IMPORTANT: IARPA has removed the US citizenship requirement for survey participants. – Philip E. Tetlock et al.: Prediction markets can harness the “wisdom of crowds” to solve problems, develop products, and make forecasts. These systems typically treat collective intelligence as … Continue reading →

Posted in Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Economics, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Psychology, Research | Tagged Betting, betting markets, Economics, event derivative markets, event derivatives, experts, forecasting, Forecasting (Science & Practice), forecasts, Justin Wolfers, Philip E. Tetlock, Philip Tetlock, predicting, prediction markets, Predictions, Psychology, Research | Leave a comment

Foxes are better predictors than hedgehogs. OK, BUT WHY…????… — [QUESTION]

Posted on July 17, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Here’s a question to my readers. Do you believe in intuition, and do you think that that’s the reason foxes are (a bit) better at forecasting than hedgehogs?

Posted in Individual Intelligence - Anti Consensus, Precognition, Psychology | Tagged forecast, forecasting, forecasts, foxes, hedgehogs, intuition, Precognition, predicting, prediction, Predictions, predictors | Leave a comment

Once again, Robin Hanson exaggerates the usefulness of the prediction markets. — [ANALYSIS]

Posted on June 30, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

InTrade’s prediction markets on the recent Arab revolutions didn’t bring anything interesting in our understanding of the Middle East. Robin Hanson’s insistence is absurd.

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Prediction Post-Mortem | Tagged Algeria, Arab countries, Arabs, Bahrain, bets, Betting, betting markets, bettors, Egypt, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecasting, forecasts, InTrade, Libya, Politics, predicting, prediction markets, Predictions, Robin Hanson, traders, trading, Tunisia, world politcs, Yemen | Leave a comment

FORECASTING THE ECONOMY: Keynesian Economics vs. Austrian Economics — [VIDEO]

Posted on June 14, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

The 2 videos are designed to convince you that the Austrians’ economic predictions are more accurate. The first video has an intro in French, sorry for that, but the rest of the video is in English (with French subtitles). Keynesians’ … Continue reading →

Posted in Economics, Finance, Financial Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Prediction Post-Mortem, The Global Economy | Tagged Ben Bernanke, credit, crisis, economic crisis, economic recession, Economics, economy, financial crisis, forecasts, global economy, Money, money creation, Paul Krugman, Peter Schiff, post-mortem predictions, prediction post-mortems, Predictions, real estate market, reality check, Ron Paul, stock market, stock markets, US economy, US stock market, wealth | Leave a comment

Machine learning is using a computer to recognize patterns in data, to then make predictions about new data, based the patterned recognized or learned from prior chosen training dataset. — [LINK]

Posted on June 8, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Discussion on machine learning used at Google.

Posted in Forecasting (Science & Practice), Information Technology, Inventions & Innovations, Search Engine Optimization | Tagged forecasting, forecasts, Google, Google Search, Information Technology, machine learning, predicting, Predictions, tree structures | Leave a comment

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