Tag Archives: event derivative exchanges

PREDICTALOT IS THE LARGEST PREDICTION EXCHANGE CREATED BY NUMBER OF OUTCOMES (9.2 QUINTILLION). — [LINK]

Posted on March 15, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

http://predictalot.yahoo.com/ Predictalot on FaceBook. David Pennock: I believe it’s the largest prediction market created by number of outcomes (9.2 quintillion). We’re approximating a #P-hard problem to get the odds. More here. I believe v0.3 is faster and easier to use … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchange & Market Designs, Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets, Mechanism Designs | Tagged bets, Betting, betting exchanges, betting markets, David Pennock, derivative exchanges, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, exchanges, FaceBook, futures exchanges, March Madness, play-money betting markets, play-money prediction markets, Predictalot, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, Yahoo! | Leave a comment

Prediction markets are unable to accurately predict long-term outcomes, and they have poor records for accuracy and reliability, all of which are crucial for enterprise adoption.

Posted on January 12, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Paul Hewitt: – How far in advance can prediction markets make accurate predictions? – How will we know the point in time when a prediction is ‘accurate’? – Why are there wildly different predictions of the same outcome in different … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Market Efficiency), Analysis (Meta), Exchange & Market Designs, Exchange Liquidity, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged accuracy, bets, Betting, betting exchanges, betting markets, bettors, efficiency, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, information completeness, Paul Hewitt, precision, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, reliability, traders | Leave a comment

BetFair’s David Yu speaks. – [VIDEO]

Posted on November 22, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Download his post to watch the embedded video if your feed reader does not show it to you.

Posted in Betting, Exchanges & Markets, Gambling, Regulations | Tagged BetFair, bets, Betting, betting exchanges, betting markets, David Yu, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Gambling, horse racing, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, sport betting, The Sporting Exchange | Leave a comment

Predict X = Play-money prediction markets

Posted on November 21, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Predict X http://www.predictx.org/ FAQ Best wishes to Sebastian and Alexander.

Posted in Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged bets, betting exchanges, betting markets, derivatives, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, play-money prediction markets, Predict X, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, trading | Leave a comment

Opponents of real-money prediction markets are strong and powerful.

Posted on April 8, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Via Mike Giberson, Hollywood tries to block the Cantor Exchange. Previously.

Posted in Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets, Hedging & Insurance, Regulations | Tagged betting exchanges, betting markets, Business, Cantor Exchange, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Hedging, Hollywood Stock Exchange, HSX, movie box office, movie business, movies, prediction exchanges, prediction markets | 1 Comment

Prediction Markets APIs

Posted on March 31, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Are our betting exchanges’ APIs programmable? Fred Wilson insists on read/write APIs (#5). Any comments?

Posted in Information Technology, Internet Usability, Inventions & Innovations, Software | Tagged API, APIs, betting exchanges, betting markets, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, prediction exchanges, Prediction Market Software, prediction markets, Software, software for prediction markets | 2 Comments

BetFair’s Mark Davies (the Prince of betting exchange PR) has just gotten a second omelet in the face.

Posted on March 26, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

First, the Financial Times —and, now, Freakonomics. The journalistic rule should be that, if you cite one prediction exchange, you should cite the one that is the most liquid on the market you are writing about. For UK politics, it … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchange & Market Management, Exchange Liquidity, Exchanges & Markets, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged BetFair, betting exchanges, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, Exchange Liquidity, Freakonomics, InTrade, Mark Davies, Market Liquidity, prediction markets | 1 Comment

Cantor Exchange in the New York Times

Posted on March 13, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Richard Jaycobs uses the adjective “tremendous”. But here’s what the journalo says: But buyers beware: if â€œAvatarâ€ is any indication, the public isnâ€™t always so wise about Hollywood fortunes. Most users of HSX.com predicted a flop, and if those users … Continue reading →

Posted in Betting, Business, Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Financial Markets, Hedging & Insurance, Regulations | Tagged betting exchanges, betting markets, Business, Cantor Exchange, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Hedging, Hollywood Stock Exchange, HSX, movie box office, movie business, movies, prediction exchanges, prediction markets | Leave a comment

Mark Davies spills the beans on how BetFair became #1.

Posted on March 5, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Mark Davies: [E]veryone did it a slightly different way. it wasn’t first-mover advantage at that point, because we weren’t first! But we were first to do it with a model that aggregated demand, whereas everyone else had a different model. … Continue reading →

Posted in Business, Exchanges & Markets, History | Tagged BetFair, betting exchanges, betting markets, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, History, Mark Davis, prediction markets | Leave a comment

Predictalot = combinatorial prediction markets (a la Robin Hanson)

Posted on March 5, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Predictalot David Pennock explains Predictalot.

Posted in Exchange & Market Designs, Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets, Market Makers (Automated), Mechanism Designs | Tagged betting exchanges, betting markets, combinatorial prediction markets, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, Predictalot, prediction exchanges, prediction markets | 1 Comment

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