Tag Archives: prediction market journalism

Betting @ BetFair remains a mediocre-quality publication —triple alas.

I have spent some time this morning browsing it, and I am sad to report that the quality of this news website is still very low. – The navigation is crappy. For instance, clicking on the BetFair logo will bring … Continue reading

Posted in Exchange & Market Management, Exchanges & Markets, Journalism, Prediction Journalism | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

The value of prediction market journalism, which doesn’t produce any scoop, is zero.

Felix Salmon (in a piece about the ROI of web publishing): As real-money prediction markets become legal in the US, there’s surely going to be a lot of money in writing about them and driving rich readers to them. Total … Continue reading

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PROVEN AND DOCUMENTED: Joe Weisenthal is drunken with his own manipulation paranoia.

Joe is going off the deep end. Market noises are now interpreted as the intergalactic battle between the pro-HCR and the anti-HCR, who are both seeking to manipulate the InTrade prediction markets. No evidence whatsoever is displayed. P.S: I am … Continue reading

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Market Trading, Prediction Journalism | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Health care reform is down to 47% at InTrade. –> Toss a coin, it will get you the same.

So much for the “insider trading” who signaled the certainty of the adoption of the new health care reform bill. Joe Weisenthal swallowed InTrade CEO’s marketing bait. More on Memeorandum. Previously: Insider trading in the InTrade prediction market on health … Continue reading

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Market Trading, Prediction Journalism | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Joe Weisenthal is now in bed with InTrade.

Business Insider cites various InTrade probabilities. Joe should mention whether there is volume on each market. Joe should cite BetFair, not InTrade, for any UK-related event. Joe should be aware of InTrade’s long history of fucking up contracts and settlements … Continue reading

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Journalism, Predictions - Forecasts | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Prediction market blogger quits InTrade.

Ben Shannon: New Year Update Posted by Jesse Livermore on Sunday, January 3, 2010 I’ve been gone for a while. There just hasn’t been that much happening on Intrade, and I’ve been focusing on neuroscience. Intrade has definitely gotten tougher … Continue reading

Posted in Business, Exchange & Market Management, Exchanges & Markets, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, Prediction Journalism | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

After losing $6,000 on Chicago, Ben Shannon gives up on prediction market blogging.

Ben Shannon: [] I’m not sure how much benefit I get from running this blog. I haven’t really made any money on Intrade since starting the blog this spring. In retrospect, at least part of my motivation for making the … Continue reading

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The anonymity of “Wiser Than The Crowd” will expire soon.

The sometimes excellent prediction market blogger “Wiser Than The Crowd” says that he will disclose his real name, soon. (An upcoming Slate article will feature him, he says.) That is a great news, as it will bring more credibility to … Continue reading

Posted in People, Prediction Journalism | Tagged , , , , , | 4 Comments

The prediction markets chalk another one up, as Susan Boyle is sent packing.

I have an ongoing disagreement with Prof Panos about how to report a set of expired prediction markets. He claims that one should report “the historic average of similar markets”. That’s important but not urgent. First thing is to report … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Journalism | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

Why reporting on *one* expired prediction market is no fun… when using the scientific approach

Panos Ipeirotis hates it when I report an individual prediction market “failure“. (“Stupidity” is how he labelled it. ) I am a fan of Panos Ipeirotis’s scientific approach on prediction markets. It is all right. However, I (obviously) won’t use … Continue reading

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