Tag Archives: futures

The real reasons why prediction markets are accurate. — [LINK]

Posted on January 9, 2012 by Chris F. Masse

Emile Servan-Schreiber: – Over the long run and many predictions, markets outperform most individuals; – The more participants there are in a market, the more accurate it is (although there are diminishing returns); – The more participants there are in … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Explainers | Tagged bets, Betting, betting markets, derivatives, Emile Servan-Schreiber, event derivative markets, event derivatives, events, futures, Lumenogic, NewsFutures, prediction markets | 1 Comment

InTrade is not predictive, says notable financial journalist. — [SCREENSHOT]

Posted on January 4, 2012 by Chris F. Masse

For info, here’s the Midas Oracle feed at Twitter. I publish there plenty of prediction market news that don’t appear on this blog.

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event futures, events, forecasting, forecasts, futures, Henry Blodget, InTrade, predicting, prediction markets, Predictions | 1 Comment

Ex-HSX Max Keiser disses real-money prediction markets (again). — [VIDEO]

Posted on December 28, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Ethics, Exchanges & Markets, Regulations | Tagged America, bets, Betting, betting markets, Cantor, Cantor Fitzgerald, derivatives, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event futures, events, futures, Gambling, gaming, HSX, laws, Meet Max Keiser, prediction markets, Regulations, United States Of America | Leave a comment

Legality of real-money prediction markets in America — [LINKS]

Posted on December 27, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

#1. CFTC’s Bart Chilton says ‘no’. – #2. DOJ says ‘yes’, other than for sports and horse racing.

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Regulations | Tagged America, bets, Betting, betting markets, CFTC, derivatives, DOJ, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event futures, events, futures, Gambling, gaming, laws, prediction markets, Regulations, United States Of America, US CFTC, US DOJ | 1 Comment

Gerald Celente got robbed of his gold. — [VIDEO]

Posted on December 19, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Posted in Business, Ethics, Finance | Tagged cash, commodities, derivative traders, derivatives, futures, Gerald Celente, gold, gold derivatives, gold futures, investing, investments, Jon Corzine, Max Keiser, metals, MF Global, Money, physical gold, precious metals | Leave a comment

BetFair loses CEO, buys back shares… and increases premium charges on big traders. — [LINK]

Posted on June 30, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Guardian: Share buybacks are a popular tactic for mature businesses and are typically employed when companies cannot think of efficient ways of deploying spare cash. However, Betfair was sold to investors in October as a company that had strong growth … Continue reading →

Posted in Business, Exchange & Market Management, Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Market Transaction Costs | Tagged BetFair, BetFair Premium Charge, BetFair Premium Charges, BetFair's premium charge, BetFair's premium charges, betting exchanges, charges, derivatives, event derivative markets, event derivatives, fees, Finance, futures, LMAX, prediction markets, shares, stock market, stocks, The Sporting Exchange | Leave a comment

Why does InTrade offer gold contracts to US customers when they signed a 2005 agreement with the CFTC not to offer commodity options to US customers? — [DOCUMENT]

Posted on June 30, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

InTrade does it. (Hat tip to a MO reader.) InTrade wasn’t authorized to trade yearly contracts. Do you, guys, have an explanation on why InTrade does it anyway? Release: 5124-05 For Release: October 4, 2005 U.S. COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION … Continue reading →