Tag Archives: National Basketball Association
Hubdub Hot Predictions This Week
Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week – and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.
World
The complete tragedy of Air France Flight 447 may never be known, but [...]
Hubdub Hot Predictions This Week
Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week – and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.
Politics
Undoubtedly the biggest news coming out of Washington last week was the retirement [...]
The Case for Decrimininalization of Prediction Markets
[This article is cross-posted from Major Wager.]
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A recent article in the prestigious academic journal Science (May 16, 2008, Vol 320, p. 877-8) once again makes the case for regulated prediction markets, more commonly known as “betting exchanges” to online gamblers. The authors make the case that such markets are useful in forecasting future events with [...]
Linear Programming – Combined Value Trading – Parimutuel Call Market – Combinatorial Call Markets
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David Pennock:
[...] Each order is associated with a decision variable x that ranges between 0 and 1, encoding the fraction of the order that the auctioneer can accept. There is one constraint per outcome that ensures that the auctioneer never loses money across all outcomes. The choice of objective function depends on the auctioneer’s goals, [...]
TRADESPORTS STOLE MY MONEY, claims trader Todd.
TradeSports’s side of the story, in my words:
Todd’s trades on NHL games was reversed by TradeSports under Contract Rule 1.2 (“unrepresentative price”).
_NHL.CAL@SJS.OVER5.5_ (mailto:NHL.CAL@SJS.OVER5.5)
Sold 40 contracts at a price of 38.0 at: 05:32:27 AM GMT 01/04/08
Pre-game orders failed to cancel and were later filled at unrepresentative prices.
All pre-game market maker orders that were matched in-game [...]
Is Steve Roman the Planet Earth’s best psychic of all times –past, present and future?
Steve Roman:
Why Hedgestreet Will Fail
They lead the prediction market field in generation of press releases, but their volumes and fees are abysmal. They are in an imaginary niche. The big boys play at the CME. The little guys want somewhere to bang out a few day trades on the Dow and then bet the NBA [...]
Justin Wolfers’ motivation is to improve our understanding of the world.
“DJ” (a university professor) from the collective blog, The Wages Of Wins:
[Y]ou need to understand the nature of academic research. As professors of economics we have a tremendous amount of freedom. We are asked to do research, but choice of topic is up to us (the only requirement is that what we study has to [...]
Has Justin Wolfers responded elsewhere to Rick Borghesi’s argument?
Rick Borghesi, in August 2007:
[...] I take the position (PDF) that, while point shaving in amateur sports may be somewhat more common than previously believed, the suspicious statistical trend that he identifies (heavy favorites win yet fail to cover the spread more often than expected) is unlikely to arise primarily from widespread corruption.
I base my [...]
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