Tag Archives: Pentagon
The Case for Decrimininalization of Prediction Markets
[This article is cross-posted from Major Wager.]
-
A recent article in the prestigious academic journal Science (May 16, 2008, Vol 320, p. 877-8) once again makes the case for regulated prediction markets, more commonly known as “betting exchanges” to online gamblers. The authors make the case that such markets are useful in forecasting future events with [...]
Pinching Adam Siegel’s nose… AGAIN.
Inkling Markets:
What are some examples of public prediction markets?
One of the first and oldest prediction markets [*] was run by the University of Iowa in 1998 [**] to predict the outcome of United States Presidential Elections. [***] In fact, those markets have been more accurate than the most accurate polls [****] in every election the [...]
Terrorism Futures = Repugnant Market?
In discussing “Repugnant Markets” on BBC Radio, Tim Harford talks to Robin Hanson about the cancellation of the proposed Policy Analysis Market:
HANSON: So on Monday morning two senators you know denounced the project and the very next morning the Secretary of Defense announced the project was canceled. There [...]
Robin Hanson should have written to the New York Times’ public editor.
2000–2003 US DoD’s DARPA’s IAO’s FutureMAP–Policy Analysis Market project
Here’s the New York Times news article on PAM , titled Pentagon Prepares A Futures Market On Terror Attacks. [Wrong. It was a prediction exchange on Mid-East issues. Market-generated predictions are objective probabilities of future outcomes, and so most economists love prediction markets. There were indeed four [...]
Pinching Adam Siegel’s nose… gently.
Inkling Markets:
What are some examples of public prediction markets?
One of the first and oldest prediction markets [*] was run by the University of Iowa in 1998 [**] to predict the outcome of United States Presidential Elections. [***] In fact, those markets have been more accurate than the most accurate polls [****] in every election the [...]
Recent Comments