human computation social computing crowdsourcing wisdom of crowds (e.g., prediction markets) group memory and problem-solving deliberative democracy animal collective behavior mechanism design organizational design public policy design ethics of collective intelligence (e.g., “-digital sweatshops”-) computational models of group search and optimization emergence of intelligence new technologies for making groups smarter
Joe should mention whether there is volume on each market.
Joe should cite BetFair, not InTrade, for any UK-related event.
Joe should be aware of InTrade’-s long history of fucking up contracts and settlements on non-sporting events. (Type “-North Korea missile InTrade”- in Google, and review the various InTrade forums for traces of past fights.)
If you listened to that “-lecture”- at Kellogg, send me an anonymous e-mail to cfm &-&-AT&-&- midasoracle **+DOT+** (-com-), and tell me how it went and whether Adam has convinced you of the usefulness of enterprise prediction markets.
I previously wrote that that San Francisco vendor conference is not worth the $400 they are asking. However, in all honesty to my readers, I shall notify that they have just made one (small) change that goes in the right direction. World’-s #1 prediction market researcher Robin Hanson is now scheduled to talk about combinatorial prediction markets (a very hot topic these days) —-instead of stuff about how to quantify prediction market value (a too much theoretical issue for business people).
A vendor conference with no editorial line is unlikely to be the receptacle of the truth about enterprise prediction markets. Vendors (4 will be present) do oversell.
Please join us at the Third Workshop on Prediction Markets, in Chicago on the afternoon of July 9, 2008. We plan academic talks, an industry panel, and open discussion. Participation is open to anyone, and we hope to be as flexible as possible in allocating speaking time. See the workshop website or the full Call for Contributions and Participation for details.