Tag Archives: Dublin

The Case for Decrimininalization of Prediction Markets

Posted on June 26, 2008 by Jay Graziani

[This article is cross-posted from Major Wager.] – A recent article in the prestigious academic journal Science (May 16, 2008, Vol 320, p. 877-8) once again makes the case for regulated prediction markets, more commonly known as “betting exchanges” to … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Industry), Exchanges & Markets, Regulations | Tagged Bear Sterns, BetFair, CFTC, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, decision-making tool, Dublin, economist, Enron, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event markets, federal law, Internet casinos, Internet Gambling Enforcement Act, internet gambling laws, InTrade, Iowa, Iraq, Jay Graziani, Justin Wolfers, laws, Major, MATCHBOOK, Middle East, National Basketball Association, NBA, oil, oil crisis, online gamblers, online prediction markets, Pennsylvania, Pentagon, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, profit-making tools, real-money prediction exchanges, real-money prediction markets, Regulations, S&P 500, sports betting, Stanford, the Science, The University of Iowa, the University of Pennsylvania, TradeSports, United States, United States Congress, Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006, Wager, Wharton School, Yale | 1 Comment

Professor Koleman Strumpf tells CNN that a prediction market, by essence, can’t predict an upset.

Posted on April 22, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

CNN: FOREMAN: I’ve got something I want you to take a look at. Look at this. It could be the price of a stock or a mutual fund. It isn’t. It’s the odds that a particular candidate, the red here … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Explainers | Tagged accuracy, CNN, crude oil, director of the Sports Book, Dublin, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Forecasting (Science & Practice), FOREMAN, Hillary Clinton, historical prediction markets, InTrade, Iowa, Iowa Electronic Markets, Ireland, JOHN AVELLO, Johnny Avello, Kansas, Koleman Strumpf, Las Vegas, Madame Tussaud's Wax Museum, online markets, particular candidate, prediction markets, President, president of the United States, Professor, surprise, the New York Times, United States, University of Kansas, University of Kansas School of Business, upset, USD, Wall Street, Washington, Wisconsin, WYNN, WYNN HOTEL | 3 Comments

Prediction Market Journalism

Posted on March 1, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Credit: Scientific American magazine – Abstract Via Mat Fogarty of Xpree (an innovative firm providing software for enterprise prediction markets) Ask me by e-mail to get a copy of the PDF file. – The problem with the bold statement in … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Prediction Journalism | Tagged business professor, Chapel Hill, Charles Evans Hughes, Dublin, event derivative markets, event derivatives, InTrade.com, Journalism, Justin Wolfers, Las Vegas, New York, North Carolina, online prediction markets, Paul Rhode, Pennsylvania, prediction market journalism, prediction markets, professor of economic history, Scientific American, secondary forecasting tools, The New York Herald Tribune, the New York Times, the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, The Wall Street Journal, United States, University of North Carolina, USD, Wall Street Journal, Woodrow Wilson, Xpree | 6 Comments

Prediction Markets vs. Bookmakers — The Ultimate Argument

Posted on January 16, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Las Vegas Sun: â€œThe bookieâ€™s odds will be influenced by his appetite for risk, the action heâ€™s got on his side and his own bias,â€ said John Delaney, chief executive officer of Dublin-based Intrade.com, the worldâ€™s largest prediction market. â€œIf … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Finance | Tagged bookmakers, broker, Chief Executive Officer, Dublin, event derivative markets, event derivatives, IBM, InTrade, InTrade.com, John Delaney, prediction markets | Leave a comment

InTrade-TradeSports are fucking up contracts, once again.

