“-Collective intelligence for senior leadership”-…- —- the word in bold tells us a lot.
Emile Servan-Schreiber is doing a great job of putting prediction markets on the French media scene. (As I type this, he is on French TV.)
2 green-foot French economists (David Thesmar and Augustin Landier) are hyping the prediction markets in the French media, using a non-scientific language (“-predictive markets”-, “-stocks”- *) and few references to hard facts. Their background is not stellar. They penned an Op-Ed in July 2007, titled, “-The mega-crash won’-t happen”- [PDF file].
Of course, one year later, the developed world experienced (and is still experiencing) the worst financial crisis ever. What’-s funny is that, in 2007, our 2 economists-in-chief were hyping the non-regulated credit derivatives that sent us into the depression, and denying the possibility of systemic risk. What a bunch of incompetents.
Emile, please recruit more serious people.
[*] The good vocabulary is “-prediction markets”-, and “-traded bets”- or “-event derivatives”-.
http://predipol.newsfutures.com/ —- play-money
And Today’-s Le Figaro features prediction markets, Emile tells me…-
«Du coup, assure Emile Servan-Schreiber, on ne lit plus les articles de la meme maniere, un peu comme un analyste financier qui traque l’-info pour ensuite s’-en servir dans ses recommandations d’-investissement.»
That is from our good friend Emile Servan-Schreiber of NewsFutures, who is participating in the discussion on the LinkedIn group on prediction markets.
Go read his comment.
It appears on the 3rd page —-where nobody will find them.
The eLab eXchange is up and running again with new markets and more to come on a regular basis!
Spring is the traditional home buying season and many real estate professionals are predicting a significant “-spring bounce.”- Will it happen? Try your hand at predicting the rise (or fall) in web traffic to 5 popular real estate search sites.
If you haven’t visited us lately, come back and see what we’ve got for you to judge: http://elabexchange.com.
Judge right and you can win $25 and have a chance to win the quarterly mega-prize.
Hope to see you soon,
Lawrence D. Wright, Ph.D.
Research Associate, UCR eLab eXchange
NewsFutures + Science &- Vie (a science magazine published in the F country)
In French, alas, but I am sure Emile would lend the same technology to some English-speaking magazines in the U.S. or the U.K. that would want to open the same kind of prediction exchange for science.
Saw this this morning (Monday, March 30, 2009) on LinkedIn…- about NewsFutures, which was founded in 2000 (that was 9 years ago if I can count) by Emile Servan-Schreiber (CEO) and Maurice Balick (CTO):
As they say, it is never too late to arise!…-
Mr. Kristof, if you want to keep yourself accountable and track the success of your predictions in the long run and in real-time, why not simply participate in a prediction market such as NewsFutures?
You could suggest that particular stocks be listed in relation to particular new stories and their possible outcomes. Then, as you invest in particular outcomes, your prediction portfolio would either grow or shrink, providing us all with an objective measure of your foresight. You could feature on your blog a widget displaying in real-time the “-net worth”- of your various predictions.
Other advantages of this approach would include:
- Forcing a detailed specification of possible outcomes-
- Having you compete directly (bet against) the general public-
- Measuring how much your columns can influence price movements for various predictions-
- Leading by example to show other pundits how it’-s done.
There are various types of prediction markets out there, so you can pick the venue where you’-d feel most comfortable:
- Play-money only, like NewsFutures- [or HubDub ]
- Real betting (illegal) like Intrade-
- Charity-driven, like Bet2give.
If the idea intrigues you, please contact me at email@example.com and we can get you started right away!
Readers, do click on the link (which will bring you to the New York Times), and do click on “-Recommended”- under Emile’-s comment —-so that his pitch for the prediction markets will be more visible to all the people reading the comments there. Thanks. Appreciated.