Tag Archives: Pentagon

In the last three years, America’s military and intelligence agencies have spent more than $125 million on computer models that are supposed to forecast political unrest. – [REPORT]

Posted on February 11, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Wired: Pentagon’s Prediction Software Didn’t Spot Egypt Unrest.

Posted in Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged Central Intelligence Agency, CIA, DARPA, Defense Intelligence Agency, DIA, Egypt, forecasting, forecasts, models, Pentagon, predicting, Predictions, predictive software, Software, unrests | Leave a comment

What I mean by “advanced” and “retarded”

Posted on July 7, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- An event is “advanced” when it is before the others on the timeline. – An event is “retarded” when it is after the others on the timeline. – - I use the term “advanced, primary indicator” to talk about … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Market Calls), Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Prices & Probabilities, Miscellaneous, Psychology, Science | Tagged advanced, bombing, bombs, Central Intelligence Agency, chief, event derivative markets, event derivatives, InTrade, InTrade trader, Iran, Islamic Republic of Iran, Israel, meta forecasting tools, Mossad, Pentagon, physics, prediction markets, retarded, Says Any Attack, strikes, time, U.S. military, United States, USD, war | Leave a comment

The Case for Decrimininalization of Prediction Markets

Posted on June 26, 2008 by Jay Graziani

[This article is cross-posted from Major Wager.] – A recent article in the prestigious academic journal Science (May 16, 2008, Vol 320, p. 877-8) once again makes the case for regulated prediction markets, more commonly known as “betting exchanges” to … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Industry), Exchanges & Markets, Regulations | Tagged Bear Sterns, BetFair, CFTC, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, decision-making tool, Dublin, economist, Enron, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event markets, federal law, Internet casinos, Internet Gambling Enforcement Act, internet gambling laws, InTrade, Iowa, Iraq, Jay Graziani, Justin Wolfers, laws, Major, MATCHBOOK, Middle East, National Basketball Association, NBA, oil, oil crisis, online gamblers, online prediction markets, Pennsylvania, Pentagon, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, profit-making tools, real-money prediction exchanges, real-money prediction markets, Regulations, S&P 500, sports betting, Stanford, the Science, The University of Iowa, the University of Pennsylvania, TradeSports, United States, United States Congress, Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006, Wager, Wharton School, Yale | 1 Comment

Let Prediction Markets Fight Terrorism.

Posted on June 23, 2008 by Tom W. Bell

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)’s recent request for comments about the regulation of prediction markets includes a number of specific questions. I am not sure whether I will manage to write up answers to all of them before the … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Regulations | Tagged anthropologist, Arizona, California, CFTC, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Jed Christiansen, laws, Pentagon, prediction markets, public relations problem, real-money prediction markets, Regulations, would-be terrorist | 22 Comments

Just like the armchair generals (presented on television as â€œmilitary analystsâ€) carry the Pentagon’s propaganda, are our economics professors (who need the exchange data to pursue their academic career) in fact John Delaney’s unofficial P.R. agents, hidden behind an appearance of objectivity, and whose agenda is to generate favorable news coverage for InTrade? Is the symbiotic relationship between the prediction exchanges and the economics researchers dangerous for the truth?

Posted on April 20, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, Politics | Tagged John Delaney, Pentagon, prediction markets, propaganda | Leave a comment

New Hampshire is just another “Pentagon moment” for political prediction markets

Posted on January 10, 2008 by Michael Giberson

I think all the excitement over the New Hampshire prediction market prices is creating another “Pentagon moment” for the concept. A lot of attention is being paid to prediction markets, and it looks bad, but ultimately it will turn out … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta) | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, New Hampshire, Pentagon, Policy Analysis Market, Politics, US elections, US politics | 4 Comments

Prediction markets are the best way to tap into the wisdom of crowds.

Posted on November 25, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Swarm Creativity Blog: Thursday, April 26, 2007 On Stage: Scott Cooper, MIT researcher with the Sloan School of Management, co-author of Coolhunting Peter Gloor, MIT researcher with the Sloan School of Management, co-author of Coolhunting Steve O’Keefe, moderator Listening in … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged Barack Obama, business tool, cent, co-author, co-author of Coolhunting Peter Gloor, Collective Intelligence, Coolhunting Peter Gloor, corporate librarian, electricity market, energy crisis, event derivative markets, event derivatives, general information dump, Google, high-tech, Hollywood Stock Exchange, HP, International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Microsoft, MIT, New York Times, Paul Wolfowitz, Pentagon, Peter Gloor, prediction markets, Republican candidate for President, researcher, School of Management, Scott Cooper, software delivery dates, Steve Jobs, Steve O'Keefe, Sweden, the New York Times, the University of Iowa College of Business, There, United States, USD, Warren Buffets, web chatter, wisdom of crowds | Leave a comment

Pinching Adam Siegelâ€™s noseâ€¦ AGAIN.

Posted on August 29, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Inkling Markets: What are some examples of public prediction markets? One of the first and oldest prediction markets [*] was run by the University of Iowa in 1998 [**] to predict the outcome of United States Presidential Elections. [***] In … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Industry), History | Tagged Adam, Adam Siegel, Commodities Futures Trading Commission, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Hollywood Stock Exchange, Iowa, Ireland, Koleman Strumpf, Middle East, Paul Rhode, Pentagon, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, The University of Iowa, to forecast product, United States, US DoD, Wall Street, Washington Stock Exchange | Leave a comment

Terrorism Futures = Repugnant Market?

Posted on July 13, 2007 by Michael Giberson

In discussing “Repugnant Markets” on BBC Radio, Tim Harford talks to Robin Hanson about the cancellation of the proposed Policy Analysis Market: HANSON: So on Monday morning two senators you know denounced the project and the very next morning the … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, History | Tagged advisor, Arafat, BBC Radio, life insurance, North Korea, Pentagon, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, sample web page, secretary of defense, Tim Harford | 14 Comments

Robin Hanson should have written to the New York Times’ public editor.

Posted on June 24, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

2000â€“2003 US DoD’s DARPA‘s IAO’s FutureMAPâ€“Policy Analysis Market project Here’s the New York Times news article on PAM , titled Pentagon Prepares A Futures Market On Terror Attacks. [Wrong. It was a prediction exchange on Mid-East issues. Market-generated predictions are … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, History | Tagged Bin Laden, Federal Bureau of Investigation, Pentagon, prediction markets, public editor, Robin Hanson, Securities and Exchange Commission, the New York Times, United States, US DoD, USD | Leave a comment

Tag Archives: Pentagon

Meta

Recent Posts