Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Hedging

Why does the CFTC allow the Cantor Exchange and not InTrade?

Joe Weisenthal has a small opinion piece on why the CFTC allows real-money prediction markets on movie business, and bans those on politics or sports. The problem in the piece is that Joe is 100% wrong.

Joe says that there can’t be hedging in politics. Wrong. You can hedge your political ads on InTrade.
Joe says that [...]

Cantor Exchange in the New York Times

Richard Jaycobs uses the adjective “tremendous”. But here’s what the journalo says:
But buyers beware: if “Avatar” is any indication, the public isn’t always so wise about Hollywood fortunes. Most users of HSX.com predicted a flop, and if those users had placed real money on the Cantor exchange, they would have taken a serious hit.
http://www.cantorexchange.com/
http://www.hsx.com/

Rejection of the patent claims involving a method of hedging risks in commodities trading

Wikipedia:
The applicants (Bernard L. Bilski and Rand Warsaw) filed a patent application (on 10 April 1997) for a method of hedging risks in commodities trading. Such patent claims are often termed business method claims. [...] Bilski’s method claim was patent-ineligible because it did not “transform any article to a different state or thing.” [...]
It has [...]

What Does Gold Hedge Against?

“Not inflation”, the gold critics will shout, in one of their go-to arguments. This is what we hear from CNBC’s Mark Haines at every possible chance: since 1980, gold has not kept up with the CPI and so shouldn’t be used as an inflation hedge. One would point out to Mark that this is [...]

The unsavory and dangerous practice of financial firms betting against their clients needs to be thoroughly investigated.

New York Times editorial against Goldman Sachs and the other financial firms.
Humm. I agree that some practices are evil, but do the NYT know that hedging is good?

Businesses fear the proposals being considered by the European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, would cut the long menu of futures and options contracts now available, making it more expensive or even impossible for companies to hedge their risks.

“Industries are pushing back against proposed European Union rules intended to limit the risks that derivatives may pose to the financial system.”

Don’t shoot the speculators. They predict prices, not set them.

L. Gordon Crovitz in the Wall Street Journal:
More-detailed reporting on who has which kinds of positions in oil would make the market more understandable. It would show that so-called financial speculators are trying to predict price movements, but also trying to hedge risk. Likewise, commercial traders that take delivery of oil are hedging risks, while [...]

Robert Shiller: Insurance, hedging, risk management, efficiency, etc.

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Did the CFTC relax its ECPs requirement for eBOTs?

Contra Chris Masse (who blogged cockily that that would never happened), WeatherBill is now available to any weather-sensitive business, large or small. No $1m net worth required, anymore.
Developing…
Waiting for a P.R. release from them today [tomorrow, on another subject]…

American Civics Exchange = CFTC-regulated Exempt Board of Trade

American Civics Exchange is enabling what InTrade (circa 2006, when they applied for the eBOT status) couldn’t… —getting the CFTC stamp of approval, and running a real-money prediction exchange from within the US territory (as opposed to offshore). The ACE does not have any direct domestic competitor, right now, but HedgeStreet could enter the political [...]

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