Tag Archives: Collective Intelligence
Libertarian journalist John Stossel explained InTrade’s prediction markets, and forgot BetFair.
ABC News, in 2008:
Hyping enterprise prediction markets in Mashable
Matt Fogarty of CrowdCast:
Business leaders rely on metrics and data to inform decisions around new products and opportunities, but traditional forecasting methods suffer from bias and lack of first-hand information. That’s why business forecasting is an ideal target for the application of crowd wisdom. While bets are made anonymously, some prediction market software applications [...]
In spite of Robin Hanson’s pumping them up, very few companies use enterprise prediction markets.
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McKinsey:
While respondents tell us that tapping expert knowledge from outside is their top priority, few report deploying prediction markets to harvest collective insights from these external networks.
#FAIL
Debate is raging between Robin Hanson and the futarchy critics
- Robin Hanson comments on Paul Hewitt’s blog.
- Paul Hewitt comments on Eric Crampton’s blog.
- Paul Hewitt comments on Robin Hanson’s blog. Many exchanges with Robin Hanson. Read it all.
- Paul Hewitt:
[...] My point is that the case for prediction markets has not been made, at all. There is a tiny bit of proof that [...]
Robin Hanson: Prediction markets are interesting as forums, not methods.
“Prediction markets aren’t about emphasizing ordinary Joes over credentialed bigshots; they are about emphasizing whomever [] tends to be right.”
CrowdCast CEO Mat Fogarty on how his company is helping businesses make better-informed decisions [VIDEO]
Good questions, good answers:
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External Links:
- CrowdCast
- CFO Prediction Market
- Matt Fogarty’s twitter – [Midas Oracle's twitter]
Previously:
- CrowdCast = Collective Forecasting = Collective Intelligence That Predicts
- CrowdCast = market mechanism = binary spreads with [...]
Implementing a prediction market within a company means changing the way information flows by widening the people in the know and accepting to be occasionally second-guessed by the market.
“Some corporate cultures aren’t ready to accept that yet.”
Crowdsourcing the US government
Analysis of the US President’s SAVE Award.
LiveMocks employs a “wisdom of the crowd” technique to predict the order of the NFL and NBA drafts.
Live Mocks –> http://livemocks.com/
Contact Brian Boyd for more info.
http://twitter.com/livemocks
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Live-Mocks/282396780436
Idea Pageants are no Prediction Markets.
An explanatory post by Paul Hewitt.
Paul, don’t talk about “shares”. The right vocabulary is “event derivatives” — or, in other contexts, “event derivative markets” and “prediction markets”.
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