Posted on January 2, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Once again. I have been inundated with complaints from InTrade traders, since Christmas. Here’s the problem. InTrade traders tell me that the expiration dates for the Bloomberg and Gore announcement contracts have been extended —at InTrade’s whim. The contract statements, … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Exchanges & Markets, Market Contract Statements, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Al Gore, Bloomberg, Carl Wolfenden, Christmas, contracts, date, Dublin, Dublin's main street, exchange manager, independent candidate, InTrade, Manager Intrade Exchange Operations, Market Expiry, mayor, media sources, Michael Bloomberg, New York, Politics, prediction markets, President, Trader, United States, US elections, US politics, USD, Wall Street Journal | Leave a comment

Prediction Market History + Prediction Market Journalism

Posted on November 4, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

The New York Times: [...] Long before political prediction markets sprouted on the Internet, election bets â€” whether the stakes were money or embarrassing public spectacles â€” were a ubiquitous part of the American political scene. The practice, which began … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Exchanges & Markets, History, Prediction Journalism | Tagged bet exchanges, betting exchanges, business professor, Chapel Hill, Charles Evans Hughes, Dublin, event derivative markets, event derivatives, History, InTrade.com, Justin Wolfers, Las Vegas, New York, news media, North Carolina, online prediction markets, Paul Rhode, Pennsylvania, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, professor of economic history, The New York Herald Tribune, the New York Times, the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, United States, University of North Carolina, USA, USD, Wall Street, Woodrow Wilson | 1 Comment

Interesting information about BetFair I found out on their corporate website

Posted on September 25, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

BetFair Corporate: Corporate and Operational Overview Corporate Overview Betfair is a registered bookmaker in the UK, where it operates an online betting exchange. Betfair also operates under licences in Australia, Austria and Malta and is seeking licences elsewhere within the … Continue reading →

Posted in Business, Ethics, Exchanges & Markets, Regulations, Software | Tagged A. Betfair, Andrew Black, API, Australia, Austria, Betfair Australasia PTY Limited, Betfair Casino Limited, Betfair Counterparty Services Limited, BetFair Games, Betfair Games Limited, Betfair Ltd, Betfair Poker Limited, Chancellors Road, Confederation of British Industry Growing Business, cricket, Denmark, Department of Trade and Industry, Dublin, eBay, Ed, Edward Wray, Europe, European Union, football, Germany, golf, Google, Hammersmith Embankment Winslow Road, Hobart, horse racing, internet access, JP Morgan, London, London Stock Exchange, Malta, New York Stock Exchange, non-executive chairman, online betting exchange, online casino, online poker sites, Oracle, Queen, satellite offices, soccer, software tools, South Africa, sports betting exchange product, Sun Solaris, Tasmania, Tasmanian Gaming Commission, tennis, The Sporting Exchange Limited, TSE, TSE Development Ltd, United Kingdom, United States, vice president, Wales | Leave a comment

The law of one price

Posted on May 21, 2007 by Niall O'Connor

The law of one price is an economic law stated as: “In an efficient market all identical goods must have only one price.” The intuition for this law is that all sellers will flock to the highest prevailing price, and … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged Betchronicle, Champions League Final, Dublin, economic law, Ireland, Liverpool | Leave a comment

ALL our real-money prediction exchanges (betting exchanges) have a play-money ground.

Posted on April 14, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

BetFair – (Hammersmith, London, England, United Kingdom, E.U.) BetFair Play For Fun Only English Soccer TradeSports – (The Netherlands Antilles) Play-Money TradeSports â€” PredictionX â€” Launched in February 2006. InTrade – (Dublin, Ireland, E.U.) FT Predict â€” (play-money InTrade with … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets | Tagged avian influenza, California, City, Delaware, Dublin, influenza, Iowa, Iowa City, Ireland, London, Netherlands Antilles, San Mateo, the Financial Times, The Netherlands Antilles, United Kingdom, United States | Leave a comment

Are punters sophisticated?

Posted on April 3, 2007 by Niall O'Connor

A leading Irish bookmaker (BetChronicle), with close associations to the Dublin-based, betting exchange, Betdaq, has put up a best price offer of 2.75 Tiger Woods to win the US masters (to 130 sterling), against an available price to lay on … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Betting, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged Dublin, GBP, online punters, United States | 1 Comment

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