French bozo economist David Thesmar is hiding his 2007 Op-Ed that stated that the financial crisis wont happen.

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David Thesmar is a man of minutiae. He runs a website at his glory that lists any paper, book or editorial he has penned. Except for one.

Our French smart ass co-wrote an Op-Ed in July 2007, titled, “-The mega-crash won’-t happen”- [PDF file]. Just everything in it was wrong, as the authors were defending the same rotten financial mechanisms and lack of regulations that generated the 2008 financial crisis.

Conveniently, this Op-Ed is not listed on his website —-while all the other ones are. David Thesmar knows only one way to cover his ass —-hide things under the carpet. How courageous.

French bozo economist Augustin Landier is hiding his 2007 Op-Ed that stated that the financial crisis wont happen.

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Augustin Landier is a man of minutiae. He runs a website at his glory that lists any paper, book or editorial he has penned. Except for one.

Our French smart ass co-wrote an Op-Ed in July 2007, titled, “-The mega-crash won’-t happen”- [PDF file]. Just everything in it was wrong, as the authors were defending the same rotten financial mechanisms and lack of regulations that generated the 2008 financial crisis.

Conveniently, this Op-Ed is not listed on his website —-while all the other ones are. Augustin Landier knows only one way to cover his ass —-hide things under the carpet. How courageous.

Which industry is more detrimental to society – finance or gambling?

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Felix Salmon (#):

Finance, at least in its virulent form of the past 20 years or so. Macau is in much better shape than Iceland, or Dubai. Millions of people genuinely believe they can and will get rich by day-trading stocks and options and whatnot- the ranks of professional gamblers are much smaller and much less delusional.

HubDub: Death markets are now banned.

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HubDub:

Hubdub does not permit markets on the impending death (for example how or when) of people, or markets considered to be death tolls, unless expressly approved at the discretion of the Category Editor. This rule will apply even in the context of a mainstream news story. This rule applies to all markets created after February 10, 2009.

Nigel, welcome to Reality 2.0.

Are prediction markets on deaths and assassinations SOMETIMES acceptable?

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BELOW IS THE CHART OF A SETTLED PREDICTION MARKET:

Will Patrick Swayze die before April 15, 2008?

It was settled on “-no”-.

HubDub CEO Nigel Eccles thinks that his traders “-quickly came to the conclusion that the [early 2008] story [giving him 5 weeks to live] was bogus.”- And Nigel Eccles asks, “-Is this an example where a death pool prediction market is actually socially valuable?”-

In my view:

  1. It’-s the opinion makers external to HubDub who should decide this. If most people and/or lawmakers decide that prediction markets on deaths and assassinations are disgusting and unacceptable, then they should be pruned. We need goodwill towards the prediction markets if we want the real-money prediction markets to be legalized everywhere.
  2. Would Nigel Eccles accept a prediction market about when his wife (or kid) is going to die?
  3. Is there a social utility in knowing when exactly a celebrity is going to die (supposing that such a prediction market could be accurate)? For a head of state, a running politician, or a Justice, that information might have a value. However, in the case of a Hollywood celebrity, I don’-t see where the value lays. A prediction market on the upcoming death of a celebrity would participate in that big, stupid circus that occurs today, with paparazzi and tabloids taking an importance that they shouldn’-t have in the first place. Our youth would be better off browsing and betting on prediction markets about science and technology. We should elevate our global civilization. I don’-t see any (social or individual) benefit about knowing in advance when exactly Patrick Swayze is going to die. I am scratching my head right now —-and I still don’-t see any reason why we should spend our precious time blogging on this issue, betting on that, or collecting probabilistic predictions on that. I just don’-t. (If you have a counter argument, do publish a comment below.)
  4. The very best wishes to Patrick Swayze, by the way.

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The HubDub prediction markets on assassinations could be somewhat useful in some cases -now that I am sober and that I think of it.

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I published 3 times my opinion that it is a nuclear scandal of apocalyptic proportions that HubDub allows prediction markets on celebs’- death and assassination. My view is that this will attract strong criticism from people who are very strict on the issue of morality. And the prediction markets don’-t need another polemique at this time.

But after reading Medemi’-s comment, popped up an idea in my mind. Medemi tells about the assassination of Pim Fortuyn, an extremist politician in Holland —-who received many death threats and did not get appropriate protection. His assassination was predictable. (He was indeed gunned down during a political campaign.) If, at the time, a prediction market had been opened on the likelihood of his violent death, the high probabilities would have attracted attention —-and, as a result, maybe the Police would have granted Pim Fortuyn a special protection.

What do you think?

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