Tag Archives: odds
Joe Weisenthal is now in bed with InTrade.
Business Insider cites various InTrade probabilities.
Joe should mention whether there is volume on each market.
Joe should cite BetFair, not InTrade, for any UK-related event.
Joe should be aware of InTrade’s long history of fucking up contracts and settlements on non-sporting events. (Type “North Korea missile InTrade” in Google, and review the various InTrade forums for traces [...]
Smarkets better than BetFair and InTrade
Smarkets now allows you to set your own odds in the format of your choice — percentages, fractions, decimals, or American odds.
External Link: Smarkets
How Business Insider got it wrong with the Tiger Woods divorce cost odds
PaddyPower is a bookmaker, not a prediction exchange. Hence, the Tiger Woods divorce cost odds are computed by an analyst, not by the market.
1. It is not the “punters” who have fabricated the odds, but a PaddyPower employee.
2. It is not a set of “market odds”, but a set of bookmaker odds.
3. The bookmaker analyst [...]
Book Of Odds
http://bookofodds.com/
Via David Pennock and Andrew Gelman
BetFair are impermeable to the prediction market approach.
BetFair seem to be stuck with the betting approach, as far as I can see. The prediction market approach would require that you present to the public (as opposed to the small population of bettors) the probabilities expressed in percentage. (Odds can be added, of course.) Instead, BetFair insist on decimal odds only (with, sometimes, [...]
Over the airwaves, Australian reporters (employed by a media company sponsored by BetFair Australia) cited the BetFair odds about a cricket match.
… and what followed is unchained fury of cataclysmic proportions.
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Nobel Prize in Economics: the Harvard betting pool didn’t have Paul Krugman under the radar.
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See SophisPundit about what to think of Paul Krugman being given the Nobel Prize in Economics.
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Why the BetFair model is partially obsolete
I like BetFair and the BetFair people very much. I was the only blogger to talk up the BetFair starting price system and the BetFair brand-new bet-matching logic. But the other face of the coin is that 2 aspects of their model are rotten to the core.
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BetFair was created in 1999 and started off in [...]
VP conditional probabilities
BetFair is running markets on both who will be the next vice president and who will be nominated by the two parties.
As we’ve discussed before in other contexts, one can divide two probabilities like these to obtain a conditional probability: e.g., if the Democrats put X on the ticket, they will win the general [...]
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