Tag Archives: Christmas

You can’t have accumulator bets on the weather of neighboring regions…

… because “if it snows in one city, it’s likely to snow in another city.” In other words, these weren’t independent events. Via Barry Ritholtz (author of Bailout Nation)

Posted in Betting | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Robin Hanson could have drafted a petition asking for totally free prediction markets, but he didn’t —alas.

The unrepentant Robin Hanson: So, if the kid who lives in that big house on the hill got a horse last Christmas, your Christmas list this year will include a horse, and you’ll be hopping mad if you don’t get … Continue reading

Posted in Politics, Regulations | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Prediction markets = “the future of journalism” —said, from day one, Emile Servan-Schreiber of NewsFutures. Emile, if you have balls, let’s do it —all together.

My yesterday’s post about the Obama–Clinton prediction markets was the most popular Midas Oracle story of that Monday. Hummmm… No idea why… I was not helped by Google Search or by an external blogger. Sounds like our Midas Oracle web … Continue reading

Posted in Entrepreneurship, Midas Oracle Project, Prediction Journalism | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 10 Comments

Robin Hanson teaches Chris Masse how to make a bad CFTC compromise.

The unrepentant Robin Hanson: Chris, you’ve heard of Christmas I presume. Many people circulate lists of items they might like for Christmas. If you did, would you circulate a list of million franc/dollar gift ideas for people to give you? … Continue reading

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Regulations | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments

An Atlanta hair saloon is one of the many satisfied clients of WeatherBill.

Via Steve Roman, The Atlanta Journal – Constitution: [...] Atlanta hair salon owners Ray Luciano and Spencer Malay recently reeled in a bundle — tens of thousands of dollars — after taking out insurance-like coverage called “weather derivatives.” Their Buckhead … Continue reading

Posted in Betting, Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Hedging & Insurance, Money | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Who did best in explaining the prediction markets to the lynching crowd?

After the New Hampshire fiasco, 16 18 people came to defend the prediction markets, so far. So far, the best takes are from: George Tziralis Robin Hanson Jonathan Kennedy and I’ll give the 4th spot to a combo, mixing takes … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta) | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Divergence between InTrade and BetFair political prices??

I have been inundated by e-mails asking me to comment on the Crooked Timber posting on arbitrage possibility between InTrade and BetFair on US presidential elections. My answer: I would rather see such a study on long series —as Justin … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments

InTrade-TradeSports are fucking up contracts, once again.

Once again. I have been inundated with complaints from InTrade traders, since Christmas. Here’s the problem. InTrade traders tell me that the expiration dates for the Bloomberg and Gore announcement contracts have been extended —at InTrade’s whim. The contract statements, … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Exchanges & Markets, Market Contract Statements, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

The Robert Scoble Experiment With Google Reader —Prediction Market Edition

Some of you may read Robert Scoble —a smart IT blogger and podcaster. If you have been reading his blog lately, you know that he is experiencing with having many “friends” (read it: ‘online acquaintances’) with whom he shares feed … Continue reading

Posted in Information Technology, Midas Oracle Administration | Tagged , , , , , , | 5 Comments

Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) would free our prediction markets.

December 23, 2007: Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) – Meet the Press – TRANSCRIPT VIDEO: MP4 – WMV AUDIO: MP3 Hurry up to download the video or audio file(s) above. Will stay up on their website only for one week. YouTube: … Continue reading

Posted in Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments