Markets bring people together, they sum up their information and transmit it through prices.
[A prediction market is] a tool which can aggregate the opinions and knowledge of the many and transform these into a meaningful result.
Markets arise as the ideal tool to crowdsource cognitive tasks and arrive at consensus results which are typically proven to be more accurate or correct than the opinions of the few experts, as suggested by both theory, experiments and practice.
I would rather say: Trust the experts, but do use an information aggregation mechanism to average their forecasts, so that you eliminate extreme forecasts.
George Tziralis should have refined a bit the statement he made in the first video below —statement which I have slightly modified in the title above. We need inputs from the primary, advanced indicators, the experts, and the prediction markets. We need all of that. The prediction markets will never eliminate either the polls or the experts. The prediction markets come as a supplement in the mix.
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Aiming at providing high-quality prediction markets services, both of unique elegance and zero learning curve, we plan to start deploying by going deep. And by deep we don’t refer to techcrunch, or walmart (yet), but to the biggest active community of prediction markets experts, midas oracle.
So, we start by giving you, the most demanding audience for such a service, early access to first stress-test askmarkets and to email us your impressions, proposals and bugs you encountered (we bet there are still some hiding somewhere), before really going ‘wild’, ..em public. Just navigate to our homepage, enter your email and password ‘midasoracle’ and the first 50 of you will get in (we’ll also invite the latecomers later on).
