Tag Archives: public prediction markets

No prediction market archives on the Web = No search engines for prediction market data

Posted on May 7, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

I raved the other day about the coming of search engines for (public) data, and I dreamed up about search engines for prediction market data. What I completely forgot to mention is that most of prediction exchanges don’t publish their … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Information Technology, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce | Tagged betting markets, event derivative markets, Google, Google Search, Google Web Search, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, public data, public prediction exchanges, public prediction markets, Search Engines, Stephen Wolfram, Wolfram, Wolfram Alpha | 4 Comments

Enterprise prediction markets have no benefits for businesses.

Posted on May 5, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Paul Hewitt: My review of the literature and case studies (that have been published) indicates that prediction markets have improved the accuracy of forecasts, but the improvements have not been great enough to encourage widespread (or even minimal) acceptance. Furthermore, … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Cases, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged businesses, Consensus, corporate prediction markets, enterprise prediction markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), internal prediction markets, opinions, predicting, prediction markets, Predictions, private prediction markets, public prediction markets | 6 Comments

TOTAL DESTRUCTION

Posted on May 5, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Paul Hewitt asses a research paper by the Iowa Electronic Markets scholars… and what’s left is just a little stack of ashes.

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged Consensus, corporate prediction markets, enterprise prediction markets, internal prediction markets, opinions, prediction markets, private prediction markets, public prediction markets | 11 Comments

Some enterprise prediction markets work very well… —some others are just a waste of time.

Posted on March 11, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Jed Christiansen: [...] When it comes to the first point, forecasting something that the company already forecasts, prediction markets may or may not be an excellent solution. Iâ€™ve seen one set of markets that absolutely blew away the accuracy of … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged accuracy, enterprise prediction markets, Jed Christiansen, prediction markets, public prediction markets | 2 Comments

Chris Masse is actually bullish on (enterprise and public) prediction markets.

Posted on March 10, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Just 2 short thoughts to respond to Jed Christiansen, who was kind enough to analyze my prediction market statement. Strangely, Chrisâ€™ writings on prediction markets have become quite negative in recent months. I am actually trying to be more realistic … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta) | Tagged enterprise prediction markets, public prediction markets | Leave a comment

How vendors are scuttling the field of enterprise prediction markets —and the prediction market industry, as a whole

Posted on February 27, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

The danger of vendor conferences without any editorial line: It backfires against the whole prediction markets industry —big time. I warned my readers many times against the vendor conferences organized by the San Francisco man. He is so desperate that … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Cases, Consulting | Tagged businesses, corporate prediction markets, corporations, enterprise prediction markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), internal prediction markets, prediction markets, private prediction markets, public prediction markets, The Economist | Leave a comment

The Economist: The enterprise prediction markets are flopping, big time.

Posted on February 26, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

An uncertain future – A novel way of generating forecasts has yet to take off. – by The Economist – 2009-02-26 – But although they have spread beyond early-adopting companies in the technology industry, they have still not become mainstream … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Cases, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged businesses, corporate prediction markets, corporations, enterprise prediction markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), internal prediction markets, prediction markets, private prediction markets, public prediction markets, The Economist | 1 Comment

JFK + The passing of time + The prediction markets

Posted on February 20, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

A president of the United States Of America was assassinated in Dallas, on Friday, November 22, 1963. That was the 9/11 of that era. Following the arrest (and assassination) of Lee Harvey Oswald, a number of people advocated his innocence … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), History | Tagged enterprise prediction markets, JFK, JFK assassination, John F. Kennedy, prediction markets, public prediction markets, The Passing Of Time, The Truth About Prediction Markets | 6 Comments

Prediction markets didn’t “revolutionize” decision-making —and will never do. However, they are a nice condiment to the classic forecasting toolkit.

Posted on February 19, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

I have spent several hours re-reading the 2004 AEI-Brookings book, “Information Markets” (by which they mean “prediction markets”). It is a collection of un-enlightening research articles —except for the IEM article, which is outstanding, both on the factual and theoretical … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged 2008 US presidential election, accuracy, AEI-Brookings, Bob Hahn, Collective Decision Making, decision making, efficiency, enterprise prediction markets, Information Markets, Paul Tetlock, prediction markets, public prediction markets, Robert Hahn, The Truth About Prediction Markets, velocity | Leave a comment

WORLD’S MOST EXPERIENCED PREDICTION MARKET PRACTITIONER CASTS A DOUBT ON THE VALIDITY OF MSR, IN USE IN MOST PUBLIC PLAY-MONEY PREDICTION EXCHANGES AND IN MOST ENTERPRISE PREDICTION EXCHANGES.

Posted on September 14, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Exchange & Market Designs, Exchanges & Markets, Mechanism Designs, Midas Oracle Archives, Software | Tagged bet exchanges, betting exchanges, betting markets, corporate prediction markets, Emile Servan-Schreiber, enterprise prediction markets, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, internal prediction markets, market scoring rule, MSR, NewsFutures, play-money prediction markets, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, private prediction markets, public prediction markets, Robin Hanson | 2 Comments

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