Tag Archives: ObamaCare

The sudden dip in March 16′s InTrade ObamaCare prediction market was an intentional coup.

Posted on March 25, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Here’s the latest discussion.

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Market Trading | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Allegedly, an idiot pressed the wrong button on March 16′s InTrade ObamaCare prediction market. Do you buy it?

Posted on March 24, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Marcus Shea: Here’s the most likely scenario as to what happened here: Somebody had a decent short position. Say they had about 65 shares (the volume bars indicate that this was likely a < 100 share transaction, ie, < $5 … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Market Trading | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | 10 Comments

InTrade prediction markets “got health care wrong”… — dixit Daniel Gross of Slate, a site I will no longer read.

Posted on March 23, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Slate’s Daniel Gross: Don’t Short Obama Why political futures markets got the health care bill so wrong. By Daniel Gross Posted Monday, March 22, 2010, at 6:05 PM ET It would be very difficult to tote up all the times … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Post-Mortem | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

The Real Arithmetic Of The Health Care Reform

Posted on March 21, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

The Real Arithmetic Of The Health Care Reform – NYT – by a former CBO director. Required reading for Paul Hewitt. – - ADDENDUM More info on health care reform on Memeorandum, Politico and Slate.

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics, Predictions - Forecasts | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments

“In 1965, Congress said Medicare would cost $9 billion by 1990. In reality, it cost $67 billion –seven times more than the prediction.”

Posted on March 20, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Ron Paul – - ADDENDUM More info on health care reform on Memeorandum, Politico and Slate.

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 8 Comments

Nate Silver: InTrade probability on ObamaCare is quite right.

Posted on March 19, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Nate Silver: I’m not sure if you should particularly care about the little 5 or 10 point hedges (usually to the pessimistic side) that I’ve periodically been recommending around the Intrade contract on the chances of reform passing. Even if … Continue reading →

Posted in Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics, Predictions - Forecasts | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments

When the ObamaCare event derivative reaches 80%, I will officially declare America as a socialist country —just like France and Sweden.

Posted on March 18, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

ADDENDUM More info on health care reform on Memeorandum, Politico and Slate.

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics, Predictions - Forecasts | Tagged , , , , , | 2 Comments

What has been the best InTrade prediction market ever? Has the ObamaCare prediction market at InTrade been “ahead of the commentary”?

Posted on March 16, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Jason Ruspini (who feels that the health care reform proposal might well be adopted) wanna feedback from you, folks. Which InTrade prediction market(s) has/have been ahead of the Press (rather than the other way around)? What is/are the best (most … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Predictions - Forecasts | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments