Tag Archives: odds

Prediction markets are indeed worth studying seriously not only because they are complex and interesting mechanisms for information aggregation, but also because the simplicity of the contracts traded can allow strong inferences to be made about the behavior of market participants. — [ANALYSIS]

Posted on March 14, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Rajiv Sethi, The Return. – From Order Books to Belief Distributions.

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Prediction market stability makes prices informative, while prediction market instability generates liquidity. — [ANALYSIS]

Posted on March 11, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Andrew Gelman finds Rajiv Sethi’s remarks interesting: Markets are impressive mechanisms for information aggregation but they’re not magic. The information has to come from somewhere, and markets are inherently always living in the phase transition between stability and instability. (It … Continue reading →

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Rajiv Sethi responds to Jason Ruspini. — [ANALYSIS]

Posted on March 9, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Rajiv Sethi: I don’t see a huge problem with what Nate did either (especially since he added the caveat that he disagreed with some of the imputed beliefs). My point was just that there a lot more interesting information in … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Economics, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

On the Interpretation of Prediction Market Data – REDUX — [ANALYSIS]

Posted on March 8, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Jason Ruspini: If you have varying account sizes, you know right away the price isn’t an evenly weighted average of beliefs, but I don’t see a huge problem with what Nate Silver wrote given his purposes. He just said they … Continue reading →

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On the Interpretation of Prediction Market Data – [ANALYSIS]

Posted on March 6, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Rajiv Sethi.

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Economics, Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments

BOOKMAKER ODDS: Next country to topple leader. – [FORECASTS]

Posted on February 16, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Paddy Power: 15/8 Yemen 9/4 Jordan 7/2 Algeria 7/2 Morocco 8/1 Bahrain 12/1 Iran 16/1 Libya 16/1 Sudan 16/1 Iraq 20/1 Saudi Arabia 20/1 Syria

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A somewhat simplistic, but nonetheless interesting, article in which the predictive quality of the BetFair market is slagged off, because it upsets their traditional form book study methods (by implication, of course, if they are right, then everybody could/should/would just follow the late money and win).

Posted on September 15, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Niall O’Connor offers you this link for free.

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Betting, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Paul Krugman Makes a Boo Boo.

Posted on March 23, 2010 by Paul Hewitt

In Paul Krugman’s blog entry, Done, at 4:39pm (EDT) on March 21, 2010, he commented: “OK, nothing is sure in this world. Intrade is still giving Obamacare a 2.2% chance of failing, …” He was talking about the InTrade market … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Market Transaction Costs, Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

Joe Weisenthal is now in bed with InTrade.

Posted on March 4, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Business Insider cites various InTrade probabilities. Joe should mention whether there is volume on each market. Joe should cite BetFair, not InTrade, for any UK-related event. Joe should be aware of InTrade’s long history of fucking up contracts and settlements … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Journalism, Predictions - Forecasts | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Smarkets better than BetFair and InTrade

Posted on February 21, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Smarkets now allows you to set your own odds in the format of your choice — percentages, fractions, decimals, or American odds. External Link: Smarkets

Posted in Exchange & Market Designs, Exchanges & Markets, Inventions & Innovations, Software | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment