Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Dublin

The Case for Decrimininalization of Prediction Markets

[This article is cross-posted from Major Wager.]
-
A recent article in the prestigious academic journal Science (May 16, 2008, Vol 320, p. 877-8) once again makes the case for regulated prediction markets, more commonly known as “betting exchanges” to online gamblers. The authors make the case that such markets are useful in forecasting future events with [...]

Professor Koleman Strumpf tells CNN that a prediction market, by essence, can’t predict an upset.

CNN:
FOREMAN: I’ve got something I want you to take a look at. Look at this. It could be the price of a stock or a mutual fund. It isn’t. It’s the odds that a particular candidate, the red here is Hillary Clinton, who will become president of the United States. It’s called the predictive market. [...]

Prediction Market Journalism

Credit: Scientific American magazine – Abstract
Via Mat Fogarty of Xpree (an innovative firm providing software for enterprise prediction markets)
Ask me by e-mail to get a copy of the PDF file.
-
The problem with the bold statement in the last sentence of the SciAm excerpt above is that Justin Wolfers’ articles in the Wall Street Journal (covering [...]

Prediction Markets vs. Bookmakers — The Ultimate Argument

Las Vegas Sun:
“The bookie’s odds will be influenced by his appetite for risk, the action he’s got on his side and his own bias,” said John Delaney, chief executive officer of Dublin-based Intrade.com, the world’s largest prediction market. “If I were to ask you where you would find the expected value of IBM, would you [...]

InTrade-TradeSports are fucking up contracts, once again.

Once again.
I have been inundated with complaints from InTrade traders, since Christmas. Here’s the problem. InTrade traders tell me that the expiration dates for the Bloomberg and Gore announcement contracts have been extended —at InTrade’s whim. The contract statements, I’m told, said they would expire on December 22, 2007. At this time, InTrade did not [...]

Prediction Market History + Prediction Market Journalism

The New York Times:
[...] Long before political prediction markets sprouted on the Internet, election bets — whether the stakes were money or embarrassing public spectacles — were a ubiquitous part of the American political scene. The practice, which began informally with petty stakes in pool halls in the late 19th century, was by 1900 a [...]

Interesting information about BetFair I found out on their corporate website

BetFair Corporate:
Corporate and Operational Overview
Corporate Overview
Betfair is a registered bookmaker in the UK, where it operates an online betting exchange. Betfair also operates under licences in Australia, Austria and Malta and is seeking licences elsewhere within the European Union and further afield, notably in South Africa. Betfair welcomes regulation and is committed to paying the [...]

The law of one price

The law of one price is an economic law stated as: “In an efficient market all identical goods must have only one price.”
The intuition for this law is that all sellers will flock to the highest prevailing price, and all buyers to the lowest current market price. In an efficient market the convergence on one [...]

ALL our real-money prediction exchanges (betting exchanges) have a play-money ground.

BetFair – (Hammersmith, London, England, United Kingdom, E.U.)

BetFair Play For Fun
Only English Soccer

[...]

Are punters sophisticated?

A leading Irish bookmaker (BetChronicle), with close associations to the Dublin-based, betting exchange, Betdaq, has put up a best price offer of 2.75 Tiger Woods to win the US masters (to 130 sterling), against an available price to lay on Betfair of 2.58.
A sure fire way of backing a winner, but is the price being [...]

Search

Post Categories