Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: NewsFutures

In France, prediction markets are hyped by 2 bozo economists —David Thesmar and Augustin Landier.

Written by Chris F. Masse on March 8, 2010 — Leave a Comment

Emile Servan-Schreiber is doing a great job of putting prediction markets on the French media scene. (As I type this, he is on French TV.)
2 green-foot French economists (David Thesmar and Augustin Landier) are hyping the prediction markets in the French media, using a non-scientific language (“predictive markets”, “stocks” *) and few references to hard [...]

Posted in Economics, Exchanges & Markets, Finance, History, The Global Economy | Also tagged , , , , , , ,

New NewsFutures prediction exchange in France

Written by Chris F. Masse on January 28, 2010 — Leave a Comment

http://predipol.newsfutures.com/ — play-money
And Today’s Le Figaro features prediction markets, Emile tells me…
«Du coup, assure Émile Servan-Schreiber, on ne lit plus les articles de la même manière, un peu comme un analyste financier qui traque l’info pour ensuite s’en servir dans ses recommandations d’investissement.»

Posted in Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets | Also tagged , , , , ,

Environmental Futures

Written by Chris F. Masse on November 25, 2009 — Leave a Comment

Environmental Futures – by Emile Servan-Schreiber of NewsFutures

Posted in Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets | Also tagged , , , , ,

A new play-money betting operator opens in France — but NewsFutures remains the best.

Written by Chris F. Masse on November 17, 2009 — Leave a Comment

Best wishes to “PariActu” (operated by “Betting On News”). It is a play-money betting pool for French news.
As noted by Marianne, NewsFutures remains the pioneer — and has our preference because it is bilingual and truly powered by a prediction market engine.
Previously: French TV anchor will launch a collective forecasting website.

Posted in Betting, Exchanges & Markets | Also tagged , , , , , ,

Our platform offers a true double-auction trading engine, not a scoring-rule disguised as a market.

Written by Chris F. Masse on November 13, 2009 — Leave a Comment

That is from our good friend Emile Servan-Schreiber of NewsFutures, who is participating in the discussion on the LinkedIn group on prediction markets.
Go read his comment.
Also look at the 2 other threads.

Posted in Consulting, Software | Also tagged ,

Deep Throat’s take of Emile’s take of the SAVE AWARD program

Written by Guest Author on September 24, 2009 — 2 Comments

Emile’s idea is a half-beauty contest, but if Emile thinks the OMB officials have expertise that won’t be swayed by the crowd, then the original SAVE AWARD process was half-good as well.
The officials would be able to count the number of similar suggestions and in that way they would approximate aggregation. It’s just not as [...]

Posted in Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds | Also tagged , , , , ,

Can a Keynesian beauty contest improve Pres. Obama’s suggestion box for U.S government employees?

Written by Michael Giberson on September 24, 2009 — 18 Comments

President Barack Obama has created the “SAVE Award,” a process by which U.S. government employees can submit ideas for “how their agency can save money and perform better.” A committee of senior officials from the Office of Management and Budget at the White House will review the submissions and submit a short list to the [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Politics | Also tagged , , , , ,

Barack Obama and the wisdom of the Federal crowd

Written by Chris F. Masse on September 23, 2009 — Leave a Comment

“There is no aggregation of the collective wisdom. The crowd is called on only to submit ideas, not to help evaluate them, which is the critical step in the delicate wisdom of crowd recipe.”

Posted in Collective Decision Making, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Politics | Also tagged , , , , ,

French TV anchor will launch a collective forecasting website.

Written by Chris F. Masse on August 26, 2009 — Leave a Comment

Patrick Poivre D’Arvor (alias “PPDA”) is said to be planning a social prediction website. Will it be powered by a prediction market technology, or else? Mystery wrapped in a riddle inside an enigma.

UPDATE: A new play-money betting operator opens in France — but NewsFutures remains the best.

Posted in Collective Forecasting | Also tagged , , , , , , , , ,

Google Caffeine upgrades NewsFutures, downgrades the Iowa Electronic Markets.

Written by Chris F. Masse on August 12, 2009 — Leave a Comment

Google Search versus Google Caffeine for “prediction markets”
P.S.: For those who don’t follow Midas Oracle on a daily basis (how dare), Google Caffeine is the future Google Search.
UPDATE: The Inkling Markets website goes on page 2, on Caffeine. Good.
UPDATE: Google Caffeine is off for a few hours.

Posted in Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, Search Engine Optimization | Also tagged , , , , , ,
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