Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Caveat Bettor

Caveat Bettor is still into global warming prediction markets.

Caveat Bettor
Spot the global warming prediction markets on the right side.
Cav, by the way, congrats for your PageRank of 5/10.

A new blog on InTrade’s prediction markets: Prediction (Market) Insights

Prediction (Market) Insights… by Anonymous
Best wishes to him/her. I hope that he/she will reveal his/her ID in the future. “Wiser Than The Crowd” is the wrong role model in that regard, triple alas.
Addendum:
Thanks to my Deep Throats, I know roughly who “Wiser Than The Crowd” is. He did not lie. He indeed works for a [...]

The hype is over. The party is over. — Part IV

Caveat Bettor does not feature one single post on prediction markets on his blog frontpage.
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A great blog on prediction markets

Just a reminder, for our new readers:
- Among others, I highly recommend the blog of our good friend Caveat Bettor.
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Why didn’t you bet with the crowd, then? You could have made a killing at the time when Joe Biden was under 50.

Barack Obama + Joe Biden — THE PREDICTION MARKETS NAILED IT… triple alas (for my reputation as a world-wide prediction market pundit, and for the debate on the different quality of the various primary indicators out there).

“Friend — I have some important news that I want to make official. I’ve chosen Joe Biden to be my running mate.”
Some blogger says his wife is fantastic.
New York Times portrait of Joe Biden.
UPDATE: Barack Obama’s speech + Joe Biden’s speech
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I think it is the worst pick ever. What a blunder. Joe Biden (a D.C. [...]

ENDLESS VEEPSTAKES: Why you should never trade on VP prediction markets, and why their probabilistic predictions are as stochastic as Paris Hilton’s daily dress picks.

As I explained in early June 2008, the VP speculations that appear in the Press should never be taken seriously. Most of them (and you don’t know which ones) are a big orchestration of pure lies aimed at creating publicity, or wicked lies in the form of trial balloons. The aims of the political campaigns [...]

Steve Levitt and Koleman Strumpf in the news

Via our good friend Caveat Bettor.
It’s a complicated affair. I can’t sum it up for you. Go scanning it, if you’re curious.
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Best wishes to Steve Levitt and Koleman Strumpf.
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“What public purpose is served in the oversight of these [event derivative] markets and what differentiates these [event derivative] markets from pure gambling outside the CFTC’s jurisdiction?”

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My short thoughts on the CFTC announcement:

Nothing new..
No good. Sports prediction markets won’t be allowed by the CFTC (no matter), and, thus, the US-based event derivative exchanges will never be profitable. (Remember that HedgeStreet V1 went into bankruptcy, even though they were well funded.)
Going forward, we are going to see an opposition between people (like [...]

I can be bombastic sometimes, but I can also be polite and respectful at other times.

Caveat Bettor,
In my post, I said that I “respect” him “as a Wall Street professional and as a libertarian blogger.”
How more “agreeable” should I have been???…
On top of that, his name is listed here.
As for responding to him, I will do once he links back to that piece of mine —and not to an empty [...]

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