Tag Archives: Paul Hewitt

Will Paul Hewitt win the Nobel Prize of Economics next year? — [HUMOR]

Posted on August 15, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Our good friend Paul Hewitt claims that he’s discovered the Holy Grail: I am pleased to report that my alternative prediction model appears to be better than prediction markets in most respects! My model was able to match the calibration … Continue reading →

Posted in Humor | Tagged Betting, betting markets, chance, coin, event derivative markets, event derivatives, events, Humor, Paul Hewitt, prediction markets, random | 1 Comment

The Oscars 2011 & The Prediction Markets – [POST-MORTEM]

Posted on February 28, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Paul Hewitt.

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Post-Mortem | Tagged awards, bets, Betting, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Hollywood, Oscars, Oscars 2011, Paul Hewitt, prediction markets | Leave a comment

Are prediction markets useful? – [ANALYSIS]

Posted on February 24, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Paul Hewitt: Jason: I can see how you might think that of Chris, but I think it is more true that as Chris acquired more knowledge about prediction markets, he became more skeptical. I have to admit that the same … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged analysis, Betting, betting markets, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, event derivative, event derivative markets, forecasting, forecasts, Paul Hewitt, predicting, prediction markets, Predictions, wisdom of crowds | 3 Comments

Prediction markets are unable to accurately predict long-term outcomes, and they have poor records for accuracy and reliability, all of which are crucial for enterprise adoption.

Posted on January 12, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Paul Hewitt: – How far in advance can prediction markets make accurate predictions? – How will we know the point in time when a prediction is ‘accurate’? – Why are there wildly different predictions of the same outcome in different … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Market Efficiency), Analysis (Meta), Exchange & Market Designs, Exchange Liquidity, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged accuracy, bets, Betting, betting exchanges, betting markets, bettors, efficiency, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, information completeness, Paul Hewitt, precision, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, reliability, traders | Leave a comment

ROBIN HANSON, WE DON’T GIVE THE FIRST FIG ABOUT YOUR DEBATE WITH THAT MENCIUS MOLDBUG.

Posted on January 21, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

WE WANT YOU TO DEBATE PAUL HEWITT. CAPITO?

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets | Tagged Paul Hewitt, prediction markets, Robin Hanson | 2 Comments

Debate is raging between Robin Hanson and the futarchy critics

Posted on January 8, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

- Robin Hanson comments on Paul Hewitt’s blog. – Paul Hewitt comments on Eric Crampton’s blog. – Paul Hewitt comments on Robin Hanson’s blog. Many exchanges with Robin Hanson. Read it all. – Paul Hewitt: [...] My point is that … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Politics | Tagged betting markets, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, conditional prediction markets, decision markets, event derivative markets, futarchy, governments, Paul Hewitt, Politics, prediction markets, Robin Hanson | Leave a comment

If he had balls, Robin Hanson would debate Paul Hewitt, instead.

Posted on December 23, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Paul Hewitt: The Essential Prerequisite for Adopting Prediction Markets It is a long text, so I will post again about it, in the near future. (Happy Xmas, by the way.) ADDENDUM: Saturday, January 16, 2010: Debate between Robin Hanson and … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged Collective Forecasting, conditional prediction markets, decision markets, futarchy, Paul Hewitt, prediction markets, Robin Hanson | Leave a comment

The prediction market links that Robin Hanson does not want you to read

Posted on December 1, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

- The Future of Prediction Markets – More Public Prediction Market Failures – Corporate Prediction Market Success is Elusive

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged Collective Forecasting, Paul Hewitt, prediction markets | Leave a comment

Eric Crampton sheeshes Paul Hewitt.

Posted on November 26, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Crampton’s blog

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets | Tagged climate change, Eric Crampton, global warming, long-term prediction markets, Paul Hewitt, prediction markets | Leave a comment

The Accuracy Of Prediction Markets

Posted on June 12, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

- A Lesson in Prediction Markets from the Game of Craps – by Paul Hewitt – Why Public Prediction Markets Fail – by Paul Hewitt Both articles are required reading for Jed Christiansen and Panos Ipeirotis (alias “Prof Panos”).

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Market Efficiency), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Explainers | Tagged accuracy, betting markets, Collective Forecasting, event derivative markets, forecasting, information aggregation, Paul Hewitt, prediction markets | 24 Comments

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