Tag Archives: manipulations

To get news on the E-cat, come here on Midas Oracle. To get news on CFTC rulings, go to Knowledge Problem. — [IRONY]

Posted on May 30, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

It should be the other way around, but those are not normal times.

Posted in Finance, Financial Markets, Regulations | Tagged CFTC, derivatives, futures, manipulation, manipulations, oil derivatives, oil futures, oil market manipulators | Leave a comment

Prof Michael Giberson still into prediction market manipulation

Posted on June 15, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

I am personally fed up with this theme, but our good friend Mike Giberson has some inklings. See also Paul Hewitt’s comment.

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets | Tagged betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, manipulations, prediction market manipulation, prediction markets, trading | 1 Comment

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission will have authority to decide what derivatives must be centrally cleared rather than letting private parties make the call.

Posted on December 2, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

“Central clearing interposes a regulated clearinghouse between the original counterparties in a derivatives transaction and so creates an opportunity to make dealing more transparent.” CNBC video

Posted in Finance, Financial Markets, Regulations | Tagged abuses, CFTC, clearinghouse, clearinghouses, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, derivative clearinghouse, derivative clearinghouses, derivatives, Finance, Financial Markets, financial reforms, frauds, laws, manipulations, Regulations, risks, SEC, Securities and Exchange Commission, systemic risks, Timothy Geithner, US Congress, US financial markets, US government, US Treasury | Leave a comment

Feedback trading in prediction markets

Posted on December 1, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Robin Hanson is schooled about prediction market trading. Our guest author to our Master Of All Universes: Feedback trading just means the kind of momentum trading that is pervasive in traditional assets, again, less so in prediction markets. In the … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Trading | Tagged even derivatives, Event Derivative Trading, feedback trading, manipulation, manipulations, prediction market trading, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, trading | 1 Comment

The Robin Hanson manipulation papers make unrealistic assumptions, but it’s not like prediction markets are a bad idea…!!…

Posted on November 30, 2009 by Guest Author

In terms of unrealistic assumptions in Robin Hanson’s series of papers on manipulation, the major ones have been out there since at least 2004. Despite some limited evidence, the insistence on traders needing to know the direction of manipulation isn’t … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Exchange & Market Designs, Exchange Liquidity, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged Collective Forecasting, error, long-term markets, long-term prediction markets, manipulation, manipulations, market manipulation, market manipulations, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, self-fulfilling prophecy | 2 Comments

Paul Hewitt doubts.

Posted on November 27, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Paul Hewitt: Finally, we need to know if this was only possible, because it was a fairly simple experimental model. Will the same decision-makerâ€™s ability exist in extremely complex public policy markets?

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged Collective Forecasting, manipulation, manipulations, manipulators, prediction markets | 1 Comment

Could think tanks impact the socially valuable prediction markets?

Posted on November 25, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

- Matt Yglasias on the possibility of manipulations. – Robin Hanson rebuts scientifically.

Posted in Analysis (Market Proposals), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged big donors, big money, manipulation, manipulations, prediction markets, think tanks | 2 Comments

BetFair – Live Chat Session – Tuesday, January 27th, 2009

Posted on January 31, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

BetFair – Live Chat Session – Tuesday, January 27th, 2009 – [This link is only available to the BetFair registered users, alas. In the future, BetFair should make the transcripts of all chat sessions available to the public at large, … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Betting, Ethics, Exchange & Market Management, Exchanges & Markets, Explainers, Market Makers (Human), Market Transaction Costs, Regulations | Tagged BetFair, BetFair Chat, BetFair Forum, BetFair Premium Charge, Betting, betting exchanges, betting markets, bookmakers, corruptions, Gambling Commission, horseracing, laws, Live Chat Sessions, manipulations, Mark Davies, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, Premium Charge, Regulations, sportsbooks, Tony Clare, trading | 1 Comment

Freakonomics is the latest in a long series of (usually, serious) bloggers who have misinformed the public by stating that the institutional investor is manipulating the US political election prediction markets.

Posted on October 20, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

The anonymous blogger (probably the editor, Annika Mengisen) titles the post, “A New Kind of Campaign Advertising?”, and asks: Will market manipulation for political candidates become the norm as ever-wealthier campaigns try to control the news cycle? No…!!!… John Delaney … Continue reading →

Posted in Ethics, Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Hedging & Insurance, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Journalism | Tagged betting markets, event derivative markets, Finance, Freakonomics, Hedging, InTrade, John Delaney, manipulations, market manipulations, New York Times, political hedging, political prediction markets, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets, risk hedging, US elections, US politics | Leave a comment

The New York Times on InTrade’s US political election prediction markets

Posted on October 20, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

The NYT writers discusses 2 (different?) issues. – #1. There was market arbitrage opportunies in the recent past between InTrade and BetFair —unlike 4 years ago, and contrary to the laws of economics. – The price of the Barack Obama … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Market Trading | Tagged 2008 US presidential elections, arbitrage, Barack Obama, BetFair, betting exchanges, betting markets, bookmakers, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, Hedging, InTrade, Iowa Electronic Markets, John McCain, manipulations, market arbitrage, market manipulations, political hedging, political prediction markets, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets, risk hedging, US elections | 1 Comment

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