I raved the other day about the coming of search engines for (public) data, and I dreamed up about search engines for prediction market data. What I completely forgot to mention is that most of prediction exchanges don’t publish their archives on the Web. Most prediction exchanges (but HubDub) make it impossible for any search [...]
Paul Hewitt:
My review of the literature and case studies (that have been published) indicates that prediction markets have improved the accuracy of forecasts, but the improvements have not been great enough to encourage widespread (or even minimal) acceptance. Furthermore, these studies like to average their results over a number of markets, disguising the fact that [...]
Paul Hewitt asses a research paper by the Iowa Electronic Markets scholars… and what’s left is just a little stack of ashes.
Jed Christiansen:
[...] When it comes to the first point, forecasting something that the company already forecasts, prediction markets may or may not be an excellent solution. I’ve seen one set of markets that absolutely blew away the accuracy of current forecasts, and I’ve seen other markets that were consistent with current forecasts with little or [...]
Just 2 short thoughts to respond to Jed Christiansen, who was kind enough to analyze my prediction market statement.
Strangely, Chris’ writings on prediction markets have become quite negative in recent months.
I am actually trying to be more realistic than the crowd.
Jed, if you read closely the intro on top of the blog frontpage, [...]
The danger of vendor conferences without any editorial line: It backfires against the whole prediction markets industry —big time.
I warned my readers many times against the vendor conferences organized by the San Francisco man. He is so desperate that he invites anybody who will pronounce the word “prediction” and “markets” in the same paragraph. Many [...]
An uncertain future – A novel way of generating forecasts has yet to take off. – by The Economist – 2009-02-26
- But although they have spread beyond early-adopting companies in the technology industry, they have still not become mainstream management tools. Even fervent advocates admit much remains to be done to convince sceptical managers of [...]
A president of the United States Of America was assassinated in Dallas, on Friday, November 22, 1963. That was the 9/11 of that era.
Following the arrest (and assassination) of Lee Harvey Oswald, a number of people advocated his innocence —and, instead, claimed that the death of JFK was the result of a CIA–FBI–Military conspiracy. A [...]
I have spent several hours re-reading the 2004 AEI-Brookings book, “Information Markets” (by which they mean “prediction markets”). It is a collection of un-enlightening research articles —except for the IEM article, which is outstanding, both on the factual and theoretical sides.
In the conclusion of their introduction, Robert Hahn and Paul Tetlock wrote that they want [...]
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