Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Mike Giberson

Earlier this year, a panel of right-wing “experts” produced a report urging the committee to remove biographies of George Washington, Abraham Lincoln, Stephen F. Austin, and César Chávez, and instead add history about the “motivational role the Bible and the Christian faith played in the settling of the original colonies.”

Our good friend Mike Giberson has landed in a state governed by crazy lunatics.

Become Mike Giberson’s friend on FaceBook

Michael Giberson @ FaceBook

If you go to Mike’s wall, you will see that I broke the FaceBook etiquette. I can’t be stopped.

Prediction markets are about lowering transaction costs. That’s how sports come in.

I found John Blank’s letter to the CFTC (discovered by Mike Giberson) as interesting as Vernon Smith’s one.
Here’s the PDF file —in case you missed it.
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I would like to focus on John Blank’s 3-point introduction. In short, he describes a modern world where both the derivative exchanges and the CFTC have to adapt to an [...]

The term “event markets” sucks —and the uncritical thinkers using this crappy term suck too.

Google: “event markets” — Funny enough, the first link is to the Futures Industry Association, which promoted the term… and the second to CFM, which advises not to use that term (see the bottom of the CFM frontpage).
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Just because 2 or 3 bureaucrats at the CFTC have decided to use that term does [...]

Right-click on Mike Linksvayer’s mugshot to open, in another browser tab, the discussion thread on baseball decision-aid markets, with Mike Giberson, and an elliptic comment from Robin Hanson.

Are you a MSR addict like Mike Giberson? Have nothing to do this week-end? Wanna trade on a play-money prediction exchange instead of watching cable TV? Wanna win an i-Phone?

Then Media Predict is for you.
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Polls Vs. Prediction Markets

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Asia Times:
[...] Outperforming Taiwan’s polls shouldn’t be hard. They’re notoriously bad as a forecast of election outcomes. In late 2006, for example, many media polls underrated the pro-independence party’s support – a recurring problem. Taiwan’s prediction markets did a much better job of estimating vote shares (the island’s two markets both called the Kaohsiung mayoral [...]

Wrongly Crafted Headlines Of The Day

Exchange bets favor Obama for Democratic nomination.
Punters more accurate than polls, says study.
The journalos emphasize the bets and the punters. I would highlight the markets and the exchanges, rather. We should point to the information aggregation mechanism.
Mike Giberson, please do agree with me.

The Gravatars are back in the Midas Oracle comments.

They were shortly off due to a software bug, which is resolved now, thanks to Ronald Heft.
So, now we can appreciate Mike Giberson’s new face picture —his old one, published on his website (and now pulled down), made him look a Dracula sucking young boys’ blood.

Clean. Rested. Shaved. Good. But… –> The next [...]

Linear Programming – Combined Value Trading – Parimutuel Call Market – Combinatorial Call Markets

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David Pennock:
[...] Each order is associated with a decision variable x that ranges between 0 and 1, encoding the fraction of the order that the auctioneer can accept. There is one constraint per outcome that ensures that the auctioneer never loses money across all outcomes. The choice of objective function depends on the auctioneer’s goals, [...]

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