | Tagged jounalism, journalists, Max Keiser, prediction markets, Predictions, predictors, pundits, The Oracle, TV, videos | 1 Comment

Prediction markets are forecasting tools of convenience that feed on advanced indicators.

Posted on January 9, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Why were the political prediction markets so wrong about Barak Obama and Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire? …asks Slate’s Daniel Gross —via Mister Usability (Alex Kirtland), who needs to go and get his own gravatar. So, I’ve been watching the … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Journalism | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Alex Kirtland, Barack Obama, Barak Obama, BetFair, business professor, Chris Masse, Dan Gross, Daniel Gross, Donald Luskin, economist, Emile Servan-Scheiber, Emile Servan-Schreiber, event derivative markets, event derivatives, experts, failure, fiasco, forecasting tool of convenience, Forrest Nelson, France, Hillary Clinton, InTrade, Iowa, Justin Wolfers, Markos Moulitsas, Michael Giberson, New Hampshire, NewsFutures, Niall O'Connor, Pennsylvania, Politics, polls, prediction markets, pundits, Robin Hanson, success, The Netherlands, the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, ultimate forecasting tool, United States, US elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections, western Europe | 3 Comments

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