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- Steven Krivit continues to trash Andrea Rossi and his LENR technology. — [LINK]
- Interview with Adam Lashinsky — [VIDEO]
- Why some people are more innovative — [VIDEO]
- Forbes editor deciphers Steve Jobs’s Apple. — [VIDEO]
- Jason Ruspini rebuts Eric Zitzewitz on the regulation of political prediction markets. — [COMMENT]
- Eric Zitzewitz petitions the CFTC in favor of real-money prediction markets about politics. — [TEXT]
- Global warming is a big scam. — [LINK]
- A Swarm of Nano Quadrotors — [VIDEO]
- The Tragedy of the Commons — [VIDEO]
- Guy Kawasaki on Steve Jobs — [VIDEO]
- Inside Apple — [VIDEO]
- Mitt Romney’s taxes — [LINKS]
- A critique of Apple’s multimedia iBooks. — [LINK]
- Does Apple lack “generosity”? — [LINKS]
- Apple Education Push — [LINKS]
- Water Crystals — [DOCUMENT]
- Apple’s e-book software will allow publishers to make textbooks more interactive. — [LINKS + VIDEO]
- Alain Soral is France’s most dangerous intellectual… (dangerous for the French plutocrats, that is). — [VIDEO]
- Computers thru time — [CHART]
- NASA has finally understood the theorical basis of LENR (low-energy nuclear reactions). — [VIDEO]
Tag Archives: Hillary Clinton
New Hampshire prediction markets screwed up political forecasting in 2008. Will they be right this time? — [CHARTS]
The political prediction markets got the Democratic race wrong in New Hampshire, last time. More here. – New Hampshire – The Democrats – The Hillary Clinton event derivative was expired to 100. – New Hampshire – The Republicans – The … Continue reading →
Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice)
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Tagged 2008 New Hampshire Presidential Primary, 2008 US presidential elections, accuracy, Barack Obama, betting markets, Collective Intelligence, democrats, event derivative markets, event derivatives, events, Hillary Clinton, idea futures, indicators, John McCain, New Hampshire, polls, prediction markets, US presidential elections, US primaries, wisdom of crowds
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1 Comment
Flawed New Hampshire polls = Non-accurate New Hampshire prediction markets
The most comprehensive analysis ever conducted of presidential primary polls: “a handful of methodological missteps and miscalculations combined to undermine the accuracy of predictions about presidential primary winners in New Hampshire and three other states.” Via Mister the Great Research … Continue reading →
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics
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Tagged 2008 New Hampshire Presidential Primary, 2008 US presidential elections, accuracy, Barack Obama, Collective Intelligence, democrats, Hillary Clinton, idea futures, indicators, John McCain, New Hampshire, polls, prediction markets, US presidential elections, US primaries, wisdom of crowds
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2 Comments
Nate Silver of FiveThirtYeight.com on “The Interview Show” —recorded November 5th, 2008
Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com on “The Interview Show,” recorded November 5th, 2008: – - Nate Silver on November 3rd, 2008: – Nate Silver on August 21, 2008: -
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Data), Forecasting (Science & Practice), Politics
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Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, FiveThirtYeight, fivethirtyeight.com, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Hillary Clinton, John McCain, Mark Bazer, models, Nate Silver, Politics, poll aggregation, polls, predicting, prediction markets, Predictions, The Interview Show, US elections, US politics, US primaries
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As Justin Wolfers noted, maybe there are today bigger practical obstacles to prediction market arbitrage.
- Legal restrictions for US traders on foreign prediction exchanges (BetFair, etc.); – Transaction fees (you would need to operate on 2 exchanges); – Currency risks and cost for hedging on that. Eric Crampton (a Canadian exiled in New Zealand) … Continue reading →
Posted in Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets
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Tagged arbitrage opportunities, arbitrages, Barack Obama, BetFair, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Hillary Clinton, InTrade, manipulation attempts, manipulations, market arbitrages, market manipulations, prediction markets
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Is InTrade being manipulated? Why does InTrade give a discounted probability for Barack Obama as US president?
A quick link panorama. – #1. Is InTrade being manipulated? – Nate Silver shows that there are abrupt downward pressures on the Barack Obama event derivative, while we also see some abrupt upward pressures on the Hillary Clinton event derivative. … Continue reading →
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Market Trading
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Tagged arbitrage opportunities, arbitrages, Barack Obama, BetFair, betting markets, Emile Servan-Schreiber, Eric Zitzewitz, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Freakonomics, Hillary Clinton, InTrade, Justin Wolfers, Lance Fortnow, manipulation attempts, manipulations, market arbitrages, market manipulations, Nate Silver, polls, polls versus prediction markets, Portfolio, prediction markets, state correlations, Zubin Jelveh
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5 Comments
Intrade 2008.PRES.McCAIN > PRESIDENT.REP2008
How frequent are arbitrage opportunities such as the following? In addition to title, the reverse is true of OBAMA/DEM. Do traders really think there’s some probability of McCain being elected as an idependent and Obama being replaced as the Democrat … Continue reading →
Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities
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Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, arbitrage, Barack Obama, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Hillary Clinton, InTrade, Joe Biden, John McCain, Politics, prediction market analysis, prediction markets, Sarah Palin, US elections, US politics, US presidential elections
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6 Comments
In black, the comment made by the ubber president of the Pennock fan club. But I want Jason Ruspini to dissent in the comment area with another argument.
- UPDATE: He took the bait… -
Posted in Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities
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Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Al Gore, Barack Obama, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Hillary Clinton, InTrade, Jason Ruspini, Pennock fan club, Politics, prediction markets, President, probabilities, US elections, US politics, US presidential elections
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1 Comment
I told you that vice presidential search committees and VP prediction markets are complete bullshit, didn’t I?
The McLaughlin Group of mid-June (yes, I know, that’s last month): MS. BERNARD: Well, here’s what I think. I think the dirty little secret is Barack Obama probably already knows who he’s going to select to be his vice presidential … Continue reading →
Posted in Leading & Lagging Indicators, Politics
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Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, ado, Barack Obama, BetFair, Betting, event derivative markets, event derivative parkets, event derivatives, event futures markets, Hillary Clinton, information, InTrade, John McCain, McLaughlin Group, NewsFutures, political prediction markets, Politics, prediction markets, search committee, US elections, US politics, US presidential elections, vice president, vice presidential search committees, VP, VP prediction markets
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5 Comments
We interrupt this bulletin devoted to the upcoming CFTC ruling to inform you that we are afraid that your “Jim Webb becomes VP” event derivative is now totally worthless —unless you’re a short seller (a.k.a. a layer).
WEBB DOESN’T WANT TO BE VP. – - InTrade – Democratic Vice President Nominee – Republican Vice President Nominee – BetFair – Next Vice President: – Democratic Ticket – Democratic Vice President Nominee – Republican Vice President Nominee – NewsFutures … Continue reading →
Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics
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Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, BetFair, Democratic Vice President, Hillary Clinton, InTrade, Jim Webb, meta forecasting tools, NewsFutures, Nominee, Politics, prediction markets, Republican Vice President, US elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections, US Vice President, USD, vice president, VP
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