Tag Archives: Hillary Clinton

New Hampshire prediction markets screwed up political forecasting in 2008. Will they be right this time? — [CHARTS]

Posted on January 10, 2012 by Chris F. Masse

The political prediction markets got the Democratic race wrong in New Hampshire, last time. More here. – New Hampshire – The Democrats – The Hillary Clinton event derivative was expired to 100. – New Hampshire – The Republicans – The … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Flawed New Hampshire polls = Non-accurate New Hampshire prediction markets

Posted on April 28, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

The most comprehensive analysis ever conducted of presidential primary polls: “a handful of methodological missteps and miscalculations combined to undermine the accuracy of predictions about presidential primary winners in New Hampshire and three other states.” Via Mister the Great Research … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Nate Silver of FiveThirtYeight.com on “The Interview Show” —recorded November 5th, 2008

Posted on April 17, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com on “The Interview Show,” recorded November 5th, 2008: – - Nate Silver on November 3rd, 2008: – Nate Silver on August 21, 2008: -

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As Justin Wolfers noted, maybe there are today bigger practical obstacles to prediction market arbitrage.

Posted on September 26, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- Legal restrictions for US traders on foreign prediction exchanges (BetFair, etc.); – Transaction fees (you would need to operate on 2 exchanges); – Currency risks and cost for hedging on that. Eric Crampton (a Canadian exiled in New Zealand) … Continue reading →

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Is InTrade being manipulated? Why does InTrade give a discounted probability for Barack Obama as US president?

Posted on September 25, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

A quick link panorama. – #1. Is InTrade being manipulated? – Nate Silver shows that there are abrupt downward pressures on the Barack Obama event derivative, while we also see some abrupt upward pressures on the Hillary Clinton event derivative. … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Market Trading | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments

Intrade 2008.PRES.McCAIN > PRESIDENT.REP2008

Posted on September 11, 2008 by Mike Linksvayer

How frequent are arbitrage opportunities such as the following? In addition to title, the reverse is true of OBAMA/DEM. Do traders really think there’s some probability of McCain being elected as an idependent and Obama being replaced as the Democrat … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 6 Comments

Inexperienced Illinois senator (and presumptive Democratic nominee) Barack Obama should pick Kansas governor Kathleen Sebelius as vice president candidate to bring executive experience to the Democratic ticket —and to piss off Hillary Clinton (which will delight me).

Posted on August 20, 2008 by Chris F. Masse
Posted in Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

In black, the comment made by the ubber president of the Pennock fan club. But I want Jason Ruspini to dissent in the comment area with another argument.

Posted on July 18, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- UPDATE: He took the bait… -

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I told you that vice presidential search committees and VP prediction markets are complete bullshit, didn’t I?

Posted on July 15, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

The McLaughlin Group of mid-June (yes, I know, that’s last month): MS. BERNARD: Well, here’s what I think. I think the dirty little secret is Barack Obama probably already knows who he’s going to select to be his vice presidential … Continue reading →

Posted in Leading & Lagging Indicators, Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments

We interrupt this bulletin devoted to the upcoming CFTC ruling to inform you that we are afraid that your “Jim Webb becomes VP” event derivative is now totally worthless —unless you’re a short seller (a.k.a. a layer).

Posted on July 7, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

WEBB DOESN’T WANT TO BE VP. – - InTrade – Democratic Vice President Nominee – Republican Vice President Nominee – BetFair – Next Vice President: – Democratic Ticket – Democratic Vice President Nominee – Republican Vice President Nominee – NewsFutures … Continue reading →

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