Tag Archives: Hillary Clinton
Flawed New Hampshire polls = Non-accurate New Hampshire prediction markets
The most comprehensive analysis ever conducted of presidential primary polls:
“a handful of methodological missteps and miscalculations combined to undermine the accuracy of predictions about presidential primary winners in New Hampshire and three other states.”
Via Mister the Great Research Scientist David Pennock –who is an indispensable element of the field of prediction markets.
As I blogged many [...]
Nate Silver of FiveThirtYeight.com on “The Interview Show” —recorded November 5th, 2008
Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com on “The Interview Show,” recorded November 5th, 2008:
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Nate Silver on November 3rd, 2008:
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Nate Silver on August 21, 2008:
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As Justin Wolfers noted, maybe there are today bigger practical obstacles to prediction market arbitrage.
- Legal restrictions for US traders on foreign prediction exchanges (BetFair, etc.);
- Transaction fees (you would need to operate on 2 exchanges);
- Currency risks and cost for hedging on that.
Eric Crampton (a Canadian exiled in New Zealand) says he has managed to turn a buck, though, by arbitraging between InTrade and iPredict New Zealand. He [...]
Is InTrade being manipulated? Why does InTrade give a discounted probability for Barack Obama as US president?
A quick link panorama.
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#1. Is InTrade being manipulated?
- Nate Silver shows that there are abrupt downward pressures on the Barack Obama event derivative, while we also see some abrupt upward pressures on the Hillary Clinton event derivative.
However, you can see by yourself that InTrade is resilient enough and does a great job of going back [...]
Intrade 2008.PRES.McCAIN > PRESIDENT.REP2008
How frequent are arbitrage opportunities such as the following?
In addition to title, the reverse is true of OBAMA/DEM.
Do traders really think there’s some probability of McCain being elected as an idependent and Obama being replaced as the Democrat nominee?
Inexperienced Illinois senator (and presumptive Democratic nominee) Barack Obama should pick Kansas governor Kathleen Sebelius as vice president candidate to bring executive experience to the Democratic ticket —and to piss off Hillary Clinton (which will delight me).
In black, the comment made by the ubber president of the Pennock fan club. But I want Jason Ruspini to dissent in the comment area with another argument.
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UPDATE: He took the bait…
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I told you that vice presidential search committees and VP prediction markets are complete bullshit, didn’t I?
The McLaughlin Group of mid-June (yes, I know, that’s last month):
MS. BERNARD: Well, here’s what I think. I think the dirty little secret is Barack Obama probably already knows who he’s going to select to be his vice presidential running mate. You put out the search committee, probably because Hillary Clinton was all over his [...]
We interrupt this bulletin devoted to the upcoming CFTC ruling to inform you that we are afraid that your “Jim Webb becomes VP” event derivative is now totally worthless —unless you’re a short seller (a.k.a. a layer).
WEBB DOESN’T WANT TO BE VP.
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InTrade
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Democratic Vice President Nominee
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Republican Vice President Nominee
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BetFair
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Next Vice President:
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Democratic Ticket
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Democratic Vice President Nominee
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Republican Vice President Nominee
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NewsFutures
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Barack Obama will pick a woman as running mate.
© NewsFutures
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Explainer On Prediction Markets
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Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by [...]
The New Republic profiles the next Vice President of the United States of America —Jim Webb, maybe.
Via mister Bo Cowgill
The New Republic
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Some British betting bloggers are completely out of the loop.
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UPDATE: Andrew Sullivan on Hillary Clinton’s exit statement. (He liked it.)
UPDATE: InTrade forum thread.
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InTrade
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Democratic Vice President Nominee
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Republican Vice President Nominee
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BetFair
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Next Vice President:
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Democratic Ticket
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Democratic Vice President Nominee
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Republican Vice President Nominee
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NewsFutures
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Barack Obama will [...]
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