Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Fortune

About the richest 1% of Americans who own roughly half of the entire nation’s wealth

Born Rich – by Jamie Johnson

The One Percent – by Jamie Johnson

What InTrade CEO John Delaney told the CFTC about “event markets” (prediction markets)

John Delaney (CEO of InTrade) – (InTrade PDF file – CFTC PDF file):
July 4th 2008
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Three Lafayette Centre
1155 21st Street NW
Washington, DC 20581
U.S.A.
Attention: Office of the Secretariat
RE: “Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts”
To Whom it May Concern:
It is an honour for me as Chief Executive Officer of Intrade [...]

Eliot Spitzer has simply demonstrated once again that those who rise to the top of organizations are very often the most demented, conflicted individuals in any group.

The only question that remains for those who work for such people and vote for them when they run is why we continue to be grossed out, shocked and scandalized when the very personality attributes that got them to the top manifest themselves in questionable form.

Journalism Failures — Big Time


- In February 2001, Fortune magazine named ENRON the “most innovative company”.
- In October 2007, Robin Hanson, on the Overcoming Bias blog, re-published the falsehood that James Surowiecki (and 3 other book authors in their respective book) made a mistake about Francis Galton in his book, The Wisdom Of Crowds.
- In January 2008, the “BetFair [...]

Science and Technology Prediction Markets + Media–Exchange Partnerships + Software for Prediction Markets

#1. Science and Technology Prediction Markets
I hope that the Pop Sci prediction exchange will induce BetFair, TradeSports-InTrade and NewsFutures to float more science and technology event derivatives —which are “socially relevant”.
#2. Media–Exchange Partnerships
Is partnering with a media a sine qua non condition for vertical prediction markets? I used to have mixed feelings about this media–exchange [...]

The man, Michael Bloomberg, runs New York City and may have even grander ambitions.

The company, Bloomberg LP, is a prodigious success and just keeps getting stronger.
–> I recommend that you go reading this Fortune magazine story on the business behind the 250,000 Bloomberg terminals around the world.
–> There’s something I don’t get. Nowhere in this (otherwise fascinating) article do they entertain the hypothesis that the Internet could pulverize [...]

If legendary inventor Ray Kurzweil is right, the future will be a lot brighter –and weirder– than you think.

The smartest futurist on Earth – by Fortune magazine
Being a hedge fund manager may seem an odd pursuit [*] for an expert in artificial intelligence, but to Kurzweil it’s perfectly natural.
[*] It is.

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