Tag Archives: online prediction markets

The Case for Decrimininalization of Prediction Markets

Posted on June 26, 2008 by Jay Graziani

[This article is cross-posted from Major Wager.] – A recent article in the prestigious academic journal Science (May 16, 2008, Vol 320, p. 877-8) once again makes the case for regulated prediction markets, more commonly known as “betting exchanges” to … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Industry), Exchanges & Markets, Regulations | Tagged Bear Sterns, BetFair, CFTC, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, decision-making tool, Dublin, economist, Enron, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event markets, federal law, Internet casinos, Internet Gambling Enforcement Act, internet gambling laws, InTrade, Iowa, Iraq, Jay Graziani, Justin Wolfers, laws, Major, MATCHBOOK, Middle East, National Basketball Association, NBA, oil, oil crisis, online gamblers, online prediction markets, Pennsylvania, Pentagon, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, profit-making tools, real-money prediction exchanges, real-money prediction markets, Regulations, S&P 500, sports betting, Stanford, the Science, The University of Iowa, the University of Pennsylvania, TradeSports, United States, United States Congress, Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006, Wager, Wharton School, Yale | 1 Comment

A little lady (who was featured in the ABC 20/20 story about InTrade) claims that she speculated on the McCain and Obama prediction markets and got a R.O.I. of 1,000% in less than a year.

Posted on May 22, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

And she is out with a Press release. Via Fabian John (Financial Services Consultant) – ABC 20/20 featuring InTrade – (May 9, 2008) Foretelling The Future: Online Prediction Markets — (4 pages in all) ABC video YouTube video -

Posted in Business, Exchanges & Markets, Money | Tagged ABC, ABC 20/20, consultant, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Fabian John, financial services, Financial Services Consultant, InTrade, online prediction markets, prediction markets, speculation, winnings, YouTube | Leave a comment

ABC 20/20 — A good (but servile) explainer on the wisdom of crowds and the prediction markets

Posted on May 16, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

ABC 20/20 featuring InTrade – (May 9, 2008) Foretelling The Future: Online Prediction Markets — (4 pages in all) ABC video YouTube video – Not a single word about InTrade-TradeSports fucking up its traders during the North Korea Missile episode. … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Explainers, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged ABC, ABC 20/20, analyst, betting markets, Collective Intelligence, Emile Servan-Schreiber, Eric Zitzewitz, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event futures markets, InTrade, James Surowiecki, John Delaney, Justin Wolfers, online prediction markets, prediction exchange, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, The Wisdom Of Crowds, ultimate leader, wisdom of crowds, YouTube | 1 Comment

Prediction Market Journalism

Posted on March 1, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Credit: Scientific American magazine – Abstract Via Mat Fogarty of Xpree (an innovative firm providing software for enterprise prediction markets) Ask me by e-mail to get a copy of the PDF file. – The problem with the bold statement in … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Prediction Journalism | Tagged business professor, Chapel Hill, Charles Evans Hughes, Dublin, event derivative markets, event derivatives, InTrade.com, Journalism, Justin Wolfers, Las Vegas, New York, North Carolina, online prediction markets, Paul Rhode, Pennsylvania, prediction market journalism, prediction markets, professor of economic history, Scientific American, secondary forecasting tools, The New York Herald Tribune, the New York Times, the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, The Wall Street Journal, United States, University of North Carolina, USD, Wall Street Journal, Woodrow Wilson, Xpree | 6 Comments

Both the uninformed, idiotic money and the intelligent money were clueless as to yesterday’s New Hampshire primary.

Posted on January 9, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Alan Boyle, back in October 2006, citing Justin Wolfers: [...] To be sure, the outlook could change as quickly as the stock market does – but Wolfers’ point is that online prediction markets can come closer to the mark than … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets | Tagged Alan Boyle, fair journalist, Hollywood Stock Exchange, Justin Wolfers, New Hampshire, online prediction markets, prediction markets, traders | Leave a comment

Prediction Market History + Prediction Market Journalism

Posted on November 4, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

The New York Times: [...] Long before political prediction markets sprouted on the Internet, election bets â€” whether the stakes were money or embarrassing public spectacles â€” were a ubiquitous part of the American political scene. The practice, which began … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Exchanges & Markets, History, Prediction Journalism | Tagged bet exchanges, betting exchanges, business professor, Chapel Hill, Charles Evans Hughes, Dublin, event derivative markets, event derivatives, History, InTrade.com, Justin Wolfers, Las Vegas, New York, news media, North Carolina, online prediction markets, Paul Rhode, Pennsylvania, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, professor of economic history, The New York Herald Tribune, the New York Times, the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, United States, University of North Carolina, USA, USD, Wall Street, Woodrow Wilson | 1 Comment