U.S. regulators unveiled a series of proposed governance rules for derivatives clearinghouses and trading platforms that are designed to protect the market.

The proposals by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission would be the first major step by the agency toward regulating the opaque $615 trillion over-the-counter derivatives market.

Sports Risk Index would allow you to hedge risks on sport prediction markets.

The patent.

The latest developments. (audio)

I am skeptical, since the US Congress has just outlawed movie prediction markets, but I wish good luck to Chris Rabelais et al. Maybe the political scene will be different next year, who knows.

UPDATE: As you’-ve understood, I was talking about CFTC-approved real-money prediction markets, here.

Sports Risk Index would allow you to hedge risks on sport prediction markets.

The patent.

The latest developments. (audio)

I am skeptical, since the US Congress has just outlawed movie prediction markets, but I wish good luck to Chris Rabelais et al. Maybe the political scene will be different next year, who knows.

UPDATE: As you’ve understood, I was talking about CFTC-approved real-money prediction markets, here.

Liberal politicians (sucking up to the Hollywood lobby) have managed to destroy one promising financial innovation applied to the movie business.

Cantor Fitzgerald abandoning box-office futures despite regulatory approval.

CNBC: The End of the Box Office Futures Business

The Wrap

CFTC Takes Jurisdiction Over Prediction Markets.

First, a hearty congratulations to Robert Swagger and Trend Exchange. Along with the Cantor Exchange folks, they have run quite a gauntlet, and although there remains a tremendous obstacle in the form of the Lincoln amendment, I consider these exchanges to have already accomplished a great deal.

In its approval of Trend Exchange and preceding statements, the CFTC has confirmed a very broad definition of “-commodity”- that includes “-event”- contracts. The old debate about whether or not the CFTC has jurisdiction over “-prediction markets”- has been decided for now. Yet, there is considerable dissent within the Commission. Commissioners Chilton and Sommers have expressed disapproval that the Commission did not first address the general questions raised in the 2008 Concept Release. To this point, given the very broad definition of “-commodity,”- it now seems that Intrade and online sports exchanges could be in violation of the Commodity Exchange Act. The Commission does not consider an “-economic purpose test”- in the contract review process, and there is no statutory basis for such a test being used in jurisdictional determinations. Perhaps as a matter of practice, in accordance with the spirit of the Act, the Commission is considering such a test for jurisdicitional questions as I suggested in my Concept Release comments (surprisingly cited by the MPAA group). Otherwise, it seems inconsistent that exchange-traded sports bets, for example, would not also be considered commodities and be subject to the Act.

As a whole, the Commission has apparently decided to defer such questions and focus on specific techniques for ensuring that the new contracts fulfill the Act from the standpoints of manipulation and fair trading. To these ends, the CFTC will require, “-entities and individuals who control a film’s marketing budget, release date or opening screen number to provide the Exchange with information regarding such decisions whenever that entity or individual holds a position of 1,000 or more contracts.”- Additionally, the Commission will require a “-firewall”- within studios and distributors, and has restricted certain employees from trading altogether. These are procedures that I had recommended for event contracts, but they are relatively novel mechanisms in the commodities world. Whether or not the CFTC would agree to support special trading restrictions was the pivotal question in whether the contracts would be approved. I applaud the principled, politically independent thinking of the Commission and the can-do attitude of the Market Oversight Division —- though some headline risk has been assumed here if something should eventually fall through the cracks.

BREAKING: The CFTC approves MDEXs real-money prediction markets on movie box office.

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“-In a 3-2 vote, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Monday afternoon approved a contract created by the company Media Derivatives that would allow traders to bet on the gross receipts that a movie pulls in during its opening weekend.”-

UPDATE:

- NYT

- WSJ

- Felix Salmon

- “-If we approve these types of things on the arguments posed in favor of them, we could be approving things like death pools or terrorism contracts, something Congress surely never intended.”-

- Hollywood Reporter

- AP

- CNBC

- AFP

CFTC: 3-2 in favor of approval of movie contracts -SO FAR.

What was said at the CFTC hearing on movie futures.

Hollywood Reporter.

Business Week. More.

CFTC.

Hollywood clashed with Wall Street on Wednesday at a government hearing about the potential sale of futures contracts linked to box office receipts of major motion pictures.

“-financial engineering synthetic derivatives”-

More.

The CFTC plans to hold a public hearing next week to examine the growing controversy surrounding a plan by two firms to offer futures contracts tied to box-office receipts.

The CFTC plans to hold a public hearing next week to examine the growing controversy surrounding a plan by two firms to offer futures contracts tied to box-office receipts.

Every investment in film is gambling.

A Case for Movie Futures –- by Buzz Potamkin, former studio executive and producer, in the biz for 40+ years, now a consultant