Tag Archives: Collective Intelligence

New Hampshire prediction markets screwed up political forecasting in 2008. Will they be right this time? — [CHARTS]

Posted on January 10, 2012 by Chris F. Masse

The political prediction markets got the Democratic race wrong in New Hampshire, last time. More here. – New Hampshire – The Democrats – The Hillary Clinton event derivative was expired to 100. – New Hampshire – The Republicans – The … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged 2008 New Hampshire Presidential Primary, 2008 US presidential elections, accuracy, Barack Obama, betting markets, Collective Intelligence, democrats, event derivative markets, event derivatives, events, Hillary Clinton, idea futures, indicators, John McCain, New Hampshire, polls, prediction markets, US presidential elections, US primaries, wisdom of crowds | 1 Comment

Keeping score of experts’ forecasts — [VIDEO]

Posted on December 12, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Philip Tetlock:

Posted in Forecasting (Science & Practice), Psychology | Tagged Collective Intelligence, expertise, experts, forecasting, forecasts, Philip Tetlock, predicting, Predictions, Psychology, wisdom of crowds | Leave a comment

Ex-HSX Max Keiser claims that InTrade’s Ron Paul prediction market is manipulated. — [VIDEO]

Posted on September 7, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Posted in Analysis (Market Calls), Betting, Exchange & Market Management, Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Financial Markets, Market Makers (Human), Market Prices & Probabilities, News, Politics | Tagged Alex Jones, Betting, betting markets, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, event derivative market, event derivatives, forecasting, Hollywood Stock Exchange, HSX, manipulation, market manipulation, Max Keiser, Politics, predicting, prediction market, prediction markets, radio, Ron Paul, US politics | Leave a comment

Take 2 in-vogue concepts (which you don’t master), and mix them together. Then, call your PR agent, and try to infiltrate the media to pump up your org. — [VIDEO]

Posted on September 3, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

The two keywords to flag to the media are: – collective intelligence, – climate change (a.k.a. global warming).

Posted in Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds | Tagged climate change, Collective Intelligence, global warming, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, MIT, MIT Center for Collective Intelligence, Robert Laubacher | Leave a comment

What uses for the prediction markets on geopolitical events? — [ANALYSIS]

Posted on September 1, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

–> Well researched and balanced article from London School of Economics’s Matthew Partridge: The intelligence and security community also has mixed views. John F McCreary, the Chief Analysis Officer for KGS Security, who had a senior role at the United … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged Betting, betting markets, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecasting, London School of Economics, Matthew Partridge, Mike Smithson, predicting, prediction markets | Leave a comment

Emile Servan-Schreiber’s Lumenogic (ex-NewsFutures) harnesses the wisdom of crowds (scientists and engineers) for the US Air Force. — [LINK]

Posted on September 1, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Emile Servan-Schreiber (cited in Bloomberg story): Every company faces the challenge of [finding out] what our company really knows — how do I access it, when I need it, how I need it — to help drive decision-making or results … Continue reading →

Posted in Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Consulting, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged Betting, betting markets, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, Emile Servan-Schreiber, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Lumenogic, NewsFutures, prediction markets, US Air Force, wisdom of crowds | Leave a comment

How prediction markets help forecast consumers’ behaviors — [REPORT]

Posted on August 10, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Forrester Research’s Roxana Strohmenger has been caught red hand sucking up to our Paul Hewitt. Roxana Strohmenger (e-mail me at chrisfmasse at gmail dot com to get a copy of the report): At the end of the day, a prediction … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Business, Cases, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Consulting, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged Betting, betting markets, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, derivatives, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecasting, forecasting efficiency, forecasting precision, information completeness, markets, precision, predicting, prediction efficiency, prediction markets, prediction precision | 2 Comments

Your prediction markets can power the American Civics Exchange. — [IDEA MILL]

Posted on August 4, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

American Civics Exchange: Having just executed an initial round of closings for the funding we’ve been raising, we’re entering the final run-up to our real-money trading launch. With that in mind, we’ve launched a community feature where prospective traders (and … Continue reading →

Posted in Betting, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchange & Market Management, Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets, Market Genesis | Tagged All Rockets Ready To Fly, American Civics Exchange, betting markets, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, event derivative markets, event derivatives, exchange genesis, forecasting, genesis, IDEAS, market genesis, predicting, prediction, prediction markets, Predictions, proposals | Leave a comment

Paul Hewitt on the usefulness of the prediction markets — [ANALYSIS]

Posted on August 2, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Paul Hewitt: I don’t think there is any question that the usefulness of prediction markets has been exaggerated. We don’t hear much from James Surowiecki anymore. So a few of those polled probably indicated that he doesn’t exaggerate the usefulness … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged betting markets, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, derivatives, Economics, economics bloggers, economists, event derivative markets, event derivatives, James Surowiecki, Justin Wolfers, Kauffman Foundation, poll, polls, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, survey, surveys, usefulness, usefulness of prediction markets | Leave a comment

Have Robin Hanson, Justin Wolfers and James Surowiecki been exaggerating the usefulness of the prediction markets? — [SURVEY RESULT]

Posted on July 28, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Here’s the result of the Kauffman Foundation poll: – UPDATE: Here’s an example (among many) of the grave problems with prediction markets, which are unreported by the media. – PDF document. – - – - – - – - – … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Economics, Exchanges & Markets, The Global Economy | Tagged betting markets, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, derivatives, Economics, economics bloggers, economists, event derivative markets, event derivatives, James Surowiecki, Justin Wolfers, Kauffman Foundation, poll, polls, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, survey, surveys, usefulness, usefulness of prediction markets | 1 Comment

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