Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Predictify

Google users are digging around to get the probability of a Swine Flu pandemy.

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Interestingly, the results are very different with “swine flu predictions”. Predictify is above HubDub in both cases, you’ll notice.
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External Links: – Google Trends – Google Insights for Search
Previously: Swine Flu Prediction Markets

HubDub (in blue) vs. Predictify (in red)

Predictify’s 2008 US electoral map

Predictify’s 2008 US electoral map.
$100,000 are at stake.

Our play-money prediction exchanges should partner with non-profits.

CORRECTION: It’s Predictify who comes up with the $100k, not Rock The Vote.
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Predictify (a prediction platform, not a prediction exchange) is partnering with Rock The Vote.
As I understand it (BEWARE: the Press release is not that clear about where the money comes from), Rock The Vote (a 501c, I suppose) forks over $100.000, which Predictify [...]

Predictify gets the X Groups concept right.

#1. X Groups
Predictify is unveiling a two-way interaction between their prediction platform and the blogs out there.

FROM THE BLOGS TO PREDICTIFY: Number one, there is now a customized prediction widget that bloggers can embed in their blog posts so that their readers can vote within each blog post —without leaving the blog.
FROM PREDICTIFY TO [...]

The “crowd” needs a good collective verdict mechanism. (At Midas Oracle, we value the market mechanisms, of course.)

Why don’t prediction market people submit conference proposals for SXSW 2009?

Predictify did it. – #1 – #2
Why don’t you do it too?
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Each week, Predictify will ask a VIP to submit a question for the crowd to answer.

Excellent idea.
I told the CFTC that inputs from external, vertical experts are important.
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Predictify is about building track records of human predictors.

Robert Scoble interviews their CTO.
Video
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Predictify is not a prediction exchange. We think prediction markets are superior to polls and surveys, don’t we?
With Predictify, the mechanism delivering the collective verdict is simplistic: it’s a poll —with possibility to get down to each individual answer.
Their conversation is very interesting, nevertheless —in great part due to [...]

Predictify v Pikum v Hubdub: Who will be top at the end of May?

Would it have been better if the contract tracked the cumulative usage, as opposed to the usage on a D day (here, the last day of May)?
Or maybe the averaged (or cumulative) usage for all of May?
